Gas And Oil Wars Looming? Israeli Discoveries May Threaten Russia

This is a fascinating article from Israel Today - actually its parts 3 and 4 to a series covering Israel's recent gas and oil discoveries which have been huge, to say the least. So huge, in fact, it will make Israel independent for energy needs for decades to come and will include the ability to export such to Europe. 

That is where the problem arises. Russia has had plans for dominance in terms of exporting gas and oil to to Europe but Israel's recent finds is posing difficulty for Russia. Given the upcoming war of "Gog-MaGog" this development takes additional interest,. 

The Battle Over Israel's Newfound Riches

For background information see parts 1 and 2:

These are the final two parts of a four-part series on Israel's difficulties in developing its new-found natural resources. If you have not done so already, we recommend first reading The Battle over Israel’s Newfound Riches - Part I and The Battle over Israel’s Newfound Riches - Part II
Israeli officials' fears over Russian involvement in the Jewish state's booming natural gas and oil industry are not unfounded. 

Russian natural gas giant Gazprom is facing serious allegations of anti-trust behavior with the European Commission investigating whether the company has been unfairly exploiting its dominant status, harming the free flow of gas to the EU. One example of such misconduct occurred in winter 2008-2009 when Russia cut off all gas supply to Ukraine amid disputes over transit fees and gas costs. The move left several EU member states with no energy in the midst of a bitter cold snap, prompting European leaders to reconsider their dependency on Russia’s energy and look for alternative suppliers. 

Nevertheless, their attempts didn’t bear fruit, as Russia geared up the construction of the so-called Nord Stream, a pipeline that enters directly into Germany, making energy-starving Europe dependent on Gazprom even more.

Now we get to the situation between Russia and Israel:

Now that Jerusalem is mulling over exports that could meet Europe’s demand for the next 18 years, Russia fears loosening its grip over the European market and prefers to cooperate with the Jewish state to block Europe from all directions. 

At the same time, the experts conceded that had Gazprom acquired access to Israel’s fields, it would boost cooperation between the two countries. Maryasis agreed, stressing that “ties between Jerusalem and Moscow are already excellent but they could be taken to a whole new level if such project was implemented”. 

Israel is also said to benefit from such an alliance. As the two countries jointly developing resources off Israel’s shores, belligerents, who have been trying to sabotage Israel’s drilling rigs, will now have to think twice before an assault that could provoke Russia’s ire. Additionally, the project might also help Moscow to diversify its clients by using Israeli gas and redirecting it to Middle Eastern or Asian markets (like the one in Japan, currently facing serious shortages following the Fukushima nuclear disaster). 

Yet, Gazprom’s accession to the Israeli market won’t be easy. “Given the fact that there are elements inside Israel that lobby to block Gazprom’s entrance, Russia will have to come up with solid suggestions that would buy the concession of Jerusalem,” said Zvi Magen, a pundit specializing in Russia’s foreign policy at the Institute of National Security Studies (INSS), charging that Moscow would try to sweet talk Jerusalem into a political alliance. 

The security issue is also on the agenda. No matter how Israel is going to export its energy, be it through a pipeline (going via the hostile Turkey or the economically crippled Greece) or a floating LNG plant (the size of several aircraft carriers), these facilities will be difficult to protect, forcing the Jewish state to spend millions of dollars on various security measures.  

Whether Israel’s gas will ever reach foreign markets and the exact size of the country’s alleged reserves are still very much an open question. Experts warn that discoveries make sense only if they are converted to production capacity, so any potential partner, including Russia, will need to watch the related developments closely.

The point seems relatively simple. Russia wants some of this gas/oil action and certainly doesn't need any threats to their exporting dominance. In fact, they appear to be worried enough to be making overtures to Israel for a possible agreement. 

So what happens if they can't forge an agreement with Israel and Israel's gas/oil exports begin to threaten Russia exports to Europe? 

This scenario certainly gives us some food for thought doesn't it?