Selasa, 08 November 2011

In the news:

Quakes are prominent in the news once again:

4.7 Magnitude Earthquake Shakes Oklahoma

A 4.7 magnitude earthquake shook Oklahoma again at 8:46 p.m. Monday. This is the third large earthquake that rattled the Sooner State in just three days.


Oklahoma/Tulsa M 4.7 and M 5.6 Earthquakes

Very strong Earthquake: Nicaragua

Strong Quake Hits: Magnitude 6.9 - Northeast of Taiwan

Seismic Monitor

Back to the Epicenter: It is beginning to appear (surprise, surprise) that Israel will have to deal with Iran without any help:

Barak not optimistic about international will to stop Iranian nukes

Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that he is not optimistic that the international community has the will to come together in order to put a stop to Iran's nuclear program, in an interview with Israel Radio Tuesday.

Addressing the IAEA report, the reported contents of which have been leaked to various international newspapers in recent days, Barak said, "we've known these things for years."

"We know more [about Iran] than The Washington Post knows and we know more than the IAEA does," he added.

Israel is expecting the United States to take the lead in pushing the United Nations and other Western countries to impose tougher, new sanctions on Iran following the publication of the incriminating IAEA report.


But the news today indicates otherwise:

Obama flips on new sanctions. leaves Israel, Saudis head to head with Iran

Economic constraints tie US hands against Iran:

US President Barack Obama is backing away from crippling sanctions on Iran's central bank bank and an embargo on its oil trade.

This was decided shortly before the International Atomic Energy Agency was due to confirm Tuesday or Wednesday, Nov. 8-9 that Iran's clandestine military nuclear program had reached the point of no-return, and after Israel intelligence experts found that Iran could build a weapon as soon as it so decided.

Four considerations persuaded the Obama administration to backtrack on new sanctions, thereby letting Tehran prevail in this round of the nuclear controversy:

1. Because it is too late. Even the harshest sanctions would not alter the fact that Iran has arrived at a position wherbey it is capable of building a bomb or warhead any time it chooses.

2. Severe penalties against Iran's central bank and its fuel exports would exacerbate the turmoil on international financial markets.

3. For the first time in American history, Washington has admitted its military capabilities are constrained by economic concerns.

4. Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Tuesday in a radio interview that he was not optimistic about tough sanctions because there was no international consensus to support them.


I recall posting on this topic about a year ago, predicting that the U.S. would sit around pontificating on what to do about Iran until it was too late to do anything. Interesting "strategy", but we have finally arrived at that point.

The Israeli defense minister noted that while it would be preferable in matters as grave as a potential attack on Iran's nuclear sites to work closely with the United States, Israeli is a sovereign country and its government cannot shirk responsibility for defending its security.

If sanctions against Iran fall by the wayside, all other options stay on the table, said the defense minister. Israeli is holding intelligence exchanges with some friends but in the last resort must make its own decisions which he promised would be made responsibly.


And below we see the "bottom-line":

Prime Minster Binyamin Netanyahu no doubt intended to go through the motions of demanding tougher sanctions against Iran after the publication of the IAEA report.

But that option has vanished from the Washington landscape, leaving Israel with a choice between a military strike or bowing to the Obama administration's acceptance of a nuclear-armed Iran and learning to live with this ever-present menace.

The same stark choice confronts Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf.


Sanctions on Iran Fail because of Desire for Money

As Iran moves closer to building a nuclear weapon, sanctions against Tehran have failed because of trade ties and fears of economic chaos.

The Obama administration’s attempts to ‘engage” Ahmadinejad have been a failure, and economic sanctions have proven to be weak, partly because of China and Russia’s vested interests in Iran’s nuclear development and their dependence on oil and gas from Iran. China needs Iranian crude for its growing economy.

However, President Barack Obama and European allies also are partly responsible for not taking stiffer action against Israel, and the reason appears to be fear of economic chaos that might result from actions, such as putting the Central Bank of Iran on its blacklist.


Iran Backs Islamic Jihad's 8,000-Man Army in Gaza

Its estimate of the number of terrorists trained for war against Israelis the first time Islamic Jihad has disclosed how many fighters it has.

"We are proud and honored to say that the Islamic Republic of Iran gives us support and help," Abu Ahmed, the spokesman for Islamic Jihad's al-Quds Brigades told Reuters in a rare interview.


Ahmadinejad warns against attack on Iran

The spike in tension comes ahead of the release this week of a report into Iran’s nuclear drive by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which diplomats say will focus on the Islamic republic’s alleged efforts to put fissile material in a warhead and developing missiles.

“Iran’s capabilities are increasing and it is progressing, and for that reason it has been able to compete in the world. Now Israel and the West, particularly America, fear Iran’s capabilities and role,” Ahmadinejad said in remarks published Monday in Egypt’s Al-Akhbar newspaper.

“Therefore they are trying to gather international support for a military operation to stop [Iran’s] role. The arrogant should know that Iran will not allow them to take any action against it,” he said. Ahmadinejad added Washington wanted to “save the Zionist entity, but it will not be able to do so.”

In response, Russia warned against a military strike on Iran. “It would be a very serious mistake fraught with unpredictable consequences,” said Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.


"Occupy" protestors storm Israeli consulate

The "Occupy Boston" branch of the "Occupy Wall St." social movement in the US stormed the Israeli Consulate in Boston on Friday. It was yet another demonstration of the anti-Israel and anti-Semtitic tendencies that many Jews and Israelis fear forms part of the underlying base of the "Occupy" movement.

Previous anti-Semitic outbursts at "Occupy" events have been brushed off by the media and the activists as the actions of a small minority of "crazies." But the march on the Israeli Consulate in Boston was a sanctioned event appearing in the official schedule on the Occupy Boston website.

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