Is Russia Planning A Winter Offensive? -- Michael Kofman, CNN
(CNN) -- The buildup of separatist forces in Donetsk, Ukraine, and Moscow's patently confrontational tone are raising the specter of another offensive in eastern Ukraine before winter grips the region. On Wednesday, NATO warned that "columns of Russian equipment, primarily Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defense systems and Russian combat troops" had been spotted entering Ukraine.
Is this crisis about to flare up again, just two months after Russia withdrew its forces?
Given the strategic costs, it might seem unlikely that Russia would reignite this war, especially with winter looming. Yet both the opportunity and the motivation appear to be there in Moscow.
The invasion of Ukraine and confrontation with the West have whipped up nationalist sentiment, but Russia has run out of foreign policy victories to feed to the fire. That might explain why Moscow is aggravating NATO with airspace violations and playing alleged underwater games with Sweden, moves that appear aimed at keeping the Russian public in a confrontational mood.
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Update #1: New Ukraine offensive 'unlikely' despite build-up fears: experts -- AFP
Update #2: A Showdown Over Ukraine Is Coming -- Matt Siegel, Reuters
WNU Editor: My analysis and predictions on the Ukraine crisis is here. Putin is now in Australia attending the G20 meeting .... what happens when he comes back is what will dictate the future course of events in the Ukraine conflict .... and I am betting that he and the separatists in eastern Ukraine are going to intensify the conflict.
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