Rabu, 02 November 2011

Updates From The Epicenter: Rumors of War

The constant news regarding an Israeli plan to 'attack' Iran seems almost excessive now, leading one to wonder just why so many news reports are being circulated. Just this afternoon:

Israel Considers Pre-Emptive Attack On Iran

The debate over possible Israeli military action has reached fever pitch in recent days with newspaper leader columns discussing the benefits and dangers of hitting Iran.

Mr Lieberman responded to the reports of a push to gain cabinet approval by saying that "Iran poses the most dangerous threat to world order."

But prime minister Netanyahu has repeatedly warned that all options are on the table.

Any strike on Iran could trigger retaliation from Iran and across the region.
Syria, a close ally of Tehran, could also launch attacks, along with the Iranian-backed Hizbollah militia in Lebanon.


Report: West Ready to Attack Iran

A report in the British Guardian newspaper Wednesday said that the U.S. and the UK were gearing up for a possible attack on Iran. According to the report, the U.S. has become increasingly frustrated – and concerned – over Iran's refusal to end its enrichment of uranium. Britain has agreed to help, despite some members of the British government being opposed to providing such assistance.

"In anticipation of a potential attack, British military planners are examining where best to deploy Royal Navy ships and submarines equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles over the coming months as part of what would be an air- and sea-launched campaign,” the article says

According to the Guardian, the decision to strike Iran came about as the result of the successful campaign that resulted in the dethroning of Muammar Qaddafi as dictator of Libya.


And this interesting tidbit:

Coinciding with the Guardian report, other reports said that Israel was planning its own incursion against Iran. After reports of a successful long-range military mission in Sardinia surfaced Wednesday, media rumors said that IDF troops had undertaken what was essentially a “dry run” of an attack against Iran.


Are Israel's military drills preparation for an Iran strike?

...one cannot ignore the proximity of these events, together with the continuing operational work on the Iron Dome systems in Gaza and in northern Israel, the acceleration of the Magic Wand and Arrow 3 defense systems – and naturally the public discourse over the last few days concerning the possibility of a strike on Iran.

All these elements – with differing degrees of planning - provide the background music in a concert of a military apparatus preparing for a possible large-scale operation.


The speed in which events are unfolding, and the advancement of the IDF and military industries' development and training programs, often result in such a combination – drills simulating long-range attacks and drills simulating missile attacks on population centers. Such coincidences have occurred quite often in the past, and they will happen again in the future.

Yet when such a coincidence occurs alongside a whirlwind of news and an unprecedented public discussion concerning the decision-making process at the top echelon of Israel's political-military pyramid, it is hard to ignore the feeling that there are some elements who are trying these days to highlight every drill and maximize their gains.


Report: U.K. preparing for military strike on Iran nuclear facilities

The U.K. is stepping up its preparations for a military strike on Iran, the Guardian newspaper reported on Wednesday. According to the report, the U.K. is increasingly concerned over Tehran's nuclear program, and is preparing to deploy Royal Navy ships in the coming months to assist a possible U.S. attack on key facilities in Iran.

Responding to reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been trying to gain a majority in the cabinet for an attack on Iran, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff of Iran's armed forces, Hassan Firouzabadi, warned both Israel and the U.S. against such a move.

Meanwhile, the Israel Air Force continues conducting comprehensive drills on long-range attacks.


Debka adds this analysis to the discussion and it makes a lot of sense:

A military war of nerves against Iran: The US leads Israel and UK go along

The sudden rush of military news Wednesday, Nov. 2, was part of an orchestrated Western performance to persuade Tehran that the US, Britain and Israel are on the verge of a military operation against its nuclear installations.

The show, directed from Washington, was meant to warn Iran that military punishment was in store unless it gives up its drive for a nuclear weapon.

Contributing to the menacing climate hanging over Iran were four headline events involving Israel – all on the same Wednesday: Israel conducted a successful test launch of a new intercontinental ballistic missile, Jericho 3, which foreign sources report is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead 7,000 kilometers.

After that, the IDF released photographs of Israeli Air Force squadron leaders reporting from Italian air base runways to the media on joint exercises they had conducted in long-range maneuvers with the Italian air force "and other NATO nations," to familiarize the IAF with NATO military tactics.

The inference was clear: The Israeli Air Force was strengthening its cooperation with Western allies in preparation for a NATO assault on Iran. The IAF also got a chance to study the lessons Western alliance air force tacticians had drawn from the eight-month Libyan operation which ended on Oct. 31.

Finally, Defense Minister Ehud Barak left for an unscheduled trip to London shortly after a secret visit to Israel by the British chief of staff General Sir David Richards earlier this week as guest of Israel's top soldier Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz.

If the British general was in Israel only this week, why was Barak is such a hurry to visit London?

The answer came from the British media, which reported as soon as he arrived that the Ministry of Defense in London had accelerated and upgraded its contingency planning for participation in a US-led assault on Iran
.


And below, we may be seeing the 'bottom line' on the whole issue involving Iran:

This whirlwind of military activity was said to have been prompted by the approaching publication of the International Atomic Energy Agency's Iran report next Tuesday, Nov. 8 and the conclusion the nuclear watchdog had reached: Inside 12 months, Iran will have tucked all its nuclear and ballistic missile facilities away in deep underground tunnels where they will be invulnerable to attack.


And below we see some related articles from the region - all serving to increase tensions:

Report: IDF Given Green Light in Gaza

Israel test-fires missile as Iran debate rages

Israel Navy tracks new Gaza-bound flotilla

Netanyahu: Israel Has a Right to Build in Jerusalem

Hamas Urges Abbas to 'Return to Resistance'

The situation with Iran may simply be an engagement of brinksmanship at this point. If that is the case, then it is a very dangerous game, as Iran could decide to go ahead and begin things themselves - perhaps even using their proxies (Lebanon, Gaza, Syria. Egypt etc). Or perhaps this isn't brinksmanship - but if tangible plans are really being made to attack Iran, why would they be so publicized?

There may be a period of prolonged warning, similar to the warnings that the U.S. issued to Iraq prior it the first Iraq war.

Either way, there is a lot of volatility now, to say the least. Rumors of war are rampant right now.

"You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed."
(Matthew 24:6)

"When you hear of wars and revolutions, do not be frightened.
(Luke 21:9)

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