Does The Ukraine Military Have The Weapons Needed To Match And Defeat The Pro-Russian Rebels

Ukrainian troops at the scene of a separatist mortar attack near Sloviansk, Ukraine on May 11, 2014. Ukraine Ministry of Defense photo

How Ukraine’s Arsenal Matches Up Against The Russian-Backed Separatists’ -- Robert Beckhusen, Reuters

On Nov. 18, several rockets fired from a separatist Grad launcher slammed into an apartment building in the eastern Ukrainian town of Toshkovka. It was another shelling in what’s become an almost daily event — as both sides in Ukraine’s civil war turn to heavier weaponry to shift the battle in their favor.

But no soldiers were harmed in this shelling. Instead, three civilians died and four others — including two children — were wounded. It was more than four miles behind the front line, which formed after pro-Russian militants threw Ukrainian troops back during a heavy August counteroffensive.

The separatists now control a 200-mile stretch of territory from the Black Sea to the Russian border. This includes the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk, two of the three largest cities in eastern Ukraine. Still, it’s a precarious situation for the militants seeking to create a state-within-a-state.

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My Comment: The short answer is no .... the Ukraine army may have more men, but they definitely do not have the weaponry to overwhelm the rebel army in the east. Another problem for the Ukraine military is that they are operating in a region where many of the locals are openly hostile to Kiev. This is fertile ground for pro-Russian rebels to conduct asymmetrical warfare, and it would not surprise me if the bulk of the casualties for the Ukraine military are now coming from this type of warfare. As for Russian military support to the pro-Russian rebels .... it appears to be limited to basic equipment and supplies, guns, ammo, some tanks and artillery units .... but no heavy weaponry and definitely no air support. Throw in air-support, the dynamics on the ground would then shift immediately .... but so will the international repercussions for Russia if this is the course of action that they end up taking.