Ukraine Facing Gas Cut Off By This Weekend

Reuters/Valentyn Ogirenko

Bloomberg: Gazprom Says Ukraine’s Prepaid Gas May Run Out by Sunday Morning

Ukraine’s supply of prepaid gas from Russia may run out by Sunday morning Moscow time at the current rate requested, exporter OAO Gazprom said.

The Russian state-run company will halt shipments to Ukraine unless it receives further advance payments, Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov says by phone on Thursday.

Gas shipments have been a flash-point in the troubled relations between the countries for years and the dispute reignited last week over supplies to rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine. Russia demanded Ukraine pays extra to meet the cost of supplies to the region, while the government in Kiev and state gas company NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy has refused.

WNU Editor: Ukraine has had a very mild winter this year .... but it is still cold and this is just one more problem on top of another for the country.

More News On Reports That Russia May Cut Off Natural Gas To Ukraine By This Weekend

Russia could cut off gas to Ukraine by ‘end of week’ -- Salon/AP
Ukraine's Russian gas supply faces cut-off, but rebels may be exempt -- CBC/Reuters
Russia's Gazprom says ready to compromise on gas for east Ukraine -- Reuters
Gazprom Ready to Sidestep Kiev, Supply Gas to Donbas -- Sputnik

Is There A Kremlin Plan To Annex Eastern Ukraine?

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich (L) gives a wink to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin during a signing ceremony after a meeting of the Russian-Ukrainian Interstate Commission at the Kremlin in Moscow, December 17, 2013. Sergei Karpukhin/Reuters

Anna Nemtsova, Daily Beast: Putin’s Secret Ukraine Plan ‘Leaked’

Publication of a leaked secret planning document raises questions about when and how Russia’s president might have planned the takeover of eastern Ukraine.

MOSCOW — Two weeks ago the editors of Novaya Gazeta, a newspaper famous in Russia for its investigative journalism, received an email from a Kremlin insider with a Word document attached. The email said that the document contained instructions on how to break Ukraine apart, and that the Kremlin had received that document from billionaire Konstantin Malofeyev in early February, well before Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych fled to Russia to escape the revolutionary fury of protesters in Kiev’s Maidan Square.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed all along that Russia’s sympathy and support for rebels in eastern Ukraine was the result of attacks by the Ukrainian factions that came to power after Yanukovych abandoned the ship of state exactly a year ago this week.

WNU Editor: I just finished reading the Novaya Gazeta article on this story .... and I am underwhelmed. Summarizing .... someone wrote a memo to Putin's office (the author has denied writing the memo) .... and this memo was in turn leaked to Novaya Gazeta. The memo outlines Russian strategy to absorb the Russian portion of Ukraine .... preferably through a referendum process .... but it also explored other methods and tactics that could be deployed. As I said .... I am underwhelmed. I am sure that somewhere in the bowels of the Kremlin there are political and war scenarios on what to do if Ukraine should become politically unstable .... and these scenrios have probably been around for years .... but the key question that needs to be asked is .... are one of these scenarios in play right now, or is the Kremlin doing everything on "the fly". In my opinion .... for what it is worth .... Putin is improvising as best as he, and he is implementing the Rahm Emanuel philosophy to the full .... "you never let a serious crisis go to waste". And if that is the plan .... he is doing it masterfully.

More News On The Leak Of A Kremlin Memo Outlining A Plan To Annex Eastern Ukraine

Kremlin saw plan to annex Crimea before Yanukovich fell: newspaper -- Reuters
Early Memo Urged Moscow to Annex Crimea, Report Says -- New York Times
Russia's roadmap for annexing eastern Ukraine 'leaked from Vladimir Putin's office' -- The Independent
Kremlin 'considered plan to split Ukraine before president’s overthrow' -- The Telegraph
Report: Kremlin Was Eying Ukraine Prior to Yanukovych Ouster -- VOA
Top Secret Briefing Advising Putin on Break-Up of Ukraine Leaked -- Newsweek

Did Russian President Putin Threaten Ukrainian President Poroshenko In Their Last Phone Conversation?

Vladimir Putin talking on the phone (archive) © ITAR-TASS/Alexey Druzhinin

Kremlin Confirms Putin-Poroshenko Phone Conversation, Denies Alleged Threats -- ITAR-TASS

The two presidents discussed bilateral relations and the situation in the south-east of Ukraine.

MOSCOW, November 26. /TASS/. The Kremlin has confirmed the instance of a telephone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko but dismissed as fiction the rumours of alleged threats by Russia.

“It is true that Putin and Poroshenko talked by telephone on Wednesday evening at Ukraine’s initiative,” Russian presidential press-secretary Dmitry Peskov told TASS.

“Bilateral relations and the situation in the south-east of Ukraine were discussed,” he added.

“Various reports by a number of mass media, in the first place, Ukrainian, regarding the content of the conversation are fiction and have nothing to do with the reality,” Peskov said.

Read more ....

More News On Wednesday's Phone Conversation Between Russian President Putin And Ukrainian President Poroshenko

Putin, Poroshenko speak on phone about southeast Ukraine: Kremlin -- Reuters
Putin and Poroshenko discuss bilateral ties, situation in southeast Ukraine over phone on Nov 26 -- Russia Beyond The Headlines
Putin menaced Poroshenko with a new attack -- Chapter 97
Kremlin confirms Putin-Poroshenko phone conversation, denies alleged threats: TASS -- iFocus
Kremlin: Putin did not threaten Poroshenko -- Pravda
Kremlin says what Putin and Poroshenko talked about -- Chapter 97

My Comment: What we now know is the following .... there was a Wednesday's phone conversation between Russian President Putin And Ukrainian President Poroshenko .... and someone in the Ukrainian government is leaking a story to the Ukrainian press that threats were issued .... threats that Russia is denying. Beyond that .... everything else is pure speculation. So .... if I may speculate .... Russian President Putin despises Ukrainian President Poroshenko .... and with the humanitarian crisis escalating to a disastrous situation in eastern Ukraine that is impacting millions of people on both sides of the border, my guess is that Putin issued some blunt warnings.

Even With A Natural Gas Deal, Russia-Ukraine Relations Are Still In A Deep Freeze

With Political Rift Still Deep, Russia-Ukraine Gas Deal Is Widely Seen as a Patch -- New York Times

OTTAWA — A deal struck on Thursday to restart Russian natural gas supplies to Ukraine will keep homes heated this winter, but it does not fully settle a fierce, long-running fight over energy prices that is likely to resume early next year if not sooner, analysts said Friday.

More crucially, though, the grudging acceptance of the deal did not signal an imminent end to the deeper political dispute over eastern Ukraine. That standoff has brought Russia and the West into their most dangerous conflict since the Cold War and spawned the bloodiest violence in Europe since the conflicts in the Balkans of the 1990s.

The agreement was reached after Europe brokered a payment of more than $3 billion in past-due bills to Gazprom, the Kremlin-controlled energy giant — and after each side bowed to financial realities.

Read more ....

Update: Could gas deal signal Russia - Ukraine detente? -- Fred Weir, CSM

My Comment: As long as the crisis/conflict continues in eastern Ukraine .... I do not see any substantive moves towards a Russia - Ukraine reconciliation.

Tho Will Pay-Off Ukraine's Multibillion-Dollar Gas Debt?

Reuters/Valentyn Ogirenko

Ukraine's Multibillion-Dollar Gas Debt: Who Pays? -- RT

Ukraine plans to buy $770 million worth of gas (2 billion cubic meters) from Russia this winter to keep the heat on, but before that, they must pay off $1.45 billion in debt. The question is: who is going to pay the bill?

All three parties, Russia, the EU, and Ukraine met in Brussels on Tuesday and confirmed Kiev will pay $385 per 1,000 cubic meters of Russian supplied gas through the end of March. Before Ukraine can start purchasing gas, they need to pay off $1.45 billion in debt.

“There’s one obstacle: Ukraine failed to pay for Russian-supplied gas for seven months,” Oettinger said Tuesday. It will be difficult for Ukraine to find a benefactor, since, as Oettinger pointed out, its credit history is less than stellar. The economy is in ruin and may already need extra IMF money to stay afloat.

Read more ....

My Comment: It is always about the money. Bottom line .... Ukraine is bankrupt and it does not have the means to pay-off this debt. They are hoping that the Europeans would give them the money to do so .... but the problem (from the European perspective) is that the last time they did that, the government in Kiev essentially took the money to pay off it's government employees and to pay for it's war against the eastern part of the country. I doubt that the EU is not going to make the same mistake again .... hence the impasse of today. My prediction .... the EU will pay-off this debt, and they will give the Ukraine government extra money via through loans and other subsidies.

Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko: Russia Has Agreed to Supply Gas

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko speaks to journalists as he leaves after a multilateral meeting on Ukraine's crisis on the sidelines of the 10th ASEM summit in Milan on October 17.

Poroshenko Says Ukraine Will Have Gas This Winter -- Radio Free Europe

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko says the country will have natural gas from Russia this winter.

Poroshenko said in an interview on Ukrainian television on October 18 that Russia and Ukraine must only agree on the price for that gas.

He said the two sides have agreed that Ukraine will pay $385 per 1,000 cubic meters for gas that was delivered through March 31.

Poroshenko -- who met with Russian President Vladimir Putin three times in Milan on October 17 -- said Kyiv had proposed to pay $325 per 1,000 cubic meters for gas used by Ukraine in May and June and to pay $385 for gas in the winter.

He said Russia was insisting on the $385 per 1,000 cubic meters for all parts of the year.

Read more ....

More News On A Russia - Ukraine Natural Gas Agreement

Ukraine says winter gas price deal agreed with Russia -- AFP
Russia Agrees to Supply Gas for Ukraine as Winter Approaches -- Epoch Times/AP
Ukraine says it agrees on interim gas price with Russia -- Reuters
Ukraine and Russia make breakthrough on gas -- Al Jazeera

Boycotting Russian Goods Ukrainian Style

Ukrainian singer Irena Karpa wearing a "Don't give it to a Russian" t-shirt. Photo: Facebook

Ukraine In Campaign To Boycott Russian Goods, Restaurants, Sex -- Sydney Morning Herald

War might be at their doorstep but Ukrainian citizens are using a more peaceful style of dissent against Russia.

Across the capital Kiev last weekend, young men and women converged on Russian-owned cafes and restaurants. With each sale, the activists feigned their own death. They held signs that said "Russia kills!" against their chest as they lay prone on the floor.

Each pancake sold they claimed ‘costs’ three lives; a coffee, one life; a cake or a salad two each. “Not too expensive, this Russian food?” the activists asked visitors.

Read more ....

My Comment: On an economic level this protest is having a minimal impact .... but from a PR point of view .... very effective. What is having an impact is a new app that Ukrainians can use in determining if a product is from Russia or not (see below).