Sudanese Soldiers Battle Former Southern Rebels -- Analysis And Review On Africa's First Oil War

From Yahoo News:

KHARTOUM, Sudan - Sudanese soldiers battled former southern rebels Tuesday in the oil-rich region of Abyei despite a five-day cease-fire, U.N. and Sudanese officials said.

Abyei lies just north of the disputed boundary line between north and south Sudan and remains contested despite a 2005 peace accord that ended a 21-year civil war, which left an estimated 2 million people dead.

The United Nations has pulled most of its civilian staff from the town of Abyei, although some 400 U.N. peacekeepers remained.

Many of the south's former rebel leaders come from Abyei and frequently vow to reclaim the area, but the northern government is reluctant to let it go because of its oil fields.

Read more ....

Other News Reports:

Fighting Resumes In Sudan -- The Times (South Africa)
Is Sudan Collapsing Into War at Abyei? -- New York Times
After the JEM's attack, the south could slip away from Sudan -- Political Risk
Deadly fighting rages in Sudan flashpoint -- Pakistan Chronicle
“sounding the alarm on Abyei” -- ngKilloren
Sudan: "bloodbath" in Abeyi; US talks on hold -- WW4 Report
Heavy fighting renewed in southern Sudan -- Arabic Video News In English
China's Involvement In Sudan: Arms And Oil -- Human Rights Watch
Sudan: A history lesson -- Rosemary Thoughts

My Comment: The war between the mainly Arab north of the country and the non-Arab South of the country resulted in decades of war and over 2 million dead. But it is clear that the 2005 truce, which has lasted for almost 3 years, is now in ruins. The perception is that this part of Sudan holds enormous oil reserves, and with oil projected to be worth $150 in the next few years .... the tinder was already there for a match to light it.

My concern is the involvement of outside powers. During its civil war many external forces got involved. But unlike the past war, China is now the Sudanese Government's main supporter and purchaser of its oil. They have threatened to veto U.N. resolutions concerning Darfur, as well as maintaining close military ties with the Sudanese Government. If we see Chinese advisers, equipment, and/or soldiers involved in this fighting, this will be the start of a new geopolitical crisis for this will be the first time China will be directly involved in a conflict that is far away from its borders. On top of the Chinese, Iran is also involved in training the Sudanese Army.

As I had mentioned in my Sunday post "War And Conflicts In Central Africa -- May 18, 2008", this part of Africa is prime for an arm conflict that could engulf almost 300,00,000 people. The Chinese are already there, Iran is there, U.S. naval forces are off the coast of Somalia, Al Qaeda and every imaginable terrorist group is there .... throw in Africa's history of tribal and religious warfare .... the possibility of a Rwanda style genocide or a total regional war can be easily and realistically contemplated.

Archaeological and anthropological evidence indicates that this region of Africa is the birthplace for man. This same evidence .... as well records that go back to ancient times .... reveals that this region has always been under conflict, probably never being able to experience peace.

Will total break war break out in this region? I hope not. With the Chinese dependence on oil and with the Summer Olympics in a few weeks, China will probably try their best to keep this kettle from boiling over. I expect the West to do the same.

Will Africa's tribal history be kept in check .... probably not. But for the moment we are getting a taste of what may happen. We can also now easily observe how all parties are now clearly positioning themselves to take advantage of what may become Africa's first oil war.