How A U.S. Prison Camp Help Spawn The Islamic State

Yuri Kozyrev/NOOR

Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassan, Daily Beast: ISIS Used a U.S. Prison as Boot Camp

In an excerpt from their new book on ISIS, Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassan show how jihadists used a U.S.-run Iraqi prison to coordinate with al Qaeda.

In ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror, American journalist Michael Weiss and Syrian analyst Hassan Hassan explain how these violent extremists evolved from a nearly defeated Iraqi insurgent group into a jihadi army of international volunteers who behead Western hostages in slickly produced videos and have conquered territory equal to the size of Great Britain. Beginning with the early days of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the founder of ISIS’s first incarnation as “al Qaeda in Iraq,” Weiss and Hassan explain who the key players are—from their elusive leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to the former Saddam Baathists in their ranks—where they come from, how the movement has attracted both local and global support, and where their financing comes from.

The following excerpt concerns Iraq midway through the first decade of this century.

WNU Editor: A depressing read .... they had a very good idea on who the bad actors were .... but they released them anyway. This is why prisoners of war are kept in prison until the war is over (even if the war may last for years) ..... but former Iraqi PM Maliki and his government though otherwise, and the U.S. did not care because they were leaving Iraq by the end of 2011 anyway.

What Does The Islamic State Want?

Control of territory is an essential precondition for the Islamic State’s authority in the eyes of its supporters. This map, adapted from the work of the Institute for the Study of War, shows the territory under the caliphate’s control as of January 15, along with areas it has attacked. Where it holds power, the state collects taxes, regulates prices, operates courts, and administers services ranging from health care and education to telecommunications.

Graeme Wood, The Atlantic: What ISIS Really Wants

The Islamic State is no mere collection of psychopaths. It is a religious group with carefully considered beliefs, among them that it is a key agent of the coming apocalypse. Here’s what that means for its strategy—and for how to stop it.

What is the Islamic State?

Where did it come from, and what are its intentions? The simplicity of these questions can be deceiving, and few Western leaders seem to know the answers. In December, The New York Times published confidential comments by Major General Michael K. Nagata, the Special Operations commander for the United States in the Middle East, admitting that he had hardly begun figuring out the Islamic State’s appeal. “We have not defeated the idea,” he said. “We do not even understand the idea.” In the past year, President Obama has referred to the Islamic State, variously, as “not Islamic” and as al-Qaeda’s “jayvee team,” statements that reflected confusion about the group, and may have contributed to significant strategic errors.

WNU Editor: This analysis looks at the apocalyptic ideology/version of Islam that followers of the Islamic State believe in. There is a lot to digest in this commentary .... and I will be commenting on it later tonight.

Update: As I said .... there is a lot to digest in this post, and I will need some time to formulate my own opinions and observations.But if you have a time .... for those who want to understand what is happening in the Middle East today .... this is a must read.

A New Trend In The Global War Against Radical Islam

New York Times: Islamic State Sprouting Limbs Beyond Its Base

WASHINGTON — The Islamic State is expanding beyond its base in Syria and Iraq to establish militant affiliates in Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt and Libya, American intelligence officials assert, raising the prospect of a new global war on terror.

Intelligence officials estimate that the group’s fighters number 20,000 to 31,500 in Syria and Iraq. There are less formal pledges of support from “probably at least a couple hundred extremists” in countries such as Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and Yemen, according to an American counterterrorism official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential information about the group.

WNU Editor: The New York Times still cannot say the words "Global War Against Radical Islam" .... but at least they are now saying "Islamic State" and not ISIS.

The Islamic State Wants To Conquer Mecca

William Young, Newsweek: ISIS Aims to Occupy Mecca

WNU Editor: In the past year the Islamic State's message to fellow Sunni Muslims has been very clear .... it is they (and they alone) who have the divine mandate to rule the Islamic world. This in turn has attracted thousands of Jihadists who are willing to die for this cause .... resulting in a fanaticism that has propelled the Middle East into a religious sectarian war of the likes that has not been seen for centuries. Will they succeed .... I have my doubts .....but their eyes are on Mecca and Jerusalem .... and this is their ultimate goal .... the conquest and occupation of these two great cities.

Has The Islamic State Lost Its Momentum?

Reuters

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, The Atlantic -- ISIS Is Losing Its Greatest Weapon: Momentum


WNU Editor: It is still far too early to write them off.

The War Against The Islamic State Is Primarily An Ideological Conflict Rather Than An Economic One

Reuters

To Kill The ISIS Monster You Gotta Do More Than Cut Off Its Money -- Charlie Winter, Daily Beast

When you take away the gas smuggling revenues from the so-called Islamic State, it’s likely to get more donations—and take more hostages.

LONDON — It’s now widely recognized that the so-called Islamic State is not only very brutal, it is very rich, with a larger and more sophisticated financial infrastructure than any terrorist organization before it. The self-proclaimed “caliphate” rakes in millions of dollars a month from a range of income streams, including money from donors, money from extortion and kidnapping, and, most importantly, the smuggling of cut-price oil and gas. The daily revenues are estimated at more than $3 million, which makes it easy to buy a certain level of control in the territories where the group, widely known by the English acronym ISIS, holds sway.

As Quilliam’s recent report on “Islamic State: The Changing Face of Modern Jihadism” argues, because of its financial independence ISIS is able to function (almost) like a state—a totalitarian one— coercing political loyalty with the most basic of carrot-and-stick models. Its ability to provide services and subsidize everyday goods gives it a political foundation that many of its subjects see as preferable to the governments of Damascus or Baghdad. Without that financial clout, the ties ISIS has with the population it rules would be sorely tested and its authority could become more precarious.

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My Comment: Money pays the bills, but it is true that the fighters for the Islamic State are primarily motivated by ideological/religious/sectarian reasons rather than getting a paycheck.

The Reason Why The Islamic State Has Embarked On A Reign Of Terror

Syrian soldiers about to be executed by Islamic State fighters

A Horrifying New Report Reveals The Strategy Behind ISIS's Brutality -- Zack Beauchamp, VOX

Scattered reports from inside ISIS-controlled territory have painted an awful picture of life under the militant group's rule. But a brand-new UN report, compiled from interviews with 300 people who have lived or currently are living in ISIS-controlled Syria, gives us a systematic look at the militant group's reign.

And it is horrifying.

This isn't just because the behavior documented is terrible, though it is. It's that the UN report documents a strategy, not just random brutality or religious fanaticism. ISIS's ultraviolence is designed to cement its rule by terrifying the population into submission. And it might be working.

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My Comment: The Islamic State reminds me of the Khmer Rouge and on how they consolidated power in Cambodia. Numbering only 80,000 .... and with most of these "soldiers" being young and fanatical .... the only means that the Khmer Rouge leaders had to control the country was to embark on a reign of terror and horror .... and they were remarkably successful .... until the Vietnamese drove them out of power. Bottom line .... organized terror works .... especially if the population does not believe that anyone on the outside would come to their rescue. In Iraq and Syria the Islamic State is also taking advantage of what is now a sectarian/religious conflict to keep the Sunni population in line .... warning them on the horrors that may happen to them if the Shiite militias should win control.

Has The Islamic State Peaked?

Has ISIS Peaked? Terror Group Suffers Setbacks In Iraq -- Tim Lister, CNN

(CNN) -- Is the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria finally beginning to feel the pressure?  The first signs are emerging that a combination of coalition airstrikes and more assertive Iraqi and Kurdish forces are forcing ISIS to change its behavior and inflicting serious losses of both territory and fighters.

Analysts tell CNN it is too early to say ISIS has "peaked." It controls vast areas of northern and western Iraq, as well as much of northeastern Syria, and exercises draconian authority in areas as far apart as Anbar in western Iraq and Aleppo province in northern Syria. ISIS also continues to pick up endorsements and pledges of allegiance from other jihadist groups, most notably in Libya and Egypt.

But there are signs that ISIS is under stress, especially in Iraq, with its lines of communication and resupply disrupted in some areas, key figures targeted in airstrikes and sources of revenue under threat.

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My Comment: It appears that the Islamic State's offensive has  been stopped .... but it is still far too early to say where this conflict is heading.

Some Hard Truths In The War Against The Islamic State

The Spy Who Told Me: Can We Handle the Truth About the Islamic State? -- John McLaughlin, OZY

It’s been two months to the day since President Barack Obama announced an accelerated attack against the so-called Islamic State. So what are the hard realities we’re dealing with? And, given that U.S. officials say it could take up to a year to train and field a ground force to combat the Islamic State in Syria, where will we stand a year from now?

A number of harsh realities are staring us in the face, each a reminder of the agonizing choices ahead:

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My Comment: A sobering analysis on what lies ahead in the war against the Islamic State. This is a must read.

Has The Islamic State's Miltitary Advances Been Stopped?

(Institute for the Study of War)

A Month Ago, ISIS’s Advance Looked Unstoppable. Now It’s Been Stopped. -- Zack Beauchamp, VOX

Watching the news, you could be forgiven for thinking that ISIS is an unstoppable juggernaut, sweeping Iraq and Syria in an unending, unstoppable, terrible blitzkrieg.

But you'd be wrong. The truth is that ISIS's momentum is stalled: in both Iraq and Syria, the group is being beaten back at key points. There are initial signs — uncertain, sketchy, but hopeful — that the group is hurting more than you may think, and has stalled out in the war it was for so long winning. ISIS isn't close to being destroyed. But they are reeling.

In mid-October, ISIS advanced to within 16 miles of the Baghdad airport. Many observers (and many Iraqis), fearing an ISIS assault on Baghdad itself, understandably panicked. But to Michael Knights, the Lafer Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the ISIS advance meant something else.

"The threat posed to Baghdad this autumn is emerging less because [ISIS] is winning the war in Iraq," he wrote in Politico Magazine, "and more because it might be slowly but steadily losing it."

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My Comment: I would not count them out right now .... their Arab enemies are just as weak as they are, and there is no political will in the West to put combat troops on the ground to finish them off. My prediction still holds .... a stalemate with the Islamic State consolidating it's gains.

A Discussion On Why U.S. Troops Will Be Required To Defeat The Islamic State

Counterinsurgency Expert: Beating ISIS Will Require U.S. Ground Troops In Iraq -- Rick Klein, Olivier Knox, Richard Coolidge, and Jordyn Phelps

Retired Army Lt. Col. John Nagl literally helped to write the book on counterinsurgency field strategy for the Army and Marine Corps during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

But for all the lessons that the U.S. military has learned through the wars of the 21st Century, Nagl said President Obama’s strategy to defeat ISIS in Iraq and Syria without any ground forces won’t work.

“It clearly isn't working,” Nagl told “Top Line” in an interview. “We do have about 1,600 American troops on the ground, but they're staying well back from the front lines. That's a big part of the reason why the Iraqi forces are not able to take on and really defeat the ISIS forces.”

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My Comment: Retired Army Lt. Col. John Nagl's assessment is prob ably correct, but there is no political will in Washington .... especially in the White House .... for such an operation.

The Rise Of The Islamic State Is In Turn Boosting Global Jihad

Experts: Rise of Islamic State Significant Development in Jihadism -- Jela Franceschi, Voice of America

The Islamic State’s rise seems sudden. It caught the U.S. by suprise this summer when it captured large portions of northern Iraq and spread its wings in neighboring Syria. But many analysts contend that the group - which grew out of al-Qaida in Iraq - has been rebuilding for years.

Even before U.S. forces left Iraq in 2011, the Islamic State (also known as ISIS) was forging a professional military force, stoking Sunni unrest, mounting brutal bombing campaigns - and barbaric killings. It boasts of 50,000 fighters in Syria and 30,000 in Iraq while recruiting 6,000 more last month alone.

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My Comment: A sober analysis .... read it all.

A Growing Realization That No One In The Middle East Can Defeat The Islamic State

Youssef Boudlal/Reuters

Obama's Iraq-Syria Dilemma: No Force Now On The Ground Can Beat ISIS -- Jamie Dettmer, Daily Beast

If Washington is counting on the Kurds to defeat the terrorist caliphate with a little support from American drones and warplanes, it had better think again.

Back when the Obama administration was contemplating retaliation against the Syrian government for using chemical weapons, Secretary of State John Kerry sought to assuage worries that America would become ensnared in Syria’s civil war by promising that any reprisals would be “unbelievably small”—a matter of pinprick airstrikes. In the event Russian diplomatic maneuvering let the administration off the hook.

In Iraq today the administration has committed to doing something against the forces of the so-called Islamic State, but the limited military intervention we’ve seen to date lags far behind the bellicose rhetoric of Obama officials since the murder of American journalist James Foley. Once again, we see the same reluctance that was on display about retaliation against Syrian President Bashar al Assad for spreading toxins. Fear of mission creep, fear of putting American boots on the ground, and excessive faith in the wonders of American military technology contribute to a fatal and contradictory combination of excessive caution and excessive confidence.

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My Comment: If there is a concerted international/Middle Eastern effort to wage unrestricted war against the Islamic State .... the chances are (in my opinion) good that they will be defeated. But the problem is that when everyone looks at the costs of such an endeavor ....

.... Counterterrorism expert Brian Fishman says the Islamic State has become a terror army that can only be defeated through a full-scale war with serious fighting in both Iraq and Syria. He argues it “will actually require years, direct military action on both sides of the Iraq/Syria border, tens (if not hundreds) of billions of dollars, and many more than 15,000 troops.”

.... with these costs in mind no one in the West is going to commit themselves to lose that amount of blood and treasure for another Middle Eastern war.

No one.

The Islamic State Is Worse Than Any Other Terrorist Group Including Al Qaeda

Reuters/Stringer

Why ISIL Is Worse Than al-Qaeda—And Any Other Terrorist Group That Came Before -- Bobby Ghosh, Quartz

Now the world has finally turned its attention to the carnage sweeping through northern Iraq, many are struggling to place the perpetrators—the death cult known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, or ISIL—in the context of modern-day terrorism. I’m getting the same questions from friends and fellow journalists: Are these guys the new al-Qaeda? Or are they like the Taliban? Or is this movement more like Hezbollah… Boko Haram… Hamas?

Led by the self-appointed “Caliph” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIL is both generic and sui generis. Its rhetoric sounds familiar, because it is delivered in the language (literally and metaphorically) of most Islamist militant groups. There’s much talk about jihad—the modern, malign interpretation of that word, rather than its spiritual meaning—and the desire to attain “martyrdom.” Some of ISIL’s tactics are familiar, too, like the use of suicide bombings, and snuff videos posted online.

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My Comment: It looks like Osama Bin Laden is also in agreement with this assessment.

What Is The Right Way To Use U.S. Air Power Against the Islamic State?

The Smart Way to Bomb ISIS -- John Allen Gay, National Interest

Obama is reportedly weighing attacks on the Islamic State. What factors should shape his decision?

The Obama administration is reportedly considering airstrikes against the Islamic State after several days of advances by the putative caliphate. Also under consideration is the delivery of humanitarian aid to minority groups that fled as ISIS approached, with thousands reportedly trapped without food or water in rough terrain and scorching heat. France and Turkey may be joining in an American intervention—apparently, the Turks have already been delivering aid.

“Going back into Iraq” will be a tough sell for Obama at any scale. But a confrontation between America and the Islamic State is probably inevitable—if not now, then at some point in the future. ISIS’s gains profoundly destabilized the region, with diplomatic alignments put under pressure, vital infrastructure captured and large refugee flows. Kurdish independence and the broader breakdown of the region’s old colonial borders have both become more likely. The magnetic pull of jihad is growing. Iraq’s internal politics have grown even rougher; externally, Iran and Russia have increased their influence in Baghdad. An effort to contain or push back ISIS, in this light, is certainly worth considering. What factors should shape America’s approach?

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My Comment: How the Taliban in Afghanistan were defeated (right after 9/11) is .... in my opinion .... the best and most effective way to defeat ISIS. Special forces directing air strikes. Alliances with local tribes. Paying off foes to remain neutral. Declaring free-fire zones on certain Iraqi highways to limit ISIS movements in critical battles. There are many tactics and options .... many that I am sure are being developed right now. But the final decision will come from the White House .... and the big decision that they are probably grappling right now is .... how far do they want to become involved in this war.

Update: McCain Calls Obama's 'Pinprick' Iraq Strikes 'Meaningless' and 'Almost Worse Than Nothing' -- Josh Rogin, Daily Beast

Why We Must Worry About The Terrorist Havens That Now Exist In Iraq And Syria

Terror Havens In Syria And Iraq: Five Reasons The West Should Worry -- Paul Cruickshank, CNN

(CNN) -- The Sunni Muslim extremist group ISIS has torn through eastern Syria and northern and western Iraq in recent months, seizing territory for what it says is its new Islamic caliphate and butchering those who stand in their way.

The situation has become especially dire for minority groups. Iraqi Christians are on the run, with ISIS taking over their largest city, Qaraqosh, and giving them an ultimatum: Convert to Islam or die. In addition, thousands of families from the Yazidi minority fled from ISIS and became trapped on a mountain in northern Iraq without food, water or medical care.

U.S. military jets on Friday conducted a strike on ISIS artillery that had been used against Kurdish forces defending Irbil, Pentagon spokesman Rear Adm. John Kirby said on Twitter. The artillery had been used near U.S. personnel, Kirby said.

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My Comment: While these reasons are all valid .... the problem is that the resources on the ground are insufficient to stop the growth and spread of ISIS. When the "strongest military" that is left in Iraq is not able to stop them .... that is when you know that your strategy is failing. To say that this is also a failure of U.S. policy and strategy is an understatement. Everyone knew what was happening before it happened .... but the White House choose a different strategy .... i.e. to stay out of the conflict and to pressure the Baghdad government to reform it's political system. That strategy is now in shambles, and instead we now have ISIS a few steps away from having a permanent presence in the Middle East. And for the minorities who are trapped .... a holocaust that has not been seen in the Middle East since the Armenian genocide a century ago.

The Islamic State’s Bloody Campaign To Exterminate Minorities

The Islamic State’s Bloody Campaign To Exterminate Minorities: ‘Even Genghis Khan Didn’t Do This’ -- Washington Post

In the back of a cavernous hall, standing behind rows of solemn-looking men, an Iraqi politician known for her passion began to shriek. Her name was Vian Dakhil: the lone representative of the Yazidi people in Iraq’s parliament. And she was asking for someone, anyone, to listen. The Islamic State had just expelled thousands of her people from the northern town of Sinjar. Stranded on a barren mountain without food or water, they faced extermination.

Women, she said, were being sold as sexual slaves. Children, she said, were dying. Someone, she said, must take notice.

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My Comment: This ethnic/religious cleansing is just starting .... when the Sunni - Shiite communities start to expel each other .... in terms of numbers and sheer magnitude that is when the real disaster will unfold.

Can The Islamic State Be Stopped?

Will Anyone Stop ISIS? -- Josh Levs, CNN

(CNN) -- If you're following the news about ISIS, which now calls itself the Islamic State, you might think you've mistakenly clicked on a historical story about barbarians from millennia ago.

In a matter of months, the group seized territory in both Iraq and Syria and declared an Islamic caliphate, celebrating its own shocking slaughter along the way.

"I don't see any attention from the rest of the world," a member of the Yazidi minority in Iraq told the New Yorker. "In one day, they killed more than two thousand Yazidi in Sinjar, and the whole world says, 'Save Gaza, save Gaza.'"

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My Comment: If ISIS faced a united opposition .... I doubt that they would be able to survive. But the opposition is in disarray .... and the West, including the U.S., are (at the moment) not interested to get involved in this conflict. As for the news media .... many have been AWOL on this story.