Is There A Real Chance Of War With Russia? (A Discussion)

People flee from their homes on the outskirts of Donetsk, eastern Ukraine. (Reuters/Maxim Shemetov)

Stephen Cohen, Nation: There Is a Real Chance of War With Russia

Will diplomacy prevail in Ukraine? The Nation’s Stephen Cohen joined The John Batchelor Show on Tuesday to discuss the feasibility of the Minsk II agreement and the increased war footing among NATO officials and policymakers in Washington.

Cohen argued that the “rhetorical war” on Minsk II is based on “political ideological imaginations,” because there is no “hard intelligence to back up the claims that there’s been this massive Russian invasion.” If Minsk II fails and fighting escalates, the United States and NATO face “a real chance of war with Russia,” Cohen said.

WNU Editor: I do not share Stephen Cohen's bleak pessimism (I still have hope that our better angels will be listened to), but it is also true that I have not seen tensions this high since the start of the Cold War. If you have 40 minutes to spare, this is a discussion well worth listening to.

Russian Foreign Ministry: U.S. Delivery of Arms To Ukraine Will Be Seen As A Threat To Russian Security

Reuters: Russia sees security threat if U.S. gives Kiev lethal arms

WNU Editor: Shipment of arms to Ukraine will be seen by Russia as a U.S./NATO attempt to not only start a proxy war against Russia, but to also dissolve the Post-Cold War understandings on Russian - European national security concerns. This is an ominous development .... and Russia will respond.

More News On Russian Reports That U.S. Delivery of Arms To Ukraine Will Be Seen As A Threat To Russian Security

Possible US arms supplies to Ukraine threaten Russia's secutiry — Foreign Ministry -- ITAR-TASS
Russia warns US arms to Ukraine will cause 'colossal damage' to ties -- Global Post/AFP
Russia warns US against sending weapons to Ukraine -- Global Times
Russia Foreign Ministry: U.S. Delivery of Arms to Ukraine is Threat to Russian Security -- Nasdaq
Russia says giving lethal arms to Ukraine would be security threat -- APA

These Are The 5 U.S. Weapons That Russia Should Fear

Reuters

Zachary Keck, National Interest: 5 U.S. Weapons of War Russia Should Fear

WNU Editor: Being one who grew up and lived on the other side (Russia) for most of my life .... I can say this without hesitation ..... there was only one U.S. weapon that we all feared .... America's nuclear arsenal.

What Can The West Do To Prevent A Ukraine Defeat?

What Can The US And NATO Do To Prevent Putin From Defeating Ukraine? -- Quartz

The new incursion into Ukrainian territory by Russian forces has led some veteran US foreign policy hands to call for a quick and highly visible Western airlift of military equipment to Kyiv. The aim: to prevent a Russian rout of Ukraine.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, former US secretary of state George Shultz and ex-defense secretary William Perry urged the US and NATO to deploy forces in the Baltics, and equipment in Ukraine.

The prospects a swift victory for Russian president Vladimir Putin’s forces grew dramatically on Aug. 26, when a column of Russian armor appeared over the border at Novoazovsk, sending the Ukrainian troops into a full, panicked retreat. Russian forces today occupied the town, and are reportedly advancing to the strategic port of Mariupol.

Read more ....

My Comment: This discussion is now moot .... President Obama made it very clearly yesterday that there will be no U.S. military support of Ukraine during this crisis.

President Obama Comments On The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

Obama Vows Russia Penalties, But Avoids Calling Ukraine Advance An Invasion -- New York Times

WASHINGTON — President Obama condemned the latest Russian military advance into Ukraine on Thursday and said the United States and its allies would take further actions to punish Moscow for violating its neighbor’s sovereignty, but he stopped short of calling it an invasion.

“My expectation is we will take additional steps primarily because we have not seen any meaningful action on the part of Russia to try to resolve this in a diplomatic fashion,” he told reporters in a news conference at the White House. “The sanctions that we’ve already applied have been effective. Our intelligence shows the Russians know they’ve been effective.”

Grappling with multiple international crises, Mr. Obama also confirmed that he had asked Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel for options for American military strikes inside Syria targeting forces of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, which has established a virtual state across the border of those two countries. But he cautioned against expecting imminent action, saying he wanted to build a formidable international coalition first.

Read more ....

More News On President Obama Comments On The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

Obama Puts Ukraine Violence Squarely on Russia -- AP
President Obama blames Russia for violence in Ukraine as footage shows Russian tanks rolling across the border -- Daily Mail
Obama Warns Russia Over 'Ongoing Incursion' Into Ukraine -- Radio Free Europe
Obama Blames Russia For Violence In Ukraine; Calls Moves 'Incursion' -- NPR
Obama Blames Russia for Ukraine Violence, Vows Sanctions -- Bloomberg
Obama suggests further sanctions against Russia over Ukraine incursion -- The Guardian
Obama threatens Russia with new sanctions over Ukraine -- RT

My Comment: Putin is going to take away two points from today's statement by President Obama .... (1) Obama rules out military action (AP), and (2) No Military Aid For Ukraine (Daily caller).

Update: Matt Connolly's commentary is spot on .... Obama Has Tough Talk for Russia, But Not Much Else -- Policy.mic

U.S. Accuses Russia Of "Outright Lying" On Its Military Activity In Ukraine

U.S. Says Russia Has 'Outright Lied' About Ukraine -- USA Today

The U.S. told an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council Thursday that Russia has "outright lied" over its military activity in Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatists have been fighting the Ukrainian armed forces.

"Russian soldiers, tanks and air defense have supported and fight alongside separatists as they open a new front in a crisis manufactured and fueled by Russia," Samantha Power, U.S. ambassador to the U.N. told the council.

Power noted that it was not the first time that Russia has been called to account by the council for its activities inside Ukraine.

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Update #1: US believes Russian-directed counteroffensive 'likely underway' in Ukraine -- AP
Update #2: Russian troops 'directly' involved in Ukraine conflict: US, Kiev -- AFP

My Comment: Even though the evidence is now overwhelming that Russian military forces are now actively involved in Ukraine .... U.S. Officials Won’t Call Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine An “Invasion” -- Buzz Feed

U.S. And NATO Condemn Russia For Sending It's Aid Convoy Into Ukraine

U.S. Says Russia Must Pull Convoy From Ukraine Or Face More Sanctions -- Reuters

(Reuters) - The United States demanded Moscow remove an aid convoy it sent into rebel-held eastern Ukraine without permission on Friday, accusing Russia of a flagrant violation of the sovereignty of its former Soviet neighbor and threatening more sanctions.

Moscow, which has thousands of troops close to the Russian side of the border, warned against any attempt to "disrupt" the convoy, which it said was purely humanitarian; it did not say what action it might take if the Ukrainian military intervened.

NATO said Russian troops had been firing artillery across the border and within Ukraine in a major escalation of military support for pro-Moscow rebels since mid-August, a defacto charge that Russia was already waging war.

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More News On The U.S. And NATO Condemning Russia For Sending It's Aid Convoy Into Ukraine

US demands Russia withdraw aid convoy from Ukraine -- France 24/AFP
NATO condemns Moscow’s aid convoy, says Russian artillery is firing at Ukrainian army -- Washington Post
Kiev, West slam Russia's convoy 'invasion' in east Ukraine -- AFP
US condemns Russian move into Ukraine -- AP
EU condemns Russia convoy entering Ukraine, urges Moscow to reverse decision -- Reuters

Russia responds ....

Putin to Merkel: Further delays of aid delivery to Ukraine would have been unacceptable -- RT
Putin to Merkel: Russia Not to Allow Further Delay in Aid Delivery to East Ukraine -- RIA Novosti

What Will The U.S. Do If Russia And Ukraine Go To War

A Ukrainian serviceman guards a checkpoint outside Donetsk. Thomson Reuters

The United States Will Face Tough Choices If Russia And Ukraine Go To War -- Peter Apps, Business Insider/Reuters

If Russia and Ukraine slide into outright war, the United States and allies will face tough choices on how to support a friendly state they have no intention of making a full NATO member.

In what appeared to be a dramatic escalation on Friday, Ukraine said it had destroyed much of a column of armored vehicles that had entered its territory from Russia.

Moscow dismissed the account as "fantasy". NATO confirmed what it described as an "incursion". Ukraine did not specify if the vehicles were manned by Russian troops or separatist rebels, and it was not immediately clear if Russia would respond.

If Moscow ever took any such action against a NATO member, that would inevitably trigger the alliance's Chapter 5 mutual defense clause, essentially committing it to war. Ukraine, however, is not a member and Western officials say is unlikely to become one any time soon.

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My Comment: If the unthinkable happens .... and war breaks out between Ukraine and Russia .... the U.S. and Europe will distance themselves as far as possible away from the conflict. In such a worse case scenario .... their focus will be on levying "extreme" political and economic sanctions.

Russian Bombers Are Increasingly Testing U.S. And Canadian Airspace (Updated)

In September 2006, a U.S. F-15 Eagle from Elmendorf Air Force Base intercepted a Russian Tu-95 Bear bomber on a training exercise near the west coast of Alaska.(Photo: U.S. Air Force)

Russian Bombers Increase Flights Near U.S. Airspace -- USA Today

For the second time since June, Russian nuclear bombers escorted by fighter jets have flown near U.S. and Canadian airspace around Alaska in recent days, prompting precautionary intercepts by American warplanes.

The encounters come amid Russian war games along the border with eastern Ukraine, raising Western concerns that Moscow might invade to support pro-Moscow separatists battling the Kiev government since spring.

A U.S. air command official acknowledged at least 16 Russian forays around Alaska and northern Canada in the past 10 days, describing them as routine training missions. One intercept spotted a Russian spy plane among the Tupolev Tu-95 "Bear" bombers and Tu-142 reconnaissance and anti-submarine aircraft.

Read more ....

More News On Russian Bombers Increasingly Testing U.S. And Canadian Airspace

Russian bombers on training missions intercepted by U.S. fighter jets off coast off Alaska -- New York Daily News
Russian Strategic Bombers Conduct More Than 16 Incursions of U.S. Air Defense Zones -- Washington Free Beacon
Russian nuclear-capable bombers 'tested' US air defences 16 times in last 10 days -- RT
Russian bombers testing US defenses? -- The Hill
World War 3? Russian Bombers With Nuclear Weapons Buzz California And Alaska, Claims United States -- Inquistr
National Security Breach: Russian Bombers Penetrate US Airspace 16 Times In The Last 10 Days -- Western Journalism
NORAD Confirms ‘Spike in Activity’ Regarding Russian Bombers and U.S. Air Defense Zones — Guess How Close They’re Coming -- The Blaze
Drudge Report Focus: Russian Bombers in US Airspace 16 Times in 10 Days -- Epoch Times