Can The Chinese Military Crush America In A War?

U.S. President Barack Obama (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands at the end of their news conference in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing November 12, 2014 (Reuters / Kevin Lamarque)

Zachary Keck, National Interest: Most Chinese Say Their Military Can Crush America in Battle

The vast majority of Chinese citizens believe the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could seize islands in the East and South China Seas, even if the U.S. military were to intervene in the conflicts.

No less than 87 percent of respondents said that the Chinese military already possessed the capability to take back the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands from Japan, according to a recent public opinion poll. When asked whether they still believed the PLA could achieve this objective if the U.S. intervened in the conflict, 74 percent said yes.

WNU Editor: My last trip to China was over two years ago .... so I am a little bit "out of touch". But at that time the Chinese did not only have the confidence to defeat a country like Japan, but they also felt confident that they could hold back any conventional military reprisal from the U.S. .... but they were still worried and unsure. Fast forward to today .... this Chinese sentiment of being able to defeat the U.S. in a conflict is a frightening development because deterrence has always been a lynchpin to U.S. national security .... especially against countries like China. If that is failing .... this will then change the dynamics profoundly not only against China, but elsewhere.

Are The U.S. And China Destined For War?

Harry J. Kazianis, National Interest: The Ultimate Nightmare: Are the U.S. and China Destined for War?

Will the eagle and the dragon meet on the battlefield?

There is no geo-strategic relationship of more importance than that of the U.S. and China. Yet, tensions between Washington and Beijing over the last few years have been building. Over the last few weeks I have been exploring on these pages some of the pathways the unthinkable could happen: a U.S.-China war. We have also been exploring the various paths to victory both sides could utilize. While all of this is important, it is also important to take a step back and look at the U.S.-China relationship from another viewpoint of equal and possibly even greater value—a dilemma in the relationship that is creating its own set of tensions: the budding high-tech security dilemma pitting Washington and Beijing against one another.

WNU Editor: The short answer is no .... the U.S. and China are not destined for war. But what I fear is more likely is a Chinese war with one of our allies in the region .... and that is the crux of the problem.

Why China Would Lose A War Against America

The People's Republic of China flag and the U.S. Stars and Stripes fly along Pennsylvania Avenue near the U.S. Capitol in Washington during Chinese President Hu Jintao's state visit, January 18, 2011. Credit: Reuters/Hyungwon Kang

Harry J. Kazianis, National Interest: Revealed: Why China Would Lose a War against America

Chinese military might has grown considerably. However, Beijing's weaknesses abound.

Let’s not mince words: a U.S.-China war would be hell on earth. It would likely start World War III. Millions— maybe billions— of people would die if nuclear weapons were ever used in such a conflict. The global economy would likely face ruin— that’s what happens when the world’s biggest economic powers start shooting at each other. Thankfully the chances are remote it will ever happen. Yet, the threat of such a conflict remains thanks to the many different pressure points in the U.S.-China relationship. Forget the challenge of ISIS, Ukraine, Syria or whatever the flavor of the moment is. The U.S.-China relationship— and whether it remains peaceful or not— is the most important challenge of our time. Period.

WNU Editor: I do not see anyone actually sitting down and signing papers that would say that they have surrendered unconditionally .... both sides would rather use nuclear weapons before it reached that level. But in the event of a war (without the use of nuclear weapons) .... I can easily see huge engagements and the expenditures of literally trillions of dollars and millions of lives to set the table for ceasefires/negotiations/talks .... especially since no one is capable of completely subduing and occupying the other. Would China be on top .... I doubt it. Asia is a continent made up of multiple alliances and spheres of cooperation, and in that world China will have a problem since all of these states enjoy their independence, and many of them look at the U.S. as a guarantor of this independence. In any conflict these factors will come into play .... and as hard as it is to be believed .... China will always be a minority in that mix.

This Is China's Strategy To Crush The U.S. In A War

File photo of Chinese Navy submarines and warships taking part in an international fleet review to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army Navy in Qingdao, Shandong Province. Guang Niu, Reuters

Harry J. Kazianis, National Interest: Exposed: China's Super Strategy to Crush America in a War

Think missiles. Lots and lots of missiles. Welcome to Shock and Awe, Chinese-style.

We all know that the chances of a U.S.-Sino war in Asia are remote— thank God. With hundreds of billions of dollars in bilateral trade, the strong possibility that such a conflict would draw in most of Asia’s big geopolitical players, as well as the very real eventuality that such a conflict could go global (and nuclear), is enough to shut down such apocalyptic thoughts. However, as I discussed last week, there is enough pressure points between the two superpowers that sudden tensions could spark a crisis— a crisis that could spiral out of control if cooler heads don’t prevail.

The purpose of this article is straightforward and scary enough: what if Beijing found itself in a situation where it felt war was inevitable with Washington (a crisis over Taiwan, a crisis in the East or South China Seas etc.)— how would it procede?

WNU Editor: It should be noted that there are also many who do not believe that China has what it takes  to defeat the U.S. and its allies in a war .... Ten Reasons Why China Will Have Trouble Fighting a Modern War (Dennis J. Blasko, War On The Rocks).

How The U.S. And China Could Stumble Into War

(Laris Karklis/The Washington Post)

Harry J. Kazianis, National Interest: 5 Ways the U.S. and China Could Stumble Into War

World War III may not be as unlikely as you think.

Over the last few years, I have undertaken what most would consider a depressing assignment: debating and thinking through the possibility of a great-power war in today’s chaotic international environment. And for good reason. As Washington attempts to transition away from counterinsurgency operations and the nightmare that has become the Middle East, new challenges—many from revisionist great powers—seem to be popping up around the globe. The crisis in Ukraine—with many now openly calling the state of U.S.-Russian relations “Cold War 2.0”—serves as perhaps the best example of such a chilling possibility.

WNU Editor: Some wars in this region have started for far less.

Preventing A US-China Nuclear War

Fang Fenghui (L), chief of the general staff of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, holds a welcoming ceremony for Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, prior to their talks in Beijing, capital of China, April 22, 2013. (Xinhua/Xie Huanchi)

James Jay Carafano, The National Interest: Avoiding the Unthinkable: Preventing a US-China Nuclear War

"The goal is to leave everyone in Asia believing that when it comes to solving regional problems, there are better answers than the force of arms."

WNU Editor: Using the tactics, policies, and strategies that were effective in containing the Soviet Union during the Cold War are certainly not going to work with China. New strategies are going to be necessary ... and forming regional alliances with countries like Japan, India, etc. is probably the best route to take .... for now.

Will A U.S. Aircraft Carrier Make A Visit To China?

The USS George H.W. Bush, a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, is shown here underway in the Atlantic Ocean in 2011. (Photo by MC3 Nicholas Hall/ U.S. Navy)

Washington Post: McCain to Pentagon: Don’t let your aircraft carriers visit China

WNU Editor: Sending an aircraft carrier for a visit to China .... with today's tensions in Asia .... it is not going to happen.

Edward Snowden Leaks: The Chinese Military Is Spying On The Air Refueling Schedules For US Pacific Command

Several Carrier Air Wing 14 F/A-18 Hornets from the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan await refueling with a British Royal Air Force L-1011 tanker aircraft in southern Afghanistan, Oct. 9, 2008. The Hornets provide support to coalition forces on the ground. U.S. Navy photo by Cmdr. Erik Etz

Sam Roggeveen, The Interpreter: China cyberspies target more than just F-35

WNU Editor: In every conflict since World War II the U.S. has dominated air space .... a critical component of this domination has been its tanker fleet and its ability to supply U.S. fighters and bombers with fuel. The Chinese know this .... and as the Edward Snowden leaks reveal .... they are listing these tankers as high military targets in any future confrontation.

China Raises Issue Of U.S. Spy Flights Near Their Borders

A Chinese J-11 fighter jet is seen flying near a U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon about 215 km (135 miles) east of China's Hainan Island in this U.S. Department of Defense handout photo taken August 19, 2014. Credit: REUTERS/U.S. Navy/Handout

China Raised Issue Of U.S. Spy Flights During Military Talks: Pentagon -- Reuters

(Reuters) - China raised the thorny subject of U.S. military spy flights during talks that led to agreements this week on reducing friction between the two militaries, but was told U.S. missions in international airspace and waters would continue, the Pentagon said.

The closed-door conversations underscore China's sensitivity to surveillance by U.S. P-8 Poseidon spy planes and other aircraft, especially off Hainan Island, home to a major Chinese submarine base. A Chinese intercept of a P-8 plane in international airspace off Hainan in August was described as dangerous by Washington.

U.S. President Barack Obama announced the military agreements on Wednesday after meeting his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing.

Read more ....

Update: Beijing chides American spy flights during military talks - Pentagon -- RT

My Comment: This is sweet .... the U.S. warns Russia on bomber flights near the U.S. border .... US Warns Russia On Its Plans To Have Military Flights Near The American Border .... and now China is saying the same thing about U.S. spy flights near their borders.

And people wonder why I am cynical?

Are China And The United States Preparing For War?

Fang Fenghui (left), chief of General Staff of the People's Liberation Army, welcomes Martin Dempsey, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, in Beijing on Monday. Kuang Linhua / China Daily

China And The United States Are Preparing For War -- Michael Pillsbury, Foreign Policy

Despite the Obama-Xi handshake deal, the probability of confrontation will only heighten as long as the PLA remains a black box.

At a Nov. 12 news conference in Beijing, General Secretary of the Communist Party Xi Jinping and U.S. President Barack Obama agreed to notify the other side before major military activities, and to develop a set of rules of behavior for sea and air encounters, in order to avoid military confrontations in Asia. "It's incredibly important that we avoid inadvertent escalation," Ben Rhodes, a U.S. deputy national security advisor, was quoted by the Wall Street Journal as saying. An "accidental circumstance," he said, could "lead into something that could precipitate conflict."

Should we really be worried about war between the United States and China? Yes. Over the last four decades of studying China, I have spoken with hundreds of members of China's military, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), and read countless Chinese military journals and strategy articles. Chinese military and political leaders believe that their country is at the center of American war planning. In other words, Beijing believes that the United States is readying itself for the possibility of a conflict with China -- and that it must prepare for that eventuality.

Read more ....

My Comment: Will the Chinese military become open enough to satisfy their U.S. counterparts .... I doubt it. But the Chinese military has become "more open" in the past few years, to not only promote their role in China, but to also intimidate and warn their neighbors.

Why Is The White House Permitting China An Opportunity To Have A Close Look At Some U.S. Air Force Secrets?

A U.S. Air Force C-17 Globemaster III aircraft lands at Schoover Field, Fort Hunter Liggett, Calif., on May 14, 2011. DoD photo by Staff Sgt. Donald R. Allen, U.S. Air Force

Why The US Sent A C-17 To A Chinese Air Show Despite Concerns Inside The Pentagon -- Gordon Lubold and Marcus Weisgerber, Defense One

The U.S. military sent a giant C-17 cargo plane to an air show in China this week as a way to strengthen its relationship with the People’s Liberation Army there, despite fears among security and policy experts that doing so puts American technology secrets in jeopardy and also risks angering an important Asia ally.

The decision to send a Boeing C-17 Globemaster III to the China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition at the Zhuhai Jinwan airport starting Tuesday is fraught for a number of reasons, defense and security officials told Defense One, noting that President Barack Obama’s arrival in the region this week to help bolster ties with Beijing points up how political factors may have outweighed security, optical and even legal concerns.

Read more ....

My Comment: U.S. Secretary of Defense Hagel .... silent. National Security adviser Rice .... silent. The Joint Chiefs .... silent. CIA Director .... silent. Everyone is silent because no one wants to end up like this guy .... Senior Navy Intel Officer Removed for Controversial Comments on China (Defense News)

Is The U.S. Military Losing It's Technological Superiority Over China?

Fang Fenghui (L), chief of the general staff of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, holds a welcoming ceremony for Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, prior to their talks in Beijing, capital of China, April 22, 2013. (Xinhua/Xie Huanchi)

Pentagon: Military Losing Technological Superiority To China -- Jeryl Bier, Weekly Standard

During the first Gulf War in the early 1990s, the U.S. military used a new generation of technological weapons that left the rest of the world far behind. But according the Frank Kendall, the Pentagon's undersecretary of defense for acquisitions, technology, and logistics, that advantage is evaporating. Speaking at a breakfast at the Navy League in Arlington, Virginia on Wednesday, Kendall said the deterioration has continued during his four and a half years on the job, "in large part because of our budget situation," including sequestration. Claudette Roulo of DoD News reported on the under secretary's breakfast remarks:

When I talk to people on the Hill and I mention that I'm concerned about technological superiority, … I get a reaction that is a sort of surprise, first of all, and disbelief. … I think we have gotten so accustomed to our technological superiority militarily that it's just a given, and it's one of the things I kind of fight against when I try to have these conversations,” Kendall said.

Read more ....

My Comment: What does not help the U.S. technology advantage are reports like this one .... US Pilot: Thanks To Espionage, Chinese Stealth Fighters Could Match The F-35 (Jeremy Bender, Business Insider).

China Is Making It Very Clear That They Do Not Want U.S. Spy Planes Near Their Newest Submarine Base

A Chinese J-11 fighter jet is seen flying near a U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon about 215 km (135 miles) east of China's Hainan Island in this U.S. Department of Defense handout photo taken August 19, 2014. Credit: Reuters/U.S. Navy/Handout

Chinese Interceptions Of U.S. Military Planes Could Intensify Due To Submarine Base -- Reuters

(Reuters) - One Chinese naval officer has advice for fighter pilots intercepting U.S. surveillance planes in the wake of an incident over the South China Sea last week that Washington condemned as dangerous - fly even closer.

The comments by Rear Admiral Zhang Zhaozhong from the National Defense University in Beijing, reported in state media this week, reflect what Chinese military experts say is China's determination to shield its expanding ballistic missile submarine fleet from U.S. spy planes.

Risky intercepts off China's coast are likely to continue, even intensify, the experts said, adding that such actions could represent a directive from above rather than the actions of rogue pilots.

Read more ....

My Comment: Chinese soldiers rarely act alone .... and never on situations that involve the U.S. military.  This is China's way of sending a message to the U.S. to back-off .... and considering how intense they are on this issue, one has to wonder if  the U.S. comply?

What Will It Take For Either The U.S. Or China To Decide To Go To War With The Other?

Photo Credit: Reuters/Hyungwon Kang

When Might a Great Power War Make Sense? -- Ankit Panda, The Diplomat

What will it take for either the U.S. or China to decide to go to war with the other?

Last week, Alex Ward discussed the potential for a great power war between the United States and China. He framed his argument in terms of prominent international relations scholar Robert Gilpin’s “three preconditions,” as presented in his book War and Change in World Politics. Ward convincingly demonstrates that each of Gilpin’s preconditions is either close to being met in today’s world or has already been met, making the probably of a great power war between the U.S. and China, if not high, certainly non-zero. Ward notes that ” Gilpin’s framework serves as a good rubric by which to measure the current global climate,” noting further that “by all measures, this is certainly a dangerous time.”

Gilpin’s War and Change in World Politics is certainly an important work on state-centric realism, but it might be somewhat more useful to consider the work as a whole rather than just focusing on Gilpin’s three preconditions. While Gilpin does lay out the preconditions for war in chapter five, he frames his argument in the book more in terms of traditional economic theory, particularly expected utility theory.

Read more ....

My Comment: I just do not see such a major war happening .... but I do agree that if a war was to occur, it would likely be instigated by a Chinese conflict with a third party and the United States would be drawn in through treaty obligations.

The Growing U.S. - China Submarine Rivalry

Photo: Via Sinodefence.com

U.S.-China Rivalry Simmers Underseas -- Wall Street Journal

Pentagon Concerned About Beijing's Expanded Submarine Forces

SHANGHAI—A close midair encounter between U.S. and Chinese military planes last week reflected long-running tensions in the skies—a rivalry that is building under the waters below, as well.

The Defense Department didn't explain the mission for the U.S. Navy P-8 aircraft—a plane designed to track submarines—that was intercepted by a Chinese J-11 fighter over the South China Sea to the east of China's Hainan Island on Aug. 19. U.S. officials say in that encounter, and several others in recent months, Chinese fighter pilots have flown dangerously close to U.S. aircraft.

One Chinese rear admiral said the U.S. plane was likely spying on China's nuclear submarines.

Read more ....

My Comment: The seas are getting crowded.

U.S. And Chinese Military Officials Meet To Discuss Rules Of Behavior After Last Weeks Jet Intercept

A Chinese J-11 fighter jet is seen flying near a U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon about 215 km (135 miles) east of China's Hainan Island in this U.S. Department of Defense handout photo taken August 19, 2014. Credit: Reuters/U.S. Navy/Handout

U.S., Chinese Officials To Meet At Pentagon After Jet Intercept -- Reuters

(Reuters) - U.S. and Chinese military officials will hold talks on rules of behavior at the Pentagon on Tuesday and Wednesday, a U.S. official said, days after the United States denounced a "dangerous" Chinese jet intercept of a U.S. Navy patrol plane.

Last Tuesday, a Chinese fighter pilot flew acrobatic maneuvers around the U.S. Navy's P-8 Poseidon anti-submarine and reconnaissance plane, crossing over and under it in international airspace over the South China Sea, the Pentagon said.

At one point, the jet flew wingtip-to-wingtip about 10 yards (9 meters) from the Poseidon, then performed a barrel roll over the top of it. The U.S. defense official said other close intercepts occurred in March, April and May.

Read more ....

More News On U.S. And Chinese Military Officials Meeting To Discuss Rules Of Behavior After Last Weeks Jet Intercept

US China officials meet on rules of behaviour -- Business Standard/PTI
US, China Officials Meet After Navy Jet Intercept -- MarineLink.com
China and US in talks on code of conduct -- ECNS.cn
Chinese media warn US over warplane interception -- AFP
Chinese Intercepts of U.S. Aircraft: Rogue Pilots or Realpolitik? -- WSJ

Update: I guess nothing was resolved .... Pentagon: No Plan to Reduce Spy Flights .... Chinese general says interceptors should fly closer.

China Demands The U.S. To Stop Spy Flights Near It's Borders. Rejects Critciticms That One Of Their Fighter Jets Menaced A U.S. Spy plane

A U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon aircraft takes off from Perth International Airport in this April 16, 2014 file photo. Credit: Reuters/Greg Wood/Pool/Files

China Urges U.S. To Halt Close Air Surveillance After Encounter -- Bloomberg

China urged the U.S. to stop close reconnaissance after a Chinese fighter jet had an encounter with U.S. surveillance aircraft last week.

A U.S. navy P-3 anti-submarine plane and a P-8 patrol aircraft conducted a reconnaissance flight within 220 kilometers (137 miles) of Hainan Island and on Aug. 19, Yang Yujun, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of National Defense, said in a statement posted on the ministry’s website.

China sent a fighter to carry out routine identification and verification of the two U.S. planes, according to the statement. The fighter maintained a safe distance from the U.S. planes and the actions of its pilot were professional, China said.

Read more ....

More News On U.S. - Chinese Protests Over Close Encounter Between A Chinese Fighter And A U.S. Spy Plane

China urges U.S. to stop close-in surveillance -- CCTV.com
China and US exchange volleys over 'dangerous' aircraft contact -- Want China Times
China Requests that US Stop Surveilling its Territory - Reports -- RIA Novosti
China rejects U.S. criticism over jet encounter -- Reuters
China Defends Intercepting US Navy Plane -- AP
US, China clash over ‘dangerous’ jet interception -- AFP
China Calls US Intercept Complaint ‘Totally Groundless’ -- The Diplomat
China: Criticism of U.S. jet encounter 'groundless' -- USA Today
China Dismisses US Plane Intercept Accusations -- VOA
Analysis / Beijing intercepted U.S. plane to display air power -- Japan news/The Yomiuri Shimbun

Chinese Fighter Jet Buzzes U.S. Intelligence Plane Off The Coast Of Japan

Two U.S. Navy Boeing P-8A Poseidon (BuNo 168429, 168435) of Patrol Squadron VP-16 "War Eagles" refuel at Naval Air Facility Atsugi. The squadron's landing at NAF Atsugi was part of the Poseidon´s inaugural operational deployment. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Kegan E. Kay

Chinese Jet Threatened U.S. Intelligence Aircraft -- Washington Free Beacon

Su-27 flew within 50 feet of new P-8 anti-submarine warfare jet near Japan

A Chinese jet fighter flew dangerously close to a U.S. Navy P-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft near Japan this week in an encounter that highlights China’s continued aggressiveness in the region.

The P-8, a new, militarized Boeing-737 anti-submarine warfare aircraft, was conducting routine surveillance of the Chinese coast over the East China Sea on Monday when the incident occurred, said U.S. defense officials familiar with reports of the encounter.

Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Jeffrey Pool had no immediate comment but said he would provide “an explanation of the event” on Friday.

Read more ....

My Comment: Flying within 50 feet of the P-8 and then carrying out a barrel roll over the top of the aircraft .... this Chinese jet fighter was sending a message.