Why Ukraine Is Divided

Amanda Taub, VOX: The real roots of the war in eastern Ukraine

We tend to talk about the conflict in eastern Ukraine as a tale of Russian aggression. That's not inaccurate — but it isn't the full story, either.

It's true Russia took advantage of Ukraine's weakness after massive protests forced former President Viktor Yanukovych out of office a year ago, first by invading and occupying Crimea, and then by backing a violent separatist movement in eastern Ukraine. Putin's aggression helped spark the war, and it has helped prolong it.

But as this video explains, Ukraine was already deeply divided long before the current conflict broke out in the country's east. Those divisions laid the groundwork for the war and have fueled it ever since. It's those divisions that lie at the root of the separatist conflict, and they mean that any solution to the war will need to be political as well as military.

WNU Editor: A few errors in the above video .... namely .... the Russian speaking populations in eastern Ukraine have been there for almost 1,000 years .... they were not resettled in the past hundred or few hundred years. Stalin's orchestrated Ukraine famine targeted everyone .... the Communists did not care if you were Ukrainian or Russian. Otherwise .... the above video gives a good summary on what divides in Ukraine .... namely that it involves more than just interference from Moscow, and that to achieve a lasting peace the leaders of Ukraine will need to address Ukraine's deep linguistic and cultural differences.

The Call To Arm Ukraine Intensifies

Members of the separatist self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic army collect parts of a destroyed Ukrainian army tank in Vuhlehirsk, about 10 km (6 miles) west of Debaltseve, February 16, 2015. REUTERS/Baz Ratner

Steven Pifer, Reuters: How to arm Ukraine without starting World War Three

The Feb. 12 Minsk II Ukrainian ceasefire agreement brokered by German Chancellor Angela Merkel is a fragile arrangement. Most analysts hold modest expectations. The past few days are proving them right.

Separatist and Russian forces have continued their attack on Ukrainian forces at Debaltseve, despite the ceasefire that supposedly took effect on Saturday. Separatist leaders assert the ceasefire does not apply there, while Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman claims that Moscow is not part of the conflict or the agreement.

President Barack Obama and other Western leaders continue to hope that the ceasefire will take hold. But if Minsk II unravels, as did the first Minsk ceasefire of last September, pressure will likely grow on the White House to provide greater military assistance — including defensive arms — to Ukraine.

WNU Editor: This analysis is flawed on so many levels that I do not even know where I can begin. First things first .... the Ukraine military has been trained to use Soviet/Russian era weapons .... to switch it to Western style arms and weapon systems will take time .... a lot of time .... with the best estimates saying two years. Talk about arming has already opened deep divisions within Europe and the U.S. .... supplying these weapons will only aggravate these relations. The U.S. may have the Atlantic Ocean between them and Europe, but Ukraine is within Europe, and it is the Europeans who will be dealing with the fallout .... something that they know too well. Russia has also not been helpful in this crisis .... and I know that they will see such a development as a start to a proxy war .... and they will respond in kind .... opening a Pandora's Box that we may all live to regret later on. There is also the crisis within Ukraine itself. For a population of 46 million people they are now living in an economy that has collapsed, a society that is deeply polarized, and a government that has shown itself unable and unwilling to implement necessary reforms and compromises. The last thing that this population needs right now is more weapons and more war .... but unfortunately many in Washington, Kiev, and in some European capitals .... this is exactly what they want.

Kiev Refuses To Publicly Acknowledge The Disaster That Is Unfolding In Debaltseve

Post by Max Avdeev.

Leonid Bershidsky, Bloomberg: Ukraine's President Is Trapped With His Troops

Two days after the belligerent parties in eastern Ukraine were supposed to suspend fighting, the truce is not holding. The agreement sealed last Thursday has hit the first of several predictable snags: Kiev refuses to recognize that a large number of its troops are encircled near the railroad junction of Debaltseve, and fighting rages on as these troops try to break out. Although both sides are guilty of violating the cease-fire, responsibility for preserving it is now in the hands of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.

WNU Editor: Could not have said it any better.

Can The Ukraine Military Win The War?

Members of the separatist self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic army collect parts of a destroyed Ukrainian army tank in the town of Vuhlehirsk, about 10 km (6 miles) to the west of Debaltseve, February 16, 2015. Credit: Reuters/Baz Ratner

Alan Chin, Reuters: Ukraine’s military is stronger than believed. Here’s what it needs to win.

“This is the hour of Europe.”

So said a prominent European leader about tense negotiations to end a war that threatened to tear peace and prosperity apart. But those words didn’t come from either German Chancellor Angela Merkel or French President Francois Hollande after they emerged from an all-nighter with presidents Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko of Russia and Ukraine, clutching a hard-won ceasefire in hand.

WNU Editor: When asked this question I always bring up Ireland and the British Army .... especially Northern Ireland. For much of the 19th and 20th century the British army had the reputation of being the best military in the world .... but for decades they had to keep approximately a quarter of their military in Ireland .... even though the IRA had only a few hundred hard-core soldiers and commanders (plus of course thousands of sympathizers). Battles, conflicts, sectarian strife .... this went on forever .... and there was no solution but one .... withdrawal .... and for Northern Ireland .... negotiation and compromise .... a process that is still ongoing. This is now the dilemma facing eastern Ukraine and for Ukraine as a whole .... but with one exception from Ireland .... there is a Russia next door who has made it very clear that they will not let down the pro-Russian rebels in this fight. I am sure that with time the Ukraine army .... with massive Western intervention and assistance .... can become a formidable force. But as long as the people in the Dombas region feel alienated from Kiev and have no desire to be a part of Ukraine .... and absent any real negotiation and compromise from Kiev .... this can become a conflict that will go on for eternity.

Why Is The War In Ukraine So Bloody And Destructive?

Anna Nemtsova, Daily Beast: Why Is Ukraine’s War So Bloody? The Soviet Union Trained Both Sides.

“First we work with massive artillery fire to clean up space and then infantry and tanks roll in.”

WNU Editor: No precision and targeted strikes in this conflict .... and as for rules of engagement .... just an after-thought.Throw in massive fire-power in the hands of numerous militias and groups .... it is a surprise that the death toll is not in the tens of thousands.

Is Ukraine Losing The War?

Members of the armed forces of the separatist self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic drive a tank on the outskirts of Donetsk, Jan. 22, 2015. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko

Michael Weiss & James Miller, Daily Beast: Putin Is Winning the Ukraine War on Three Fronts

Russian-backed rebels are making gains near Donetsk, Lugansk, and Mariupol. Just how long can Kiev hold off their advances?

Update: Ukraine’s ceasefire has become a farce, with Vladimir Putin the author -- Lucian Kim, Reuters

WNU Editor: Both of the above articles focus on Russia's involvement in Ukraine's civil war, but they miss a few points .... the main one being that while Russia is providing materials and men to the war, and the EU/NATO is providing resources to Kiev .... this is primarily a fight between Ukrainian nationalists in the west, and pro-Russian rebels in the east. As this blog warned in March last year .... when Ukraine's new interim government passed harsh anti-Russian language/educational laws and started to purge the government/military/state run corporations and media outlets of Russian-Ukrainians .... they were laying the groundwork for a catastrophe. What I believe was the final nail in the coffin was Kiev's refusal to negotiate and compromise .... because after that is when we started to see everything disintegrate. Government buildings being stormed by protestors in predominantly Russian speaking regions of the country .... a growing secession movement in Crimea that wanted no part of this new Ukraine and who also felt embolden in their demands because of the heavy Russian military presence in the area .... the killing of dozens of unarmed Russian protestors in Odessa sparking fear in other parts of Ukraine with predominately Russian populations .... and the heavy use of Ukrainian military units to suppress opposition demonstrations in eastern Ukraine .... this was more than enough to blow apart all the past understandings on how Ukraine should be governed and managed. And the sad part of this disaster is that it could have all been avoided if the interim Ukrainian government was willing to compromise just a little bit or stay away from their anti-Russian rhetoric, or when Poroshenko .... elected as President .... would as his first act be willing to accept the original demands of the pro-Russian rebels in the east of establishing a federated state.

Coulda, woulda, shoulda .... this is what the Ukraine disaster will be remembered for ....not on what Putin did, or what the EU/U.S./NATO wanted .... but on how the Ukrainians themselves could not sit down at a table and be willing to discuss and compromise what needs to be done .... and to then ask the people themselves via through elections and referendums if this is the choice that they want.

Sighhh ....

Ukraine has already lost. Russia/Putin have also lost. And after all the fighting and suffering has been done the only thing that will be left will be on where to draw the new boundaries. And everyone will be asking the same question .... was it all worth it ....and the answer would be no.

The War In Eastern Ukraine Is Going To Get Worse

OSCE observers saw no military equipment crossing at two border checkpoints along the Ukraine-Russia border, but there's a need to get aid to locals in eastern Ukraine, border-crossers said. Pro-Russian separatists stand next to a military truck in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, January 21, 2015. Reuters/Alexander Ermochenko

Carol Matlack, Bloomberg Businessweek: Why the Situation in Eastern Ukraine Is Getting Worse

Update: No end in sight as violence surges in Ukraine -- Deutsche Welle

WNU Editor: As I had mentioned in previous posts .... contrary to Ukraine media reports for the past week that a major offensive was launched to rout the pro-Russian rebels at the airport ... the reality on the ground was much different. This is why this defeat is a surprise for many in Ukraine and for their supporters outside .... they were told otherwise until reports starting to be posted that Russian military forces were involved in the conflict .... even though the OSCE saw 'No military equipment' crossed at observed Russia-Ukraine border checkpoints - OSCE (RT).... and two days later (i.e. today) we now hear that the Ukraine military has withdrawn from the area.

This is a humiliating military and political defeat, and there will be consequences starting with the government in Kiev adopting a far more brutal military and economic strategy. We are already seeing it in indiscriminate Ukraine air-force bombings of towns .... and I expect such bombings to not only intensify with the deliberately targeting of critical infrastructure targets like electrical/gas/and water plants, but it also will be coupled with even more economic sanctions.

On the bigger picture .... US military advisers  and trainers are now arriving in Ukraine, and the EU has made it very clear that sanctions are not going to be lifted on Russia. Russia has also made ominous warnings that they are not happy with what is happening .... and may escalate their response to the crisis. In short .... from my vantage point it appears that all sides are now positioning themselves for the next level in this conflict .... which is more fighting/refugees/military deployments/and sanctions.

These Are The People Who Are Running Ukraine Today

An aerial view shows Kyiv's Independence (Maidan) Square following some of the worst clashes between anti-government protesters and riot police. (Olga Yakimovich / Reuters)

Mikhail Klikushin: New York Observer: The New Ukraine Is Run by Rogues, Sexpots, Warlords, Lunatics and Oligarchs

Prominent Ukrainian MP denounces Obama's weakness, calls him a 'shot-down pilot'

WNU Editor: Regular readers of the blog know that I am very pessimistic on Ukraine's future .... that beyond the positive government rhetoric and promises there are deep problems and contradictions within the political class itself .... this article explains why.

An Analysis On The 'How And' Why Former Ukrainian President Yanukovych Fled The Country During The Height Of This Year's Protests

Riot police set up water cannons to shoot at protesters in Kiev last February. But shortly after, a mass defection of the president’s allies quickly led to his downfall. Credit Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times

Andrew Higgins and Andrew E. Kramer, New York Times: Ukraine Leader Was Defeated Even Before He Was Ousted

WNU Editor: This is a must read investigation by The New York Times into the final hours of Mr. Yanukovych’s rule ....

.... based on interviews with prominent players, including former commanders of the Berkut riot police and other security units, telephone records and other documents — shows that the president was not so much overthrown as cast adrift by his own allies, and that Western officials were just as surprised by the meltdown as anyone else.

I would not only say Western officials .... but also Russian officials. Everyone expected the security forces to protect him, but in hindsight it is now easy to see that when former Ukrainian President Yanukovych agreed with the protestors to launch an investigation into how the police/security officials conducted themselves in handling the Kiev protests .... even though they were following orders and that a number of them had already been killed .... these same security forces decided that enough was enough and they withdrew their support. Coupled this with top security officials literally deserting their posts .... justifiably fearing prosecution .... the dye was cast .... everyone who mattered deserted the Ukrainian President. Faced with little if any security .... and facing death threats from protest leaders .... no one should then be surprised that Ukrainian President Yanukovych decided that it would be prudent for him to flee the country ... .which he did.

I suspect that there is still more to the story than what is being told .... and I expect such news and info will only be known when the situation in the east has settled, and that all participants contribute to an unbiased investigative body who will be given the power to look at the events that led to a president fleeing the country. I would also call for an investigation on who made the decisions .... and why were this decisions made .... on who was to run the interim government when Yanukovych's government collapsed. This is important because it was this interim government that set into motion the crisis and the conflict that continues to exist in Ukraine today.

Ukraine's Government Has Lost Support For Its Cause In The Rebel Regions Of The East

Ukrainian servicemen, who are members of an artillery section, gather near a cannon being fired during a military operation against pro-Russian separatists near Pervomaisk, Luhansk region, Aug. 2, 2014.

In Ukraine's East, Support For The Central Government In Kiev Is Dying -- L.A. Times

A year ago, Luda Nesterenko didn't give much thought to her nationality. With a Ukrainian mother and a Russian father, Nesterenko, like so many in this region of the former Soviet Union, is a mix of two Slavic cultures so close that she hardly felt the need to differentiate between them.

But that was before protesters gathered in the streets of the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, last November to demonstrate against a Kremlin-friendly president she didn't particularly like but was willing to live with for stability's sake. It was before those mass demonstrations ended in the ousting of that president, and Russia annexed Crimea. And it was before the war between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russia separatist fighters came to her city.

On a recent day, Nesterenko, 47, wiped away tears as she stood next to the crater left by the artillery shell that ripped through the roof of her house on the corner of Komsomolsk and Transport streets. In a split second in mid-August, the shelling reduced her life savings down to its foundation.

Read more ....

My Comment: I still believe that reconciliation between Ukraine and the Russian dominated regions in the east is possible .... but the longer this war continues .... and the longer Kiev remains adamant in not negotiating with the rebels in the east .... my hopes for such a reconciliation will be gone .... and probably forever.

A Look At How The Political Elites In Ukraine, Russia, And In The EU Ignored The Warning Signs That Brought Us The Crisis To Where We Are Today

When Russia realized that Yanukovych was considering signing the association agreement with Brussels, President Vladimir Putin made sure to make it clear what Moscow's reaction would be. Putin's gambit ultimately worked and Yanukovych backed away from the deal. DPA/ RIA Novosti

Summit of Failure: How The EU Lost Russia Over Ukraine -- Spiegel Online

One year ago, negotations over a Ukraine association agreement with the European Union collapsed. The result has been a standoff with Russia and war in the Donbass. It was an historical failure, and one that German Chancellor Angela Merkel contributed to.

Only six meters separated German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych as they sat across from each other in the festively adorned knight's hall of the former Palace of the Grand Dukes of Lithuania. In truth, though, they were worlds apart.

Yanukovych had just spoken. In meandering sentences, he tried to explain why the European Union's Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius was more useful than it might have appeared at that moment, why it made sense to continue negotiating and how he would remain engaged in efforts towards a common future, just as he had previously been. "We need several billion euros in aid very quickly," Yanukovych said.

Read more ....

My Comment: This is an excellent summary of events prior to the revolution that brought Ukraine and EU - Russian relations to where we are today. For those who are following the Ukrainian civil war, this is a must read.

The paragraph in this post that caught my eye on why we have the crisis that we have today is the following ....

.... Russia and Europe talked past each other and misunderstood one another. It was a clash of two different foreign policy cultures: A Western approach that focused on treaties and the precise wording of the paragraphs therein; and the Eastern approach in which status and symbols are more important.

Indeed.

The Slow Collapse Of Ukraine

Members of the "Donbass" self-defence battalion attend a ceremony to swear the oath to be officially included into the reserve battalion of the National Guard of Ukraine near Kiev June 23, 2014. (Reuters/Valentyn Ogirenko)

Ukraine’s Slow Collapse -- New York Times editorial

The crisis in Ukraine has reached an impasse. The cease-fire signed in Minsk, Belarus, in September never really took hold, but at least it provided a cover for efforts to reduce the level of fighting and focus on stabilizing and reforming the Ukrainian economy as a prelude to a serious, long-term search for a resolution of the crisis. Now even the fig leaf of cease-fire is gone. Russian armored vehicles are rolling into eastern Ukraine — disowned, of course, by Moscow.

Gunfire is exchanged constantly in and around Donetsk, and Kiev has basically disowned residents of territories claimed by separatists by cutting most government services, benefits and pensions. And though elections to the Ukrainian Parliament on Oct. 26 brought in a new, pro-Western legislature, Kiev is still far from forming a government or producing a viable program of reforms.

Read more ....

My Comment: Even the New York Times now realizes that Ukraine must change its ways ....unfortunately .... the culture of corruption and the role that the central government plays in prolonging this state of affairs is so deep rooted within the fabric of that nation that I just do not see the reforms that the EU and IMF are demanding to ever get off the ground in Kiev .... certainly not in my lifetime.

Eastern Ukraine Continues To Deteriorate

Unmarked military trucks drive along a road in a territory controlled by the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic near the town of Khartsyzk, east of Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, November 15, 2014. International monitors deployed along the Russian border in eastern Ukraine say their drones were shot at and jammed days before new columns of unmarked soldiers and weapons, said by the West to be Russian, were seen in the rebel-held territory. Maxim Zmeyev/Reuters

All Is Not Well On Ukraine’s Eastern Front -- Benny Avni, Newsweek

What is Vladimir Putin’s game in eastern Ukraine? NATO reports that long convoys of unmarked military vehicles transporting heavy artillery and tanks, along with armored personnel carriers and trucks bearing rocket launchers manned by troops dressed in camouflage without identifying livery, have reinforced the pro-Russian separatist positions around the key Ukrainian cities of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Kiev forces confirmed the sightings and, like NATO, accused the Russians of mounting the sort of stealth invasion that proved so successful when Moscow annexed Crimea last winter. The Russians, meanwhile, indignantly deny that any of their forces have crossed the border, just as Russian President Vladimir Putin denied his forces had been sent to occupy Ukraine.

Read more ....

My Comment: Benny Avni in his commentary focuses on what Putin is doing .... but I blame both sides for the catastrophe that is now unfolding. This conflict could have all been avoided ....in both Russia and in Ukraine there is no desire among the population for a war .... but war is what is now happening, with the leaders on all sides showing no interest to compromise and/or seek a peaceful resolution. My prediction on what is going to happen next still holds .... the humanitarian crisis will escalate, and Russia will use that as it's excuse to openly intervene in the conflict instead of using unmarked vehicles and unidentified soldiers to support the rebels in the region.

What Is Next For Ukraine?

Ukraine’s Slow Descent Into Madness -- Lucian Kim, Slate

While it fights rebels in the east, Kiev is beginning to crumble from the inside.

KIEV, Ukraine—Less than a year ago, Viktor Yanukovych was not yet the disgraced former president of Ukraine and ruled over his impoverished but peaceful nation from Mezhyhirya, his sprawling residence outside Kiev. Here Yanukovych entertained his cronies aboard a fake Spanish galleon, watched TV from the comfort of his wood-paneled Jacuzzi, and prayed for redemption in a jewel-encrusted private chapel.

The main house—an outsized, five-story peasant cottage—is nicknamed Honka, after the Finnish company that built it. Today a wild-eyed revolutionary named Petro Oliynyk offers visitors an express tour from bowling alley to bedroom at $15 a head. Wrapped in the black-and-red flag of the World War II–era Ukrainian Insurgent Army, Oliynyk coasts across Honka’s inlaid wooden floors in traditional straw shoes. Mezhyhirya has become to Kiev what Versailles is to Paris—except Ukraine’s revolution is far from over.

Read more ....

My Comment: I am not as gloomy as the author of the above post is on Ukraine's future. But it is true that tough times are ahead for Ukraine, and the pace for needed reform is going to be much slower than what many were hoping and expecting after the revolution. As for the civil war in the east .... absent a political agreement that conflict is going to brew on well into next year.

What's Next For Ukraine

Ukraine And Russia: Battering On -- The Economist

The fighting in eastern Ukraine intensifies as pro-Russian rebels lose ground, raising fresh questions over the plans of Russia’s Vladimir Putin

IN A dusty Russian field close to the border with Ukraine, a fleet of nearly 300 trucks sit under the hot summer sun. Their arrival on August 14th was a sideshow to the war inside Ukraine, a piece of political sleight-of-hand that was neither a true humanitarian mission (as Moscow presented it) nor a prelude to invasion by Russian “peacekeepers” (as Kiev feared). The trucks and their contents are not decisive in themselves, but they could be part of the endgame to a conflict that has stretched over three months and cost some 2,500 lives.

The war is reaching a crunch point. Pushing forward with artillery and bombing raids, Ukrainian forces are recapturing territory and closing in on rebel forces in the east. The mood in Kiev, as Olexsiy Melnyk of the Razumkov Centre sums it up, is to “go to the end”—to finish the war by force. In a purely military contest, without an influx of heavy weapons or ground troops from Russia, the anti-Kiev insurgency would lose. The human cost could be high, but it would give President Petro Poroshenko a battlefield victory without making concessions to Moscow.

Read more ....

My Comment: The paragraph that caught my attention in this post from The Economist is the following ....

.... The language of war casts those who support the rebels as terrorists or Russian mercenaries. Post-war reconciliation in Donetsk and Luhansk will thus be exceptionally difficult. In a hospital bed on the Russian side of the border, an injured 52-year-old rebel named Yuri, from the Luhansk region, says that even if Kiev considers him a terrorist, there are “millions of people like me.”

For there to be peace in eastern Ukraine .... reconciliation and compromise must be the rule rather than the exception. Kiev must find a way to accommodate the millions of Russian - Ukrainians who believe that their interests are not respected in Kiev and/or ignored. And on the other side .... pro-Russian separatists must accept the fact that their vision of an independent state and/or being incorporated into the Russia Federation is not going to happen .... certainly not in the foreseeable future. Absent these conditions .... conflict will be the rule ....and this conflict has the potential to last for generations.