UK Think Tank: Russia Using Own Military Resources To Sustain Ukraine Conflict

The Guardian: Russian military shelled Ukraine from mid-July, report says

Moscow’s involvement in conflict has been on such a scale that strain on its military is starting to show, according to report by Royal United Services Institute

Large-scale intervention in eastern Ukraine by regular Russian troops began last August, reaching a peak of 10,000 in December, and Moscow has been struggling to maintain operations on such a scale and intensity, according to a report.

The report, by the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), claims small teams of reconnaissance and Spetsnaz special operations units crossed the border earlier, in mid-July after Ukrainian government forces had won a series of battles and had pushed pro-Moscow separatists out of territory they had previously occupied.

Update #1: Russia Using Own Military Resources To Sustain Ukraine Conflict, Says UK Think Tank -- IBTimes
Update #2: UK report highlights Russian army role in east Ukraine conflict -- Ukraine Today

WNU Editor: The Royal United Services Institute's report can be seen here.

How Many Russians Are Fighting In Ukraine And How Many Have Been Killed?

Pro-Russian separatists from the Chechen "Death" battalion stand in a line during a training exercise in the territory controlled by the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, eastern Ukraine, December 8, 2014. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

Mark Urban, BBC: How many Russians are fighting in Ukraine?

Western arguments about how to counter President Vladimir Putin's support for east Ukraine separatists are leading to clashes over the question of how deeply involved Russia's military is in the conflict.

The latest salvo between Nato allies came in a German government briefing to Spiegel magazine that accuses the alliance's supreme commander (American Gen Philip Breedlove) of disseminating "dangerous propaganda" on the extent of Russian military involvement, trying to undermine a diplomatic solution to the war.

Update #1: Nuland Claims 400-500 Russian Soldiers Killed in Eastern Ukraine -- Sputnik
Update #2: US army chief Ben Hodges says 12,000 Russian soldiers are currently in Ukraine -- Ukraine Today

WNU Editor: Are U.S. officials like Viktoria Nuland and U.S. General Breedlove correct in their analysis .... I personally do not know. But I do know that Europeans are starting to question the aggressive stance that US General Breedlove is pushing on Ukraine .... Breedlove's Bellicosity: Berlin Alarmed by Aggressive NATO Stance on Ukraine (Spiegel Online). As for Victoria Nuland .... she has some baggage with her European opposites .... Germans not amused by Victoria Nuland gaffe (Washington Post).

Russian President Putin: At Least Cities Not Being Destroyed

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) speaks during a news conference with Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi following their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, March 5, 2015 (Reuters / Sergey Karpukhin)

RT: Putin: E.Ukraine situation difficult, at least cities not being destroyed

The situation in eastern Ukraine remains difficult, but at least cities are not being destroyed and civilians are not being killed, Russia's President Vladimir Putin said after meeting Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.

Putin called on both sides of the Ukrainian conflict to“strictly comply” with the Minsk peace deal they signed on February 12.

WNU Editor: Ukraine`s cities may not be on fire, but the current economic collapse, high unemployment, destruction of savings, and ruinous inflation ....all of this has resulted in millions of victims.

Russia's Ghost Army in Ukraine (3 Videos)

From VICE News: The bitter conflict in Ukraine has cost thousands of lives, but the Russian government has continuously denied sending its soldiers to the frontlines, despite accusations to the contrary from NATO and Western officials.

VICE News travels to Russia to investigate the mysterious deaths of dozens — possibly hundreds — of active-duty Russian servicemen who are believed to have been killed in Ukraine. Accounts gathered from soldiers' families, human rights workers, and government officials cast doubt on the Kremlin narrative, revealing the unacknowledged sacrifices borne by Russia's ghost army.

In part one of a three part series, VICE News travels to Russia to investigate the small but steady stream of coffins arriving in villages across the country, containing maimed bodies of soldiers killed in "unknown circumstances."

WNU Editor: Parts 2 and 3 are also included below.

Ukraine Pays For One Day Of Gas Supplies, Russia Demands More

Pipes and valves are seen at an underground gas storage facility in the village of Mryn, 120 km (75 miles) north of Kiev May 21, 2013. Credit: REUTERS/Gleb Garanich

Reuters: Ukraine sends small prepayment for Russian gas

* Ukraine sent $15 mln payment
* Gazprom had threatened to cut off supply
* European Commission has proposed talks next Monday
* No threat to gas for Europe -Ukraine official

KIEV/KRASNOYARSK, Russia, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Ukraine has sent a small prepayment of $15 million to Russia for March natural gas deliveries, energy officials from the two sides said on Friday, after Moscow threatened to cut off supply.

In their latest dispute, Ukraine and Russia have argued over who should pay for Russian gas sent to two rebel-held areas of eastern Ukraine after supply from Kiev was cut off.

WNU Editor: This is pathetic .... the Ukraine government only had $15 million in the bank to pay for one day of natural gas from Russia ... but they want a month of gas supplies for this payment. And what is their Plan B ... they are now hoping that the West would send them some gas (on credit of course) .... Ukraine says hopes for more gas from Europe in March (Reuters).

More News On Ukraine's Energy Crisis

Ukraine sends small prepayment for Russian gas -- Reuters
Cash-strapped Ukraine struggles to keep Russia gas supplies -- AP
Ukraine pays Gazprom $15mn for 24 hours worth of gas -- RT
Gazprom Confirms Ukraine Pays $15 Million, Enough For One Day -- Radio Free Europe
Ukraine makes gas payment ahead of energy talks with Russia -- Deutsche Welle

Russian President Putin: Apocalyptic War Against Ukraine Unlikely

Russian President Vladimir Putin (RIA Novosti/Aleksey Nikolskyi)

BBC: Russia's Vladimir Putin says war with Ukraine 'unlikely'

The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has said war with neighbouring Ukraine is "unlikely", in an interview for Russian television.

Mr Putin also stressed his support for the Minsk agreement as the best way to stabilise eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine has said there is clear evidence Russia is helping the rebels in the east, something Russia denies.

Update: Putin rules out apocalyptic war scenario in Ukraine -- Russia Beyond The Headlines

WNU Editor: At least the leaders of both Ukraine and Russia are still talking to each other .... Putin Says Keeps Contact With Ukrainian President Despite Kiev’s Rhetoric (Sputnik).

Did Putin Approve A Ukraine Invasion Before The Collapse Of The Yanukovych Government Last Year?

Russia's President Vladimir Putin (R) and his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yanukovich attend a signing ceremony after a meeting of the Russian-Ukrainian Interstate Commission at the Kremlin in Moscow, December 17, 2013. REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin

McClathcy News: Russian news report: Putin approved Ukraine invasion before Kiev government collapsed

BERLIN — A Russian newspaper claims to have an official government strategy document outlining the invasion of Ukraine that was prepared weeks before the Ukrainian government collapsed last year.

The editor of Novaya Gazeta, Dmitri Muratov, reported the document during an interview with Echo of Moscow, a radio station. In the interview, which was reported by news outlets Saturday, he did not reveal how the newspaper came into possession of the document in the media unfriendly Russian world, but said he had confidence it was authentic.

WNU Editor: The possibility that Moscow may have developed military plans for Ukraine does not surprise me .... all governments have plans for military contingencies should they arise. The big question is .... did Putin approve this plan (or any other plan) ... and is there any official evidence of this order. I doubt that any such order exists, but Dmitri Muratov has promised to publish this document this weekend .... and I am definitely looking forward to reading it.

More News On Reports That Putin Approved A Ukraine Invasion Before The Collapse Of The Yanukovych Government Last Year

Report to Allege Direct Kremlin Link to Ukraine Invasion -- VOA
Russian newspaper cites Ukraine invasion plans -- Tribune News Service
Vladimir Putin Plotted Ukraine Invasion Early As February 2014, New Report Says -- Inquisitr
Russia Approved Ukraine Invasion Weeks Before Kiev Govt Collapsed -- Value Walk

Russia Optimistic On Ukraine Peace Deal

Reuters: Russia optimistic on Ukraine deal, warns on arming Kiev

WNU Editor: Publicly Russia is supportive of these peace talks .... privately they have doubts. They also clearly do not trust Ukraine President Poroshenko .... nor the U.S.. Beneath the surface there is a lot of anger from Russia being directed at both Kiev and Washington for the current crisis.

More News On Russia Voicing Optimism That A Ukraine Peace Deal is Possible

Lavrov: US escalated Ukraine crisis at every stage & blamed Russia -- RT
Lavrov says deal 'possible' to resolve Ukraine conflict -- Zee News
Russia's Lavrov says 'grounds for optimism' on Ukraine deal -- ITV
Ukraine crisis cannot be resolved by force, says Lavrov -- BBC
Optimism for Ukraine peace deal from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov -- Euronews

Poll: Russian Support For Eastern Ukraine Independence Now At 60%

Members of the separatist self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic drive armoured vehicles, with Saint George slaying the Dragon displayed on a red flag, near Yenakiieve, Donetsk region, Feb. 4, 2015. Maxim Shemetov / Reuters

Moscow Times: Most Russians Want Eastern Ukraine to Break Away from Kiev, Poll Shows

WNU Editor: I am surprised by these poll numbers .... when the crisis first began most Russians made it very clear that they did not want to be directly involved in Ukraine's conflict ... but since the beginning of this year they are now shifting the other way. I do not know if this is a trend .... but I do know that if the U.S. does start to ship weapons to Ukraine .... Russian public opinion will shift again and Putin in turn will be put under tremendous pressure to respond. As much as we in the West would like to think that Putin is Russia's "new Czar" .... he is still a politician who needs to get elected ... and if he does not respond to what the electorate wants there will be consequences for him in public opinion, among his supporters and allies, and definitely at the polls.

What Will Russia's Response Be If The U.S. Sends Arms to Ukraine

Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko (front), Russia's President Vladimir Putin (R) and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attend a meeting with high-ranked officials representing Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and the European Union in Minsk, August 26, 2014. REUTERS/Mykola Lazarenko/Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout

Stephen Collinson, CNN: What will Putin do if U.S. arms Ukraine?

WNU Editor: The focus is on what Putin will do if U.S. arms are shipped to Ukraine .... and on that question no one knows for sure on what the reaction will be. But another question needs to be asked .... what will those who are fighting in eastern Ukraine and who are from the region do if these arms start to come in .... and on that question their answer has been very clear .... escalation and more fighting. For as long as I can remember ... the people in eastern Ukraine have a long history of being stubborn and independent. The first strikes that occurred in the Soviet Union that led to its dissolution started in Donetsk .... and even though Moscow used brutal force in suppressing these strikes .... they eventually failed and the strikes started to erupt elsewhere. The point that I am trying to make is that if Moscow was not able to control this region during the days of the Soviet Union .... they are certainly not going to control them today. But the West does not see it this way .... it is all about Putin and what he thinks .... but I would wager a bet that Putin is sometimes wondering if he is being pushed around by the pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine .... that it is their agenda that he is implementing and not necessarily his.

More Russians Are Now Expecting War With Ukraine

RT: More Russians expect full scale war with Ukraine, poll shows

WNU Editor: I still do not believe that war between Ukraine and Russia will happen .... but my opinion is rapidly becoming a minority opinion in Russia.

Ukraine President Poroshenko At Davos Forum: Russia Has 9,000 Troops In Ukraine

Reuters: Russia has 9,000 troops on Ukrainian soil, Poroshenko tells Davos forum

WNU Editor: Russia is denying Ukrainian claims that their soldiers are aiding the rebels .... Russia says no proof it sent troops, arms to east Ukraine (Reuters). But among these claims and counter-claims .... the war is escalating and the truce is dead .... As fighting deepens in eastern Ukraine, casualties rise and truce is all but dead (Washington Post)

More News On Ukraine Claims That There Are 9,000 Russian Soldiers On Ukraine Soil Aiding Pro-Russian Rebels

Poroshenko says over 9,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine -- Daily Star/AFP
More than 9,000 Russian troops in Ukraine - President -- RTE
Poroshenko: 2,000 Russian troops cross Ukraine border -- Interfax-Ukraine
Pres Poroshenko: Jan. 21, over 2,000 Russian troops, 200 tanks and APCs crossed the border and invaded Ukraine -- ZIK
Ukraine president points to Russian hand in conflict -- AP
Poroshenko Sees Grave Danger Ukraine Conflict Will Escalate -- Bloomberg
Poroshenko condemns Russian 'terror' in Davos speech -- Deutsche Welle
Ukraine accuses Russia of attack -- News24

Ukraine Is Claiming That Its Forces Are Under Attack From Russian Troops

BBC: Ukraine accuses Russian troops of attacking its forces

WNU Editor: The situation in Ukraine is unraveling .... Ukrainian leader cuts short Davos visit as situation 'worsens' (AFP).

More News On The Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine Accuses Russia of Sending More Troops and Artillery to Aid Rebels -- New York Times
Ukraine Says Russian Troops Join Separatists in New Assaults -- Bloomberg
Ukraine says its forces come under attack from Russian troops -- Reuters
'Russian forces' attack Ukraine troops in separatist east -- AFP
Kyiv Says Russian Military Attacked Its Forces Inside Eastern Ukraine -- VOA
Ukraine military accuses Russia of direct attack on its forces -- Euronews
Ukraine Reports Attack By Russian Troops On Eve Of Talks -- Radio Free Europe
Ukraine accuses Russia of firing on troops near Donetsk -- Deutsche Welle
Russian forces, equipment enter Ukraine, PM says -- CNN
Ukraine Conflict: Kiev Claims It's Threatened By Rebel Air Power Backed By Russia -- IBTimes
Ukraine faces threat of Russian air power as conflict takes turn for the worse -- Kyiv Post
Claims that Russian forces entered Ukraine 'complete rubbish,' Russia says -- CNN
Russia denies new Ukraine troop incursion as civilian casualties mount -- Euronews
Hospital and university hit as Ukraine clashes flare -- AFP
Fighting Has Flared Up in Ukraine, Raising Fears of All-Out War Once Again -- Time
Ukraine calls up 50000 reservists after sharp escalation in hostilities -- The Telegraph
Ukraine conflict: Security in east deteriorating, say observers -- BBC
As fighting deepens in eastern Ukraine, death toll rises -- Washington Post
The Guardian View of war in Ukraine: maintain the pressure on Russia -- Guardian editorial

Report: Russia is Sending Fresh Military Shipments And Supplies To Pro-Russian Rebels In Eastern Ukraine

Eliot Higgins, Business Insider/Bellingcat: Fresh Russian Vehicles Are Showing Up In Eastern Ukraine

WNU Editor: I have been hearing and reading reports in the past two weeks of fresh Russian military shipments to the rebels in eastern Ukraine .... it looks like this report confirms it.

Ukraine Pays Russia For The Resumption Of Natural Gas Shipments

© ITAR-TASS/Vitaly Grabar

Ukraine, Feeling Winter Chill, Pays $378 Million For Russian Gas -- Reuters

(Reuters) - With freezing temperatures gripping Kiev, Ukraine's state energy firm Naftogaz said on Friday it had transferred $378 million to Russia's Gazprom to buy Russian gas for December, paving the way for the first shipments since Moscow cut supplies in June.

Flows to Ukraine from Russia were severed in a dispute over prices and debts. In line with a deal signed by Naftogaz and Gazprom in October, they should resume within 48 hours from when the Russian firm receives the transfer.

Cash-strapped Kiev had delayed buying new supplies, but increasingly cold weather has forced it to draw down on severely depleted reserves.

Read more ....

More News On Ukraine Paying Russia For The Resumption Of Natural Gas Shipments

Ukraine Pays Gazprom $378 Million to Resume Gas Shipment -- Bloomberg Businessweek
Debt-ridden Ukraine buys 1 bcm of Russian gas as winter gains force -- RT
Ukraine’s Naftogaz says it has transferred $378 mln in advance payment for Russian gas -- ITAR-TASS
Ukraine Pays Russia For Future Gas -- Radio Free Europe

My Comment: Winter is now settling in .... and as temperatures plunge ..... Ukraine has no choice but to pay up. What is also becoming a serious problem are rolling blackouts due to shortages of coal .... Coal crunch forces Ukraine to seek Russian power supplies (AFP) .... this has the potential to become a serious problem next month when power consumption is at its maximum due to the cold of winter.

Update: Ukraine's economic problems to build up .... Ukraine Prepares for Truce With Rebels as Economic Woes Deepen (Bloomberg). Everyone that I know in Ukraine .... family, friends, associates, etc .... they are all telling me the same thing .... there are now in panic mode as they see inflation and unemployment climbing uncontrollably, while government services and assistance becoming non-existent.

Update #2: I am not surprised .... Ukraine power company boss detained over botched coal deal (Reuters).

Update #3: Apparently Russia can force Ukraine into default at the end of this month .... Putin Bailout Haunts Ukraine With Early Repayment Clause (Bloomberg Businessweek).

Many Russian Soldiers Have Died (And Are Dying) In Ukraine

The War in Ukraine Is Killing Lots of Russians -- Paul Richard Huard, War Is Boring

Trucks marked ‘Gruz 200' could be hearses for Moscow’s dead.

The Kremlin has gone to great lengths to deny any direct involvement in the war in Ukraine, even as Russian soldiers have entered eastern Ukraine in increasing numbers since April to fight alongside pro-Moscow separatists.

But despite tactics ranging from blunt official denials to government pressure on soldiers’ families to remain silent, there is mounting evidence that Russian soldiers are not just fighting in Ukraine.

They are dying there in large numbers.

Read more ....

My Comment: The mass majority of Russians (if not almost all) .... are against any Russian military action in support of the Ukraine pro-Russian rebels. Sending relief convoys/humanitarian missions .... there is universal support .... sending in soldiers .... zero if any support. This is why these deaths are being kept as secret as possible ... public reaction and opposition will be swift and overwhelming. But by keeping it secret it fuels speculation and rumor that thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed .... not the hundreds that my best sources have been telling me. My advice to the Kremlin is to come clean ... and take the hit that it will entail. But .... I very much doubt that such an action is even being contemplated by Putin and his aides.

Update: The above video is from Russia (it is in Russian) that reveals the extent of Russian military deaths in Ukraine, and why the Kremlin's attempts to keep it secret are no longer working.

Ukraine Prepares For War

Ukraine Readies For Possible Russian-Backed Attack -- Voice of America

DONETSK AND LUHANSK PROVINCES, UKRAINE - Ukraine's military is preparing to repel a possible assault by Russian-backed rebels in the east following reports of Russian military reinforcements crossing the border.

Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko said Monday in an interview with the daily German daily Bild that the country is ready for total war.

Ukraine's military is beefing up its defenses just a few kilometers from rebel-held territory in the Luhansk region.

Private Sergai Eava with the 39th battalion said the Ukraine soldiers have to be prepared.

Read more ....

Update #1: Poroshenko Says Ukraine 'Ready For Total War' -- Radio Free Europe
Update #2: Eastern Ukraine Braces for ‘Full-Scale War’ -- Jamie Dettmer, Daily Beast

My Comment: Ukraine's economy is in a mess .... and getting worse .... so this focus on war is a welcomed diversion .... which may actually (in the end) happen.

Ukraine President Poroshenko: Country Is 'Ready For Total War' With Russia

Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko claimed his country was "prepared for total war" against Russian forces. Thomas Peter, Reuters

Ukraine Crisis: Petro Poroshenko Says Country Is 'Ready For Total War' With Russia -- ABC news (Australia)

Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko says his country is "prepared for total war" as fighting continues around the pro-Russian rebel stronghold of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

Fresh volleys of artillery fire were heard across many parts of Donetsk overnight, fuelling fears of a military build-up amongst rebel forces.

The latest clashes come amid a nominal ceasefire that has halted fighting along much of the frontline but not stopped regular artillery bombardments at strategic hotspots.

Government forces and rebels have accused each other of violating the terms of the truce, raising fears it could collapse entirely.

Read more ....

More News On Ukrainian President Poroshenko Stating That His Country Is 'Ready For Total War' With Russia

Ukraine President is 'ready for total war' -- SKY News
Ukraine ‘ready for total war’ says Petro Poroshenko -- The Australian/AFP
I am not afraid of war with Russia: Poroshenko -- Press TV

Putin Comments On The Crisis In Ukraine

November 13, 2014. Russian President Vladimir Putin answers questions of ARD channel's representative Hubert Seipel during an interview to the channel (RIA Novosti / Michael Klimentyev)

Putin: Russia Concerned by Threat of Ethnic Cleansing in Ukraine -- Sputnik

In an interview with German channel ARD Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow was concerned by the risk of ethnic cleansing in Ukraine, adding that Kiev should stop using force in southeastern regions and create conditions for a political dialogue.

MOSCOW, November 17 (Sputnik) – Moscow is concerned by the risk of ethnic cleansing in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Sunday.

"We are very concerned that an idea of ethnic cleansing could arise there. We are afraid of Ukraine slipping into neo-Nazism,” the Russian leader said in an interview with German ARD broadcaster.

“It will be a disaster for Ukraine and Ukrainian people," he stressed.

Read more ....

More News On Russian President Putin Commenting On The Crisis In Ukraine

Russia fears ethnic cleansing in Ukraine amid rise of neo-Nazism – Putin -- RT
Russia to prevent Ukrainian authorities annihilating political opponents in east - Putin -- ITAR-TASS
Russia won't allow Ukraine to 'destroy' opponents, says Putin -- World Bulletin
Putin: ‘Supporting Russophobia in Ukraine will result in catastrophe’ -- RT
Putin: Ukraine cut-off of funding, services in eastern provinces 'big mistake' -- i24 News/AFP
Putin Scolds Ukraine for Cutting Links With East Regions -- Bloomberg Businessweek
Russia expects Ukraine crisis to end - Putin -- ITAR-TASS
Putin says he's convinced solution to Ukraine crisis possible -- Reuters

A Russia - Ukraine War This Winter?

Is Russia Planning A Winter Offensive? -- Michael Kofman, CNN

(CNN) -- The buildup of separatist forces in Donetsk, Ukraine, and Moscow's patently confrontational tone are raising the specter of another offensive in eastern Ukraine before winter grips the region. On Wednesday, NATO warned that "columns of Russian equipment, primarily Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defense systems and Russian combat troops" had been spotted entering Ukraine.

Is this crisis about to flare up again, just two months after Russia withdrew its forces?

Given the strategic costs, it might seem unlikely that Russia would reignite this war, especially with winter looming. Yet both the opportunity and the motivation appear to be there in Moscow.

The invasion of Ukraine and confrontation with the West have whipped up nationalist sentiment, but Russia has run out of foreign policy victories to feed to the fire. That might explain why Moscow is aggravating NATO with airspace violations and playing alleged underwater games with Sweden, moves that appear aimed at keeping the Russian public in a confrontational mood.

Read more ....

Update #1: New Ukraine offensive 'unlikely' despite build-up fears: experts -- AFP
Update #2: A Showdown Over Ukraine Is Coming -- Matt Siegel, Reuters

WNU Editor: My analysis and predictions on the Ukraine crisis is here. Putin is now in Australia attending the G20 meeting .... what happens when he comes back is what will dictate the future course of events in the Ukraine conflict .... and I am betting that he and the separatists in eastern Ukraine are going to intensify the conflict.