Is Living In Moscow Really That Bad?

Russian soldiers marching on Red Square in Moscow. Reuters

Julia Smirnova, Ozy: In Moscow, Absurdity Is Routine

Julia Smirnova is a correspondent for Germany’s Die Welt newspaper.

In the greenish light, the doors open and dark human lava pours into the metro. The faces are earnest and sleep-deprived — of people who have been getting up for years on dark mornings to commute to Moscow to earn a piece of prosperity for their families, and for whom it wasn’t the first time in their lives that they had become poorer overnight.

A cheerful voice floats over the gloomy crowd from loudspeakers, as if there were a big party to celebrate. It announces that on this day 226 years ago, Russian troops had taken the fortress of Ochakov in the Russo-Turkish War. Ochakov is located in present-day southeastern Ukraine, in one of the regions that Russian president Vladimir Putin likes to call Novorossiya, or “New Russia.” Does anyone notice?

It is a country that is not never in the news, and its leader continues to evoke anxiety if not fear across the globe. But for the 11.5 million people in its capital city of Moscow, life in Russia is forging on in a curious way, bordering on theater of the absurd. Absurdity is part of daily life. And the higher its concentration, the less people seem to notice it, since they’re not only the audience but also have to get on with their lives in the middle of this play.

WNU Editor: After reading this commentary I would never want to go to Moscow .... oh yeah .... I forgot .... I do live here once in a while. This is a narrow-minded commentary (I am being very polite here) but one that unfortunately is shared by a lot of people in the West. Does Moscow have its drawbacks, yes .... is life in Moscow difficult, yes .... are politicians destructive and corrupt, yes .... is life better somewhere else, probably .... but I can say the same thing about any other city in the world.

Russians Continue To Leave Russia

(Click on Image to Enlarge)

Wikipedia

Strategy Page: Winning: Russia Gains Crimea But Loses Over A Million Russians

Since Russia began invading and trying to annex parts of Ukraine in 2014 there has been a substantial shift in population. Since early 2014 nearly two million people have left Russia. More than half these were Westerners (including many from East European countries) working in Russia, providing skills that Russia did not have. The rest were Russians, most of them highly educated and with similar skills to the departing Westerners. What all these migrants had in common was a desire to get away from an increasingly authoritarian, intolerant and economically disastrous Russian government. About half the departing Westerners and skilled Russians were replaced by more (less educated and skilled) migrants from the east (Central Asia, North Korea, China and the Caucasus).

WNU Editor: My cousins daughter in Moscow asked me only yesterday if I can get for her the necessary papers so that she can apply to McGill University in 2016 when she is 19 (I live in Montreal where the university is located). This decline is happening for may reasons .... but the main one is economic .... people in Russia do not want to have children because of the high costs involved .... and are moving and/or looking elsewhere to better their lives.

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials On The Murder Of Russian Politician Boris Nemtsov

CBC: Analysis: It is not who killed Russia's Boris Nemtsov, it is why

Why was Boris Nemtsov shot dead? The committee investigating the chilling murder of the vocal Kremlin critic within view of its red brick walls has already established a number of possible motives.

Among them is his outspoken opposition to the fighting in Ukraine.

For Nemtsov, a long-time opposition leader briefly considered as a possible successor to Boris Yeltsin until Vladimir Putin edged him out, the war next door had become a central, electrifying issue among a litany of complaints against Putin's leadership.

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials On The Murder Of Russian Politician Boris Nemtsov

The complicated life -- and tragic death -- of Boris Nemtsov -- Daniel Treisman, CNN
Nemtsov's Murder Defines Putin's Russia -- Bloomberg editorial
The Brilliant Boris Nemtsov: A Reformer Who Never Backed Down -- NYT
How war in Ukraine led to Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov’s death -- Lucian Kim, Reuters
Was Boris Nemtsov killed because in Russia opposition figures are deemed traitors? -- Shaun Walker, The Guardian
Counting the Cost of Boris Nemtsov's Death -- Georgy Bovt, Moscow Times
Putin’s Culture of Fear and Death -- Garry Kasparov, WSJ
Russia’s Army of Avengers: Masha Gessen on the Murder of Boris Nemtsov -- NYT
Killing of opposition leader in Russia will further weaken liberal opposition despite probable economically motivated protests -- IHS Jane's 360
Boris Nemtsov murder: What next for Russia's opposition? -- Konstantin von Eggert (Kommersant radio commentator), BBC
Slain Kremlin critic Nemtsov thought fame offered protection -- Susannah Cullinane, CNN
Blood near the Kremlin: Russia's media fight back -- Elizabeth Piper, Reuters
After Nemstov’s Murder, the Russian Opposition Seeks a Way Forward -- Anna Nemtsova, Newsweek
Nemtsov's Murder Shakes Russian Opposition -- Eli Lake, Bloomberg
Nemtsov joins long list of those assassinated in post-Soviet Russia -- Fred Weir, CSM
The mysterious fates of Putin critics -- AFP
9 Putin critics who mysteriously died since 2004 -- Stefano Pozzebon, Business Insider

An Analysis On Russian Hybrid Military Strategy

Members of the armed forces of the separatist self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic drive a tank (Reuters)

Fiona Hill, Reuters: Hybrid war: The real reason fighting stopped in Ukraine – for now

President Vladimir Putin understands how insurgencies work better than any other Russian leader. We are watching this play out right now in Ukraine.

Before Putin took power, Moscow had long struggled to suppress rebel movements. In the 1980s, for example, the Soviet Union grappled with the Muslim mujahedeen in Afghanistan. Moscow propped up the beleaguered Kabul government with an invasion and occupation — to little avail. After 10 years of grueling conflict, Moscow withdrew, just as the Soviet Union fell apart. A few years later, rebels inflicted another serious blow against the Russian military, in the Russian province of Chechnya. Chechen militants launched attacks deep into Russia. The Kremlin again withdrew its forces and essentially sued for peace.

Until Putin took the helm.

WNU Editor: An interesting read on Russian military/hybrid strategy. I am speculating right now .... but I feel that it is a take on the hybrid strategy that the U.S. applied to the Taliban in Afghanistan right after 9/11. A few hundred CIA specialists and special forces, backed by money, weapons, and air support, were able to put together a coalition to topple the Taliban within two months. In eastern Ukraine .... same story. An alienated population deeply resentful of Kiev, backed by Russian volunteers, money, and weapons .... are able to defeat a far bigger army backed by the West within a few months.

A Muscovite's View Of The Coming Year

Ivan Sukhov, Moscow Times: Russians Are Sleepwalking Into Chaos

WNU Editor: I could have written this article from my own personal perspective. On a personal note .... the above is a picture of a very young me (September 26, 1993).

Russia Prepares For Hard Times

Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, heads the Security Council in Moscow's Kremlin on Dec. 26, 2014. Alexei Druzhinin, Presidential Press Service/RIA Novosti

Vasily Kashin, analyst, Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, Moscow/Defense News: Russia Prepares for Lengthy Confrontation With West, Economic Restructuring

WNU Editor: Everyone that I know in Russia is expecting hard and tough times as a result of Ukraine, western sanctions, and the fall in commodity prices like oil. As an outside looking in I find the entire situation very strange .... living in Canada I live the good life, but everything back in my old country is now the opposite .... among my family/friends/associates/and contacts .... there is no optimism for the short term .... everyone is preparing for the worse. Interestingly .... I have detected no change in support for Putin .... many still support him and do not blame him for the current crisis. I disagree .... but in Russia I am in the minority on this one.

Update: Analysis: Putin, Russia confront a new, unstable reality -- Michael Birnbaum, Stars and Stripes/The Washington Post

Is Crumbling Oil Prices Making Russian President Putin Weaker And More Dangerous?

Crumbling Oil Makes Putin More Dangerous: Expert -- Matthew J. Belvedere, CNBC

Russian President Vladimir Putin is being pushed "further into a corner" by falling oil prices, leaving him little option but to continue his aggression toward Ukraine and confrontation with the West, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer told CNBC on Tuesday.

Putin has "gone all-in on an anti-U.S., must-keep-Ukraine nationalist engagement," Bremmer said on "Squawk Box." He said it's "completely inconceivable" for Putin to back down.

"This is what is behind all his approval ratings. It's behind who he now is as a leader," Bremmer said, adding that capitulation would "erode a lot of his power."

Read more ....

My Comment: Oil does play a vital role in Russia's economy .... and for filling the coffers of the government .... but it is not the "make or break case" that the above CNBC report likes to suggest. Will Putin's popularity take a hit if Russia experiences a recession next year .... yes .... but will it make him "more dangerous" .... no. Putin's base of support comes from voters who have experienced hard times before (the collapse of the Russian economy in the early 1990s comes to my mind) .... and will give him the benefit of the doubt for a certain period of time. But if the recession stays on for a few more years .... his problem will be within Russia itself, and among his own political party and colleagues who will start to worry that they may lose in the next Russian Presidential election slated for 2018. The ones who will be "dangerous" are those who are around him, and who will not like to lose their privilege and power.

30 'Crazy Things' About Russia

(Reuters)

30 Crazy Things You Didn't Know About Russia -- Elena Holodny, Business Insider

Back in 1939, Winston Churchill famously remarked that Russia was "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma."

For most people, his words ring true to this day.

Although Russia is the largest country in the world and has the eighth-largest GDP, little is widely known about the nation and its culture.

Because Russia has increasingly made international headlines, it's a good idea to know a few things about the country.

To help you out, we've compiled a list of some of the craziest facts about the Russian language, culture, politics, and statistics.

Read more ....

My Comment: This is scary .... not one of these facts is surprising to me. New Years Day in Red Square .... now that is a party .... correction .... a great party. I always pick mushrooms in fall .... and I know which ones are the poison ones. Sour cream on pancakes .... hmmm .... hmmmm .... with Canadian maple syrup it is divine. In regards to beer .... I will never forget a remark my father once made .... according to him beer is not alcohol, it is food.

What Is Russian President Putin's Next Move?

Russia's President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the government at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow.

Putin's Next Move Could Make Eastern Europe Explode -- Brett LoGiurato, Business Insider

What is going on in Vladimir Putin's mind?

That's the question a panel of Russia experts was trying to answer Tuesday morning. Attention on Russia and the crisis in Ukraine has dwindled as the press has focused more on the West's fight against the extremist group calling itself the Islamic State.

US Secretary of State John Kerry also announced Tuesday increased intelligence-gathering cooperation with Russia on the group — also known as ISIS — a particularly significant development given the recent thaw in US-Russia relations.

Read more ....

My Comment: Putin has always been an opportunist .... if he sees an opportunity he will always take it. When Ukraine exploded in revolution earlier this year .... Putin was more focused on the Sochi Olympics rather than Crimea and eastern Ukraine. But a few days after the close of the Olympic games .... he shifted his focus on Ukraine and .... well the rest is history. The same can be said about his future moves. If Russians revolt in the Baltics, and the regional governments crack down hard .... Putin will respond. But if the Baltic governments reach out to their Russian populations with promises of accommodation and reconciliation .... Putin will be effective neutered and we in the West will not have to be worried about his "next move".

Will Russia Be Able To Absorb Sanctions From The West

Russian President Vladimir Putin called on Kiev authorities to think about the approaching heating period. © RIA Novosti. Mikhail Klementiev

Vladimir Putin Has Absorbed The West's 'Consequences' And Stepped Up His Aggression -- Peter Foster, The Telegraph

American Way: Putin has shown that he is willing to take all the economic pain America and Europe are prepared to inflict. So what's to stop him from going even further?

When Barack Obama arrives in the Estonian capital of Tallinn early this week to meet the presidents of the three Baltic States, he will come bearing the gift of assurances.

Framed against a glorious medieval backdrop, Mr Obama will promise that while their nations may indeed be small, and newcomers to Nato, the United States and the major European military powers "mean what we say" when it comes to honouring Nato's mutual defence pact.

As any parent will tell you, when an authority figure warns that "I mean what I say" it's almost always a sign that the object of such threats - in this case Russian president Vladimir Putin - has good reason to doubt the truth of that statement, or at least to test whether or not it is true.

Read more ....

My Comment: The Russians are now "circling the wagons" .... and from Putin's perspective .... he is in the middle of this circle. While almost all Russians are against going to war against Ukraine .... if it comes to a war this anti-war sentiment will disappear in a minute. As to the impact of sanctions .... the culture and mindset is different in Russia. War means everyone must sacrifice .... this is accepted as a fact .... and as a result everyone will pitch in even if sanctions means tough times. Case in point .... I have relatives who live in the city of Kharkiv which is near the Russian border and the Dohensk and Luhansk regions where much of this fighting is occurring. Everyone in the family is making sure (in both Russia and Ukraine)  that they will be taken care of during the cold winter months .... in my case .... my contribution is money. It is not like the U.S., where I have discovered that war has become a burden to only those who serve and to their families who must always worry about their loved ones. For most Americans .... they may have strong opinions about the wars that America is involved in .... but on a personal level .... totally untouched with the exception of paying a bit more in taxes and having a greater national debt in the future. In Europe .... this mindset is even more so .... no one wants to suffer economically.

Truth Is Always A Casualty Of War

Pro-Russian separatists walk at a destroyed war memorial on Savur-Mohyla, a hill east of the city of Donetsk, August 28, 2014. Credit: REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

On Russian Troops In Ukraine, Honesty Is Not Everyone's Best Policy -- Christian Lowe, Reuters

(Reuters) - The Ukraine conflict has evoked many memories of the Cold War, including a footloose attitude to the truth. But even as Russia’s denials of involvement stretch credibility to breaking point, for some they remain a convenient fiction.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is chief among them; denying a Russian role will keep his domestic audience in ignorance of a war they don't want - especially useful if the battle goes badly.

But there are also some European powers, including Germany and France, who despite being on the opposite side of the crisis share Putin's desire not to paint it as an out-and-out war between Russia and Ukraine.

For them, stating unequivocally that Russia has attacked Ukraine would force them to impose more costly sanctions, and could block the path to a truce with Russia they hope will resolve the crisis.

Read more ....

My Comment: I always take solace with the knowledge that in the end .... the truth will come out ..... and for those who care .... they will know. 

A Look At The Russian Military Tactic Of ‘Maskirovka’

Image from the Revolution Spirit

‘Maskirovka’ Is Russian Secret War -- Paul Huard, War Is Boring

Sneaky tactics are an old Russian tradition

Armed men with their faces covered by balaclavas who say they are pro-Russian Ukrainian separatists but who possess weapons and equipment used to equip Russian special forces.

A convoy of more than 200 vehicles that the Russian government said carried humanitarian relief for people in war-ravaged eastern Ukraine, yet many of the vehicles inspected by customs officials at the Russian-Ukrainian border were nearly empty.

Earlier in August, the Russians reportedly moved military vehicles with “peacekeeping” insignia to the border—a first since the crisis in the Ukraine erupted. At the same time, Russia continued a massive build up of arms and manpower along the border that the NATO secretary general recently termed “alarming.”

Whatever game Vladimir Putin and the Russian government are playing regarding their support of pro-Russian separatists in the Ukraine, it seems to have little to do with shock and awe. Instead, the Russian military’s strategy could be more subtle and rooted in strategic deception.

Read more ....

My Comment: I personally prefer the term 'disinformation'. But the concept of ‘Maskirovka’ is a holdover from the Soviet days .... and while Russia does employ it, it should also be noted that the Ukraine government/military has also been employing these tactics in their war against Russian separatists.

The Price Of Oil Is Putin's And Russia's Achilles Heel

Carnegie Europe

Beyond Oil And Reserves, Russia Running On Empty -- Reuters

(Reuters) - For all the sanctions Western leaders can throw at Russia, the biggest threat to President Vladimir Putin's ability to back separatists in east Ukraine is something beyond his or their control: the price of oil.

With Russia's $2 trillion economy heavily dependent on crude exports, oil prices are always closely monitored by the Kremlin, but the government is particularly wary now as tensions with the West mount and sanctions ratchet up.

Such conflicts often push up crude prices, but as long as oil, which accounts for 40 percent of state revenues, remains above the average $104 per barrel written into the 2014 budget, Moscow has little immediate need to worry.

The alarm bells will start ringing if it falls significantly below $100, forcing the government to pay more attention to propping up an economy already close to recession.

Read more ....

My Comment: Oil exports is what funds Moscow's social welfare programs for it's poor and elderly. These groups are also Putin's electoral power base. And while I do expect oil prices to remain at the $100/barrel range for the foreseeable future .... sanctions will have a detrimental impact on Russia's ability to get credit and expertise in developing it's Siberian oil and gas fields. In short .... no oil means less money, and less money will mean cutbacks to those who have always supported Putin at election time.