Joel Rosenberg summarizes the newly formed alliance between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and the implications involved in this arrangement:
War clouds are building again in the epicenter. Talk of an Israeli-Iranian conflict is growing, not just here but among key Arab leaders, as well.
Here’s a quick snapshot of what’s happening:
- Netanyahu says a bad deal between the West and Iran would make a war more likely.
- Nasrallah (head of Hezbollah) said a bad deal could trigger a major regional war.
- U.S.-Israeli relations are fraying.
- Yaakov Amidror, the recently retired Israeli national security advisor, said today there is “no question” Israel has the capability to use military action to neutralize Iran’s nuclear threat and that Netanyahu is prepared to take that action if necessary.
- A growing number of Israeli commentators are saying after so many years and so many discussions and negotiations, time for talk may have run out — it may be time to launch a preemptive strike (similar to the scenario I write about in Damascus Countdown).
- Now we are hearing credible reports that the Saudis are so fearful of an Iranian nuclear arsenal that: 1) they are preparing to buy nuclear warheads from Pakistan; and 2) the Saudis have been building a secret alliance with Israel to take military action against Iran if diplomacy fails.
With regards to a secret Saudi-Israeli alliance, here is what is being reported so far.
- The Mossad is working with Saudi officials on contingency plans for a potential attack on Iran in the event that Tehran’s nuclear program is not sufficiently curbed in the deal that may be concluded between Iran and world powers in Geneva this week, The Sunday Times reported.
- Both Jerusalem and Riyadh have expressed displeasure at the deal being formulated between Iran and the P5+1 group of world powers that they see as doing little to stop Tehran’s progress toward a nuclear weapon.
- According to the Times, Riyadh has already given its consent for Israel to use Saudi airspace for a potential attack on Iran.
- The paper quoted a diplomatic source as saying the Saudis were willing to assist an Israeli attack by cooperating on the use of drones, rescue helicopters and tanker planes.
- “Once the Geneva agreement is signed, the military option will be back on the table. The Saudis are furious and are willing to give Israel all the help it needs,” the Times quoted the source as saying.
- Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said in an interview with French daily Le Figaro on Saturday that there is a “meeting of the minds” between Israel and the “leading states in the Arab world” on the Iran issue – “one of the few cases in memory, if not the first case in modern times.
- “We all think that Iran should not be allowed to have the capacities to make nuclear weapons,” he said. “We all think that a tougher stance should be taken by the international community. We all believe that if Iran were to have nuclear weapons, this could lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, making the Middle East a nuclear tinderbox.”
- Saying that an Iran with nuclear arms would be the most dangerous development for the world since the mid-20th century, and stressing that the “stakes are amazing,” Netanyahu urged the world’s leaders to pay attention “when Israel and the Arabs see eye-to-eye.”
- “We live here,” he said. “We know something about this region. We know a great deal about Iran and its plans. It’s worthwhile to pay attention to what we say.”
American Jewish leaders feel they were misled by the White House in recent contacts during which Obama administration officials urged them to stop pressing for more sanctions on Iran and instead give time for the Geneva negotiations to bear fruit, The Times of Israel was told on Monday.
The US Jewish leaders feel that the administration showed a “lack of trust” in them, a source close to the contacts said.
Obama administration officials did not tell them that they had been secretly negotiating with Iran for the past year, and that the Geneva talks were really “precooked,” The Times of Israel was told, and thus it was an act of bad faith for the administration to ask the Jewish groups to hold off on pressure for more sanctions with the promise that they would meet again in 30-60 days to consider where the negotiations had led.
In fact, the Jewish leaders believe, the administration knew exactly where the negotiations would be heading, since they had secretly negotiated the terms.
Two sources told The Times of Israel they were convinced there was a secret channel of negotiations and were dismayed that the White House had not come clean about it.
Israel was also kept in the dark about the secret channel, and only learned about it from other sources, The Times of Israel was told by the sources, who asked to remain anonymous.
The Channel 10 report on Sunday said the talks were a mere “facade,” because the terms of a deal on Iran’s nuclear program were negotiated in talks between a top adviser to Obama and a leading Iranian nuclear official that have continued in secret for more than a year.
An Israeli television network reported Sunday night that Valerie Jarrett, senior adviser to President Barack Obama, has been holding secret talks with the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, and that the international negotiations underway in Geneva are merely a “facade” covering up a deal whose terms have already been decided.
The report on Israel’s Channel 10 quoted unnamed senior Israeli officials who said that the talks, which have reportedly been underway for a year, have been held in various Persian Gulf states.
Exactly one year ago, the Israeli newspaper Ynet reported that Jarrett was beginning to communicate behind the scenes with representatives of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Israeli government officials are reportedly angry that the Obama administration has reportedly not been keeping Israel abreast of the latest developments regarding talks with Iran over curbing the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.
“…(T)he administration did not keep Israel fully informed on those talks, Channel 10 news reported, but Jerusalem nonetheless has a pretty clear picture of what has been going on in the secret channel,” the Times of Israel reported.
Depite the excitement around the visit of French President Francoise Hollande to discuss, among other subjects, the Iranian nuclear program, and the gratitude in Israel for France’s tough stance on a potential deal with Tehran, some Israeli commentators argue that any optimism should be tempered.
“Hollande split into three” during his visit, writes Israel Hayom’s Boaz Bismuth. “First there was the Israeli Hollande, the one who spoke about Iran as if he were the Israeli prime minister. Yesterday was the Palestinian Hollande, who spoke as if he were Abbas. Today we will have the third Hollande, the salesman who is trying to increase the French economic presence in Israel…The change in American policy in the Middle East and the Iranian threat are causing the French to suddenly dream that for the first time in history… they will be able to be a friend of the Israelis and a friend of the Palestinians.”
His colleague Dan Margalit argues that the situation is not looking good at all for Israel right now. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s upcoming trip to Moscow Wednesday to try to gain some support from Vladimir Putin seems somewhat desperate, he writes in Israel Hayom.
“He is going to Moscow on the principle that no stone can be left unturned in this struggle. He is compromising his honor in light of unseemly comments by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov toward him, and knows that Putin will be not be active in stopping the Iranians. But Russia is trying to recapture the position it lost 41 years ago in Egypt, and in Cairo they are expecting him to stand up to Iran.”
“Even in the US the situation is murky,” Margalit continues. “Obama is trying to enlist Senate heads in favor of a deal with Iran… Even Obama knows that he can’t sign an agreement with the ayatollahs’ regime given the increased demands from Iran.
“There is no doubt,” concludes Margalit, “that Israel is in a compromised position. Even Hollande’s visit didn’t change this fact… But in the situation that has been created by the resumption of talks tomorrow, Netanyahu has no reason to stop the process that he has been leading almost alone. There is a chance it will work. There is nothing to lose if he sticks with it. At least he will have a clear conscience.”
Also see:
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar