Jumat, 30 Mei 2008

RUSSIA CONTINUES ARMS SALES IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Several reports are coming out, including an article in the Jerusalem Post, which reveal a large-scale arms deal between Syria and Russia. This arms sale would include anti-aircraft missiles, MiG fighter jets, surface to air missiles, and an array of additional weapons. This is part of a disturbing trend in the the region, as Russia is also actively supplying Iran and Turkey with arms, in similar agreements. This is taking place while the world watches Russian involvement in constructing Iranian nuclear facilities, which are expected to have the capability to produce nuclear weapons by the end of this year. Of course, this is in the context of Iranian President Ahmadinejad having well-known intentions to destroy Israel.

The most concerning aspect of this development is the close association between Iran, Russia and the terrorist groups Hezbollah and Hamas. Hezbollah and Hamas currently occupy and control Lebanon and Gaza, respectively. The general assumption is that these Russian made arms will end up in the hands of Hamas and Hezbollah, which is not surprising given that many of the missiles currently being launched from Gaza are supplied by Iran and Russia.

As mentioned previously, prophecy watchers are keeping a close eye on developments between Russia and Iran, and their influence in the region. The current alignment (through various treaties and arms deals) of Russia, Iran, Syria, Turkey, along with northern Africa's Islamic States, and the various terrorists groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas and Fatah, looks very much like the geopolitical scenario seen by the prophet Ezekiel approximately 2,500 years ago.

All of this is occuring at a time of Israel experiencing major political turmoil. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is under intense investigation, with mounting pressure to resign and it is becoming apparent that his term will end soon. The question then becomes, will Israel hold new elections, and if so, who will be in power next? Its unclear how Olmert's demise will change things in Israel, but its certianly a significant development - one to follow closely. This political uncertianty may also serve as an opportunity for one of the terrorists groups to attack Israel, as so frequently promised.

As usual, its difficult to see exactly where all of this is going, but in these end times, any significant development in Israel seems to have prophetic implications. Things are happening at a rapid rate in the middle east and its a given that violence will continue to escalate, probably over the course of this summer.

Meanwhile, we'll continue to watch and spread the news of Christ's return.

Kamis, 29 Mei 2008

Why Do We Watch?

Whats the point of watching "signs", as given by ancient prophetic scriptures? Whats the point?
After all, people have mistakenly thought that they were living in the last days before - why would we want to make that same mistake?

There are multiple reasons for watching. One could argue that prophecy reveals the presence of God - that through prophetic fulfillment, one can make the case for God's very existance, as there is no other explanation for hundreds of prophetic scriptures being fulfilled in a manner exactly described in the bible. Only a sovereign God could know the future. In fact, no other religion can claim such literal, specific fulfillment of prophecy, as we have seen throughout bible history. Additionally, prophecy represents approximately 30% of the bible. Ignoring prophecy leaves a significant void in our understanding of God's word.

But there is a better reason for reading and understanding prophecy. It is important to Jesus. Very important. Jesus instructed us to watch for the signs of His coming over and over and over again. A quick glance at His last discourse, known as the Olivet Discourse, reveals no less than TEN warnings to watch for, and know the signs preceeding His coming:

Luke 21:36
Mark 13:33
Mark 13:35
Mark 13:37
Matthew 24:42
Matthew 25:13
Luke 21:28
Luke 21:31
Mark 13:29
Matthew 24:33

Isn't that enough? Don't we want to be obedient to Jesus?

I find it interesting that many folks express a desire to follow Jesus' commands, yet they ignore one of His most important commands, and that is to watch for His return, and the various signs that indicate His return is soon. In fact, we know from Matthew 24 that one generation of people living on the planet will see ALL signs given for His return. He urged us to know the signs, and understand the "season" of His return.

So what if we're all wrong? What if, for some reason, we're not in the season just before Christ's return?

All I can say is - I'd rather be wrong in making efforts to obey Christ's commands (to watch), rather than being wrong by ignoring His commands. In other words, I'd far rather face Jesus, having attempted to watch for the signs, and having been wrong, as contrasted with actually BEING in that last generation, and ignoring the signs. Plus, there is the added benefit of watching the signs and having such bible study bring us closer to Christ. Its hard to find a prophecy "watcher" who isn't coming closer and closer to Christ, as we await His return. Its hard to be lukewarm when you feel that Jesus' return is very near. I repeat: Its hard to be lukewarm when you feel that Jesus' return is very near.

However, the evidence is overwhelming that we're in that season; that we're actually living in the last generation that Jesus described so vividly.

Just as we watched for a loved one to return from a long trip, we watch for Jesus to return. It shows our deep love for Him, and our deep desire to be with Him. Lets not make the mistake made 2,000 years ago, when Jesus walked on this earth. The signs of Christ's first coming were largely ignored; something Jesus addressed following the resurrection. As Jesus appeared to the apostles, He reminded them of why they didn't understand the events which had just taken place, three days earlier:

"He said to them, 'This is what I told you while I was still with you: Everything must be fulfilled that is written about me in the Law of Moses, the Prophets and the Psalms'. Then he opened their minds so they could understand the Scriptures". Jesus went through all of the prophecies about Himself on the last remaining days that He had on earth.

The bottom line: If its important to Jesus, it should be important to us. Period. So lets keep watching.

Maranatha!

Hezbollah Gains Control of Lebanon

The terrorist group Hezbollah has taken control of Lebanon, following a bloody internal conflict over the last few weeks. This is significant for a number of reasons. Now Hezbollah can control the northern border with Israel, without obstruction. Hezbollah has also been re-arming themselves with a variety of missiles, acquired from Syria and Iran for the last two years. Two years ago, we watched a one month battle take place between Israel and Hezbollah. Despite the U.N.'s Security Council resolution that Hezbollah disarm, Lebanon's new government have now informed the world that they have no intention of disarming http://news.yahpp.com/s/ap/20080526/ap_on_re_mi_ea/lebanon. Syria and Iran, both of whom have stated their intentions for the destruction of Israel on numerous occasions, have supplied Hezbollah with thousands of missiles, all intended to reach Israel in the next conflict.

The prophets Zechariah and Ezekiel predicted these events nearly 2,500 years ago. According to Zechariah, "...all the nations of the earth are gathered against her". We also know from Ezekiel 38-39 that a massive invasion of Israel will take place, as led by Russia "from the far north" and Iran (aka "Persia"). We watch these events in the middle-east with great interest, as they are stated to take place "in the latter days", which is old testament code for the time just preceeding the coming of Christ. We also watch these events because God will reveal Himself during this epic war: "I will make known my holy name among my people Israel, I will no longer let my holy name be profaned, and the nations will know that I the Lord am the Holy One in Israel" (Ezekiel 39:7), as he destroys the invading force, presumably in a supernatural manner. Ezekiel 39 gives us great detail for these events.

It seems hard to believe, as we haven't seen God directly intervene on this earth, in such a dramatic manner, since the time of Christ. However, for those of us who have doubts, God left us with this word, as spoken through the prophet Ezekiel, "It is coming! It will surely take place, declares the Sovereign Lord. This is the day I have spoken of" (Ezekiel 39:8). That scripture removes any doubt - this invasion will take place, and it appears to be shaping up exactly as described throughout these two chapters in Ezekiel's prophecies.

Israel is preparing for another conflict this summer. Will the next conflict evolve into the epic battle described by Ezekiel? No one can know for sure, but with every development in the middle-east, things seem to be moving rapidly in that direction. We watch these events in the middle east because watching prophecy unfold reminds us of the exact nature of prophecy fulfillment, and that tells us something very important: God knows all, and reveals His presence through prophecy.

After all, God has informed us that HE, and HE ALONE will conclude this war and He will do so for one reason:

"I will display my glory among the nations" (Ezekiel 39:21)

So we'll continue to be obedient to Jesus' command to watch these signs, as we prepare for His coming. At the same time, we all must remember to pray for the Nation of Israel as they face their enemies, all of whom are arming for the next invasion. We can also rest assured - God is in control and He will make this abundantly clear very soon. Keep watching!

Senin, 26 Mei 2008

Ruang Refleksi: Bayang-Bayang Merek Lulusan Luar Negeri

Artikel berikut merupakan tulisan penulis yang dimuat dalam rubrik Ruang Tamu Majalah Arus Kampus Edisi IV – Rabi’ul Akhir 1429 dengan fokus "Imunisasi Akademik". Arus Kampus merupakan media independen gerakan mahasiswa Indonesia di Cairo dengan tujuan meningkatkan wawasan dan jaringan peran. Penulis mengucapkan terima kasih kepada Dewan Redaksi yang telah mengundang dan memberikan kepercayaan kepada Penulis untuk sedikit menggoreskan penanya dan sedikit berbagi pengalaman dengan kawan-kawan Mahasiswa di Mesir.

Semoga tulisan ini dapat juga dijadikan Ruang Refleksi bagi seluruh pelajar dan mahasiswa Indonesia dimanapun berada.

Salam Hormat,
Pan Mohamad Faiz


BAYANG-BAYANG MEREK LULUSAN LUAR NEGERI

Sebuah Refleksi oleh Pan Mohamad Faiz*
Ketua Umum DP PPI-India 2007/2008

“Berangkat saja, kesempatan emas ini belum tentu datang dua kali. Untuk apa tunggu-tunggu waktu lagi... ”, jawab salah seorang Profesor saya dalam merespon kebimbangan diri ini ketika saya menerima tawaran untuk melanjutkan pendidikan di Negeri Gandhi, India.

Maklum saja, pada saat itu - dan besar kemungkinan masih terjadi hingga saat ini - atmosfer yang terbangun hampir pada diri setiap pelajar dan mahasiswa Indonesia yang ingin melanjutkan pendidikan di luar negeri terus berkiblat pada negara-negara barat, jika tidak Amerika, Inggris, Eropa, atau Australia.

Pengalaman ini mungkin bukan hanya terjadi pada diri saya sendiri, tetapi bisa jadi menghinggapi sebagian besar kawan-kawan pelajar Indonesia lainnya yang akan atau sedang menempuh pendidikan di negara-negara berkembang dunia. Raut penyesalan atau setidaknya rasa kurang percaya diri, seringkali terpancar jelas apabila saya tengah melakukan perbincangan bersama kawan-kawan mahasiswa Indonesia di India ataupun negara-negara berkembang lainnya.

Padahal, ketika kita menghadiri beberapa Konferensi Internasional yang diperuntukan khusus bagi Pelajar Indonesia di luar negeri, mereka yang hadir dari negara-negara berkembang dalam kenyataannya dapat membuktikan kemampuannya setara dengan mereka yang berasal dari negara maju lainnya.

Salah satu alasan utama yang kerap dijadikan sebagai “kambing hitam” terhadap situasi ini yaitu persoalan “brand” atau merek. Bahkan hingga saat ini, masih saja sebagian besar dari kita sendiri yang sebenarnya telah diberikan kesempatan menempuh pendidikan di luar negeri beranggapan bahwa negara yang dihuninya kini tidak mampu menciptakan lulusan yang berdaya saing dan berdaya jual tinggi.

Tidak bisa dipungkiri, hingga saat ini Indonesia memang masih terjangkit dengan apa yang disebut “branding syndrome”. Mulai dari berbagai macam produk pangan, sandang, dan papan, bahkan hingga memasuki ranah produksi lulusan luar negerinya, semuanya kalau bisa dikaitkan dan dimonopoli dengan merek yang terkesan kebarat-baratan.

Oleh karenanya, bagi kita yang sedang belajar di luar negeri, khususnya di India dan Mesir, sudah sepatutnya juga mengangkat derajat dan martabat kita bersama sekaligus membuktikannya bahwa pendidikan bukan sekedar ditentukan dari sebuah balutan merek, tetapi unsur kualitas yang harus lebih diutamakan.

Dalam membangun kualitas pribadi maupun bersama, tentunya komitmen dan tekad keseriusan dalam belajar harus sudah benar-benar bulat. Jika tidak, hasil yang diperoleh tentunya akan nihil. Oleh sebab itu, perjuangan kita pun harus menjadi dua kali lebih keras, yaitu pertama, membentuk pribadi yang unggul baik di bidang akademik maupun non-akademik dalam kaitannya untuk meningkatkan daya saing; dan kedua, memperkuat jaringan dan kerjasama antar sesama baik di dalam negeri maupun luar negeri, guna meningkatkan daya jual.

Kehadiran dan pesatnya perkembangan ICT (Information Communication and Techonology), tentunya lebih memudahkan kita mencapai kedua hal tersebut di atas. Sebab, sebagaimana Thomas L. Friedman katakan bahwa saat ini “dunia itu menjadi datar”. Artinya, berbagai informasi dan ilmu pengetahuan yang berada di belahan dunia lain pun sebenarnya kini dengan sangat mudah dapat kita miliki juga.

Namun kini pertanyaannya adalah telah sejauh manakah kita memanfaatkan kesempatan belajar di luar negeri ini sekaligus mempersiapkan diri untuk bersaing sehat dengan saudara-saudara sebangsa ataupun lain bangsa dari seluruh penjuru dunia? Jangan-jangan, sudah kita tidak menyadari problematika yang tengah menanti setelah lulus, masih saja kita berasyik-masyuk melakukan hal-hal yang kurang begitu penting di luar negeri ini dengan mengindahkan tujuan utama kita, yaitu belajar guna memperoleh ilmu pengetahuan dan pengalaman internasional yang seluas-luasnya.

Teringat nasihat penutup dari sang Profesor yang hingga saat ini terus melintas di benak saya dan sungguh pun hal tersebut telah menjadi inspirasi serta obor motivasi selama menempuh pendidikan di India. “... Toh, dari negara luar manapun anda lulus, pada akhirnya kualitas kamu sendirilah yang akan lebih menentukan, apakah kamu layak diterima dan diperhitungkan oleh masyarakat Indonesia atau tidak. Bukan sekedar asal negaranya. Paham?”, jelas sang Profesor lulusan Indonesia murni (S1-S3) yang kini menjabat sebagai Ketua salah satu Lembaga Negara RI.

Wallahu ’alam Bishawab...

* Penulis adalah Mahasiswa Pascasarjana Ilmu Hukum pada Faculty of Law, University of Delhi. Peraih penghargaan “The Best Oralist Presentation (Lecture)” dalam Indonesian Students Scientific Meeting 2008 di Belanda [update]. Penulis dapat dihubungi melalui http://panmohamadfaiz.com.

Kamis, 22 Mei 2008

War News, Blogs, Opinions, And Wire Service Roundup -- May 22, 2008

WAR/TERRORISM NEWS SUMMARIES AROUND THE WORLD
United States Central Command
Global Security Briefs -- In Homeland Security
Complete Roundup Of World Trouble Spots -- Small Wars Journal
International, War, and Terrorism Headlines -- Rantburg
Morning Brief -- Foreign Policy
Global Incident Map
Spotlight on Military News and International Affairs -- Canadian Perspective
Summary Of Wars & Conflicts: Right Hand Side Of Page -- Counter Terrorism Blog
Global Security News Roundup -- Global Security.org
Latest News -- Strategy Page
Institute For War And Peace Reporting
Intelligence News Roundup -- Intelligence Online
Analysis And Commentaries -- International Relations And Security Network
Alertnet From Reuters -- Use Their Search Filter
Emerging Threats -- United Press International
International Forecasting And News -- Stratfor

IRAQ
Iraq News -- E I N News
Conflict In Iraq -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
War In Iraq -- MSNBC
Iraq News Online -- Times Online
Iraq Weekly Status Report -- U.S. State Department
Iraq Updates
Iraq Coalition Casualty Count

AFGHANISTAN
Afghanistan -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Afghanistan Update: April 1-30, 2008 -- Center For Defense Information
Operations In Afghanistan -- U.K. Ministry Of Defense

MIDDLE EAST
Mideast Conflicts -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Middle East Coverage -- Memri

SECURITY AND TERRORISM
Security -- MSNBC
Terrorism -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Terrorism -- MSNBC
National Terror Alert Response Center

U.S. MILITARY NEWS
U.S. Department Of Defense News
News in The Military -- Military News
Stars And Stripes
U.S. Armed Forces News -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Index Of Military Blogs: Stories Updated Daily -- Military.com
Milblogging: Stories Updated Daily -- Index Of Military Blogs
Directory Of Intelligence Sites -- Strategic IntelligenceComplete

Rabu, 21 Mei 2008

Last Post For Tonight

Iraq War News Updates -- May 21, 2008

Summary Of Iraq War News
Iraqi Troops Take Charge of Sadr City in Swift Push -- New York Times
Iraqi troops test truce in cleric stronghold -- Reuters
Iraqi Army presses into Sadr City -- Long War Journal
Has Maliki Conquered Sadr City? -- Time Magazine
Operation in Sadr City Is an Iraqi Success, So Far -- New York Times
US says its troops kill 11 militants in Baghdad -- Breitbart
Cleansing Mosul Of al-Qaeda -- Strata-Sphere
Thousands of former Army personnel to return to service in Mosul -- Iraq Updates
Tariq Aziz stays defiant in face of trial for his life -- Times Online
Sadr Is Finished -- Belmont Club
White House Challenges NBC News to Explain Whether Iraq Is in 'Civil War' -- FOX News
Success in Iraq: A Media Blackout -- New York Post
What Happened In Basra When The Militants Were in Control -- CNN
Now Come The Horror Stories Of Mahdi Army Atrocities -- Strata-Sphere
U.S. Deploys a Purpose-Driven Distinction -- Washington Post
Iraqi forces to fully control security by year-end -- Kuwait News Agency

My Comment: The success of the Iraqi Army in both Basra and Sadr City are major accomplishments. This was not expected ..... at least if you read the main stream media. The true test will be to maintain control and to start to rebuild these areas of Iraq. The goal will now expand from security to providing jobs and the prospect of hope to its citizens. Terrorism and car bomb attacks, vendettas and revenge killings, these acts will still continue .... but these is now a small glimmer of hope.

I am now going to make a prediction ...... with its oil wealth, the assistance of the U.S., and a people determined not to fall sway to dictatorship or religious extremism .... I give the people of Iraq a good chance to come out of this better than where they have been for the past few decades.

Peace in Lebanon?

Summary Of News Reports On Lebanon
Rival Lebanese leaders forge deal to end conflict -- Reuters
Lebanon's feuding factions reach agreement -- Yahoo News
Lebanon Agreement Buoys Hizballah -- Time Magazine
Hizbollah's Lebanon veto power boosts Iran's Middle East influence -- The Telegraph
Rival Lebanese leaders agree deal -- The Independent
Lebanese rivals agree to end stand-off -- Guardian
Lebanon agreement shifts power to Hezbollah -- International Herald Tribune
Hezb'allah Takes Control in Lebanon -- American Thinker
Deal in Lebanon Adds to Hezbollah's Political Sway -- New York Sun
Hezbollah Wins in Lebanon - Is This the "Grand Bargain" in Action? -- Counter Terrorism Blog
Lebanon: National dialogue in Doha -- Global Voices

My Comment: Hezbollah has won this battle, but they are now positioned to lose the war. The Sunni community (in particularly the religious extremists) in the Middle East are not going to accept this status quo. This agreement was done to only buy time to position themselves to succeed in the next war/battle.

Peace Talks Between Israel And Syria

From Yahoo News:

JERUSALEM - Israel and Syria on Wednesday said they were holding indirect peace talks through Turkish mediators — the first official confirmation of contacts between the longtime enemies.

In statements issued minutes apart, the two governments said they "have declared their intent to conduct these talks in good faith and with an open mind," with a goal of reaching "a comprehensive peace."

Read more ....

Other News Sources:
Israel and Syria negotiate as Turkey mediates -- International Herald Tribune
Israel holding indirect talks with Syria -- The Independent
Rivals Israel, Syria confirm holding peace talks -- MSNBC
Syria and Israel officially confirm peace talks -- Guardian
Israel Holding Peace Talks with Syria -- Time Magazine
Facts about the Golan Heights -- Yahoo News
Goodbye to the Golan? -- Commentary From the Western Standard
Olmert warns of Syria concessions -- BBC News

My Comment: This is going no where. Olmert is deeply unpopular in Israel, and is one step away from being indicted.

Pakistan War News Updates -- May 21, 2008

Summary Of News Reports On Pakistan
US urges Pakistan to nab Taliban chief, in test of anti-terror zeal -- Yahoo News
Pakistan signs peace deal with pro-Taliban militants -- Yahoo News
Pakistan in deal with militants -- BBC News
US objects to talks for peace deal with militants -- Dawn Internet
Negroponte expresses US concerns over FATA peace deals -- Daily Times
Pakistani government inks peace deal with Swat Taliban -- Long War Journal
Pakistani authorities, militants agree peace deal for insurgency-torn valley -- International Herald Tribune
Army to remain in Swat, Tribal Areas, says Rehman Malik -- Daily Times
Beyond the Khyber Pass -- Belmont Club
Pakistan signs deal with Taliban militants -- The Guardian
Pakistan signs peace pact with militants in Swat -- Reuters
Where al Qaeda and the Taliban Hide Out -- U.S. News And World Report
Military: Extremists kill policeman in Pakistan's restive northwest -- International Herald Tribune
US law experts ‘concerned over possible release of terrorists’ -- Daily Times
Top militant leaders threaten to wage a "war in Pakistan" if government softens its stand in talks with India -- RTT News

My Comment: Since the elections early this year, Pakistan has expedited making peace agreements with the tribal areas that border Afghanistan. Every time a peace agreement has been signed, conflict in Afghanistan has increased. I expect the same again now that the militants in the Swat region of Pakistan can focus their attention elsewhere.

Terrorism News Updates -- May 21, 2008

Summary Of News Reports on Terrorism Incidents
ETA Leader Arrested In Police Raid -- Times Online
Reputed Basque ETA leader, others arrested -- MSNBC
Top ETA leader is seized in France -- International Herald Tribune
Boy, 12, Beheads Man In Al Qaeda Video -- CBS News
Beijing Olympics nuclear 'dirty bomb' fears -- The Telegraph
Terror reporter fights notes demand -- The Guardian
Pair held for planning sabotage at Swedish nuclear plant: police -- Yahoo News
Palestinians cool to Osama bin Laden -- MSNBC
‘Attack on US likely from Pakistan-based Qaeda’ -- Daily Times
Govt's proposed terrorism database slammed by industry -- Computer World U.K.

Violence In South Africa -- May 21, 2008

Summary Of News Reports
South Africa xenophobia attacks death toll at 42: police -- Reuters
South Africa violence spreads, army deployment mulled -- Yahoo News
South African Attacks Spreading -- CBS News
South Africa violence spreads to Durban -- The Telegraph
Anti-Immigrant Terror in South Africa -- Time Magazine
Mbeki is to blame for xenophobic attacks, says watchdog -- The Independnet
Nigeria, South Africa officials discuss xenophobic attacks -- Yahoo News
Mbeki: Army to help end South Africa violence -- Reuters
Mbeki deploys army to stop killings -- CNN
SA leader orders army to deploy -- BBC
South African troops called in to quell violence -- MSNBC
South Africa riots: ‘I was paid to kill foreigners’ -- This Day
Black-on-Black War in Johannesburg -- Pajamas media
Commentary: South Africa's shame -- The Guardian

My Comment: If your gets the flu (Zimbabwe), expect to get the flu also. The ANC has been ruling South Africa since the nineties. Even with a boom in its resource sector, it still cannot meet the needs of its poorest citizens. Throw in the incredible spread of AIDS in the country, the crime, and tribal tensions ..... always tribal tensions in Africa .... you then the environment in which people just explode.

The military will be controlling the situation in the next few days, but the damage and harm has already been done. And this is the country that will be hosting the World Cup in 2010?

Israel: Russia May Be Selling Syria Arms

From The Jerusalem Post:

Fearing that Damascus is acquiring advanced military platforms, Israel is closely following meetings being held in Moscow this week between a high-level Syrian military delegation and Russian Defense Ministry officials.

Senior government officials in Jerusalem said they have been aware for several days of the Syrians' upcoming visit to the Russian capital but that it was not yet clear which military platforms Damascus was requesting.

Read more ....

My Comment: Expect Israel to start requesting advanced weapon systems from the U.S. soon. In previous posts I have outlined my concerns on the possibility that a new arms race in the Middle East is starting to take off, with the pursuit of nuclear weapon systems being the priority. I forgot that conventional weapons should also be included in this mix.

With hundreds of billions of dollars now flowing into the Middle East from high oil prices, it should not be a surprise to see a good chunk of this money going back into purchasing weapons.

China A Growing Threat In Space And Cyberspace, U.S. Military Says

From The International Herald Tribune:

WASHINGTON: The U.S. military said that China poses a growing threat to the United States and others in space and cyberspace.

China is "aggressively" honing its ability to shoot down satellites, along with other space and counter-space capabilities, Brigadier General Jeffrey Horne of the U.S. Strategic Command said Tuesday.

Such know-how has major implications for Beijing's potential to curb access to the Taiwan Strait "and well beyond," he told the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a congressionally created advisory group.

Read more ....

Other News Sources:
U.S. military cites growing China space, cyber threat -- Science News Review
US military cites growing China space,cyber threat -- Sinolinx
Oops, They Goofed (Explaining Away the PRC ASAT Test) -- In From The Cold

My Comment: I have been going back and forth from China since the eighties. From my first trip there, it was drilled into my head that the goal of the Chinese is to be like us. For the uninformed, this would mean our standard of living, our culture, our diet, our cars, our technology, our fashions, and ..... last not but least ..... our international standing, influence, and military might.

I learned this all over 20 years ago, and nothing has changed. They are still doing what they told me they were going to do. A free press, democratic institutions, tolerance of religion and beliefs .... these are never mentioned. Even today .... the goal of China's youth is the same as their old leaders .... it is China's destiny to be the world's super power.

The space race and militarization of space is just one of their many goals.

Must-Watch Video: Inside the Satellite Shoot-Down

Hat tip to the Danger Room. A video clip on the success of satellite shoot-down a few months ago.


Report: Child Soldiers Decreasing

From Time Magzine:

(UNITED NATIONS) — The number of conflicts in which child soldiers were involved dropped sharply from 27 in 2004 to 17 at the end of last year, according to a report by the Coalition to Stop the Use of Child Soldiers.

Despite the decline, the report said tens of thousands of children remain in the ranks of militias and other armed groups in at least 24 countries. It accused Burma of being the most persistent offender.

The report, released Tuesday, also said the number of governments that use children to fight fell only slightly from 10 in 2001-2004 to nine in 2004-2007.

Read more ....

Other News Reports:
For Tens Of Thousands Of Child Soldiers, A Short And Brutal Life -- Common Dreams
Conflicts using child soldiers drops -- Gulf News
Burma Continues to Recruit Child Soldiers -- Abitsu
Child soldier use persists despite global efforts: report -- National Post

Japan To Allow Military Use Of Space

From the Guardian:

Japan's estrangement from its postwar pacifism continued today with the enactment of a law ending its 40-year ban on the military use of space.

The law signals Tokyo's determination to expand its military capability amid concern over China's ballooning defence budget and North Korea's development of ballistic and nuclear missiles.

The move will be welcomed by the US, whose ambassador in Tokyo, Thomas Schieffer, called on Japan to end its self-imposed cap on defence spending of less than 1% of GDP.

Read more ....

Other News Sources:
Japan approves new military space policy -- Space Politics
Japan's Diet approves law on space use -- Eview week
Diet OKs bill allowing space programs for national security -- Mainichi Daily News

My Comment: This is going to excite Japan's neighbours. But what Japan is doing is actually signaling to China that if it continues to increase its military spending, Japan will follow suit.

Another arms race in the works?

22 Killed In Sudan Oil Flashpoint, Talks Delayed

From Yahoo News:

KHARTOUM (AFP) - UN-chaired talks to end fighting in Sudan's flashpoint oil area of Abyei that has threatened a three-year peace process were delayed on Wednesday, a day after 22 soldiers were killed.

Heavy fighting on Tuesday prompted UN chief Ban Ki-moon to call for a truce and Washington to announce it was seeking ways to help end what was the second bout of clashes in less than a week in the mixed ethnic area.

Brigadier General Muntasir Sabier, commander of government troops in Abyei, told AFP by telephone that 22 of his soldiers were killed and 45 wounded on Tuesday, but that "the situation today is very quiet."


Read more ....

Previous Post: Sudanese Soldiers Battle Former Southern Rebels -- Analysis And Review On Africa's First Oil War

Beijing Olympics Nuclear 'Dirty Bomb' Fears

From The Telegraph:

The Beijing Olympics could be threatened by terrorists who are trying to obtain nuclear materials in the run-up to the games, the United Nations nuclear watchdog warned today.

Terrorists may use so-called “dirty bombs” to disperse radioactive materials at the event, the International Atomic Energy Authority said as it staged its biggest ever security training exercise in the Chinese capital.

The watchdog told the BBC that the same threats will exist for the London Games in 2012 when a massive security operation will be put in place.

Read More ....

Other News Sources:
Dirty Bomb Warning For Olympics -- National Terror Alert
'Dirty bomb' threat to Beijing Olympics -- Newswatch

My Comment: When we think of the next 9-11 happening, we always think it would happen in the West. But when one looks at where todays terrorism incidents occur, the map is different. A dirty bomb exploding in China, Russia, Japan, India or Pakistan, the oil fields of Saudi Arabia or Iraq, will have an impact equal to if not greater when compared to having such an event here.

1948: A History Of The First Arab-Israeli War By Benny Morris -- A Book Review And Links To Other Books


From The Times Online:

Between 1945 and 1948, the British government deployed 100,000 troops in a hopeless struggle to arbitrate between Arab residents and Jewish settlers in Palestine, under the terms of a League of Nations mandate. The commitment cost Britain, which was broke, £200m. In 1947, 60 British soldiers died there and 189 were wounded, victims, mostly, of Jewish terrorism. The following year, 114 were killed and 230 wounded.

Britain was reluctant to support the Zionist campaign for statehood, not least because of the damage such an outcome would inflict upon its standing in the Arab Middle East. But the burden of half-hearted refereeing was intolerable. When the Soviet Union amazed everyone by joining America to support the establishment of a Jewish state, the British threw up their hands. They agreed to surrender their mandate on May 15, 1948.

Read more ....

Additional books on the Israeli / Arab conflict (during this period) can be freely downloaded from Bookyards. They are the following:

Arab And Israeli Conflict From 1951 To 1955 by E. H. Hutchison
Arab World Past Present And Future by Nejla Izzeddin
Arabs And The West by Clare Hollingworth
Backdrop To Tragedy The Struggle For Palestine by William R. Polk
Background Of The Middle East 1952 by Ernest Jack
Bridgehead The Drama Of Israel 1957 by J. Franke
Early Israel And The Surrounding Nations by Archibald Sayce
First Ten Years A Diplomatic History Of Israel by Walter Eytan
Israel The Establishment Of A State by Harry Sacher
Middle East In Crisis 1959 by Carol A. Fisher

Christians School Bombed In Gaza -- No Reports From the Mainstream Media

From the J6D Newsblog:

A building in Gaza with an Internet cafe that reportedly was bombed is owned by a Palestinian Christian, WND has learned.

The media widely reported the target of Sunday’s bombing as perceived symbols of Western influence. A search of English-language articles on the attack yielded no results reporting the target was Christian.

The bombing follows scores of other anti-Christian attacks in the Gaza Strip – including one last Friday that targeted a Christian school – since the Hamas terror group was elected to power in 2006.

Read more ....

More News Sources:
Explosion At Gaza Christian School -- Maverick News Media
Gaza - Christians attacked, again -- World Divided

My Comment: No news coverage from any of the large news media organizations. I found out about it while browsing Middle East blogs. You know that if this was a Muslim school, we will all be hearing about it.

Hamas And Its Rockets

From Strategy Page:

Israel knows that Hamas has been stockpiling an arsenal of rockets in Gaza, and may be bringing in some with a range of up to 40 kilometers. Israeli intelligence officials believe Hamas currently has, in Gaza, several hundred factory made BM-21 rockets, each with a range of 20 kilometers. They also have some shorter range (six kilometers) B-12 rockets. These are not smuggled in much, because the locally made Kassam II has about the same range. However, the B-12 is more reliable (more reliable trajectory and fuze, so more are likely to land where aimed and explode.)

Read more ....

My Comment: Hamas is clearly positioning themselves for the next fight against Israel. If Hamas starts to smuggle shape charges for their IEDs, an escalation in this conflict will occur.

War News, Blogs, Opinions, And Wire Service Roundup -- May 21, 2008


WAR/TERRORISM NEWS SUMMARIES AROUND THE WORLD
United States Central Command
Global Security Briefs -- In Homeland Security
Morning Brief -- Foreign Policy
Global Incident Map
Spotlight on Military News and International Affairs -- Canadian Perspective
Summary Of Wars & Conflicts: Right Hand Side Of Page -- Counter Terrorism Blog
Global Security News Roundup -- Global Security.org
Latest News -- Strategy Page
Institute For War And Peace Reporting
Intelligence News Roundup -- Intelligence Online
Analysis And Commentaries -- International Relations And Security Network
Alertnet From Reuters -- Use Their Search Filter
Emerging Threats -- United Press International
International Forecasting And News -- Stratfor

IRAQ
Iraq News -- E I N News
Conflict In Iraq -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
War In Iraq -- MSNBC
Iraq News Online -- Times Online
Iraq Weekly Status Report -- U.S. State Department
Iraq Updates
Iraq Coalition Casualty Count

AFGHANISTAN
Afghanistan -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Afghanistan Update: April 1-30, 2008 -- Center For Defense Information
Operations In Afghanistan -- U.K. Ministry Of Defense

MIDDLE EAST
Mideast Conflicts -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Middle East Coverage -- Memri

SECURITY AND TERRORISM
Security -- MSNBC
Terrorism -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Terrorism -- MSNBC
National Terror Alert Response Center

U.S. MILITARY NEWS
U.S. Department Of Defense News
News in The Military -- Military News
Stars And Stripes
U.S. Armed Forces News -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Index Of Military Blogs: Stories Updated Daily -- Military.com
Milblogging: Stories Updated Daily -- Index Of Military Blogs
Directory Of Intelligence Sites -- Strategic Intelligence

Selasa, 20 Mei 2008

Tribute Song 10,000 Miles Away -- Final Post For Tonight

Sudanese Soldiers Battle Former Southern Rebels -- Analysis And Review On Africa's First Oil War

From Yahoo News:

KHARTOUM, Sudan - Sudanese soldiers battled former southern rebels Tuesday in the oil-rich region of Abyei despite a five-day cease-fire, U.N. and Sudanese officials said.

Abyei lies just north of the disputed boundary line between north and south Sudan and remains contested despite a 2005 peace accord that ended a 21-year civil war, which left an estimated 2 million people dead.

The United Nations has pulled most of its civilian staff from the town of Abyei, although some 400 U.N. peacekeepers remained.

Many of the south's former rebel leaders come from Abyei and frequently vow to reclaim the area, but the northern government is reluctant to let it go because of its oil fields.

Read more ....

Other News Reports:

Fighting Resumes In Sudan -- The Times (South Africa)
Is Sudan Collapsing Into War at Abyei? -- New York Times
After the JEM's attack, the south could slip away from Sudan -- Political Risk
Deadly fighting rages in Sudan flashpoint -- Pakistan Chronicle
“sounding the alarm on Abyei” -- ngKilloren
Sudan: "bloodbath" in Abeyi; US talks on hold -- WW4 Report
Heavy fighting renewed in southern Sudan -- Arabic Video News In English
China's Involvement In Sudan: Arms And Oil -- Human Rights Watch
Sudan: A history lesson -- Rosemary Thoughts

My Comment: The war between the mainly Arab north of the country and the non-Arab South of the country resulted in decades of war and over 2 million dead. But it is clear that the 2005 truce, which has lasted for almost 3 years, is now in ruins. The perception is that this part of Sudan holds enormous oil reserves, and with oil projected to be worth $150 in the next few years .... the tinder was already there for a match to light it.

My concern is the involvement of outside powers. During its civil war many external forces got involved. But unlike the past war, China is now the Sudanese Government's main supporter and purchaser of its oil. They have threatened to veto U.N. resolutions concerning Darfur, as well as maintaining close military ties with the Sudanese Government. If we see Chinese advisers, equipment, and/or soldiers involved in this fighting, this will be the start of a new geopolitical crisis for this will be the first time China will be directly involved in a conflict that is far away from its borders. On top of the Chinese, Iran is also involved in training the Sudanese Army.

As I had mentioned in my Sunday post "War And Conflicts In Central Africa -- May 18, 2008", this part of Africa is prime for an arm conflict that could engulf almost 300,00,000 people. The Chinese are already there, Iran is there, U.S. naval forces are off the coast of Somalia, Al Qaeda and every imaginable terrorist group is there .... throw in Africa's history of tribal and religious warfare .... the possibility of a Rwanda style genocide or a total regional war can be easily and realistically contemplated.

Archaeological and anthropological evidence indicates that this region of Africa is the birthplace for man. This same evidence .... as well records that go back to ancient times .... reveals that this region has always been under conflict, probably never being able to experience peace.

Will total break war break out in this region? I hope not. With the Chinese dependence on oil and with the Summer Olympics in a few weeks, China will probably try their best to keep this kettle from boiling over. I expect the West to do the same.

Will Africa's tribal history be kept in check .... probably not. But for the moment we are getting a taste of what may happen. We can also now easily observe how all parties are now clearly positioning themselves to take advantage of what may become Africa's first oil war.

52 Seconds of Obama Unilaterally Disarming America

After watching this video, I do not feel safe.



Comments on this video from the American Thinker sum up how I feel.

Where is the debate on this issue. Where is John McCain?

World 'More Peaceful' In 2008

From The Guardian:

Iceland is the world's most peaceful country, according to an index measuring internal and external turmoil in 140 countries. Only one of the G8 countries, the world's most economically powerful nations, makes it into the top ten of the survey, which is published today.

While Iraq, Somalia and Sudan unsurprisingly take the bottom three places in the index, the survey suggests that the world is a marginally more secure place than it was a year ago. Angola, Indonesia and India are seen as the nations that have made the greatest strides away from conflict in the twelve months since the previous index was published. All three countries have moved up the table.


Read more ....

The complete rankings list is here.

My Comment: No surprises. I would not have put the U.S. at 97. It is around 20 (in my opinion).

Malthus Redux -- The Global Food Crisis

Another must read post from Abu Muqawama:

The global food crisis is perhaps the least reported big event of the year. It stands to kill far more people than the cyclone in Myanmar or the earthquake in China. First it will kill through starvation, and then through the conflict over resources that it spawns. At a conference of experts that Kip observed on Afghanistan several weeks ago, all agreed that rising food prices were the single thing capable of throwing the country into utter and perhaps unrecoverable chaos. The same might be true of nuclear-armed Pakistan as well, not to mention several dozen other weak or failing states.

Read more ....

My Comment: His analysis on the impact that rising food prices have in fermenting conflicts and eventually wars is on the mark. Hunger rarely starts wars right away, instead it just prepares the groundwork for turmoil and conflicts to arise.

Previous Post: The Price Of Food, The Cost Of Despair

Russia Edges Closer To Proxy War With Georgia

From The Times Online:

Abkhazia: The Frozen Conflict That Is Thawing Rapidly

The young soldier traced his finger across snow-capped mountains and dense forest to the point where he had shot down the Georgian spy plane.

“They are coming practically every day now, but this one was crossing our valley so we took it out,” said Alyas Tsardiya, nodding towards an artillery cannon. Then, to deafening effect, he fired a few rounds in the direction of Georgia.

This is the Kodori Gorge, the tense front line between Georgia and its breakaway region of Abkhazia, that is becoming a flashpoint in the relationship between Russia and the West. This little-known corner of the Caucasus is Dmitri Medvedev’s first big test as President of Russia.

Read more ....

Update: Georgia's leader vows to prevent Russia reviving the Soviet Union -- The Independent

Update: Russia Claims Georgia in Arms Build Up -- Danger Room

My Comment: Georgia is way over its head on this manner. As much as they would like to keep their country intact, a large number of people in Abkhazia and in Russia have made the decision to break away from the Georgians. The unfortunate thing about this dispute, is that the West is being dragged into this mess.

Oil And War

Today's headlines:

Oil crosses $129 for first time, heads for $130 -- Yahoo News
Oil Rises to a Record After Pickens Says Prices May Reach $150 -- Bloomberg
Opec says oil could hit $200 -- Financial Times
America must face the harsh realities over oil -- Times Online
Every recent post by the blog .... The Oil Drum .... a website that I find incredibly informative and accurate in their forecasts .... paints a very dire picture of oil prices and availability.

With all of these headlines, I then come across this report which makes the following prediction: Oil Future and War Now: A Grim Earth Sciences’ Point of View.

Summarizing, the report says the following:

Worldwide per-capita oil consumption is closely correlated with the standard of living. In developing nations like China and India increasing prosperity therefore requires increased per-capita oil consumption. However, oil is a finite resource whose production globally is about to begin to decline irreversibly. Consequently the growing demand for oil is leading to a growing global conflict in which the Gulf War, the 9/11 attack, and the war in Iraq are just the first three skirmishes. These skirmishes pale in comparison with the looming potential conflict over oil with China.

The complete report in pdf is here.

My Comment: Oil is the lifeblood of our civilization today. It is unfortunate that much of the world's reserves today are in the most unstable of countries. I personally do not believe that shortages of supply and price hikes will precipitate an immediate war, instead I can easily forsee a slow bleed in which falling living standards, economic dislocation, and rising internal tensions in countries that are most vulnerable to oil shocks ..... China and India just to name two ..... can easily escalate over a period of months to a year or two into a major conflict.

My hope is that energy alternatives will become more economical and preferable to oil as it and its byproducts become more scarce and expensive. My fear is that governments ..... always responding to crisis with short term goals in mind ..... will respond in a manner that will make a terrible problem worse.

Other useful articles and links on oil, its future, and consequences for war are the following:
The Oil Drum -- An informative site that discusses energy issues and our future.
The Undeclared Oil War -- A 2004 Washington Post article discussing Japanese and Chinese competition for oil resources.
Oil And War -- A prophetic and informative article from 2003 (John Robb's Weblog).
Oil Wars -- A book by Mary Kaldor , Terry Karl, Yahia Said. The link goes to Avaxhome where it can be freely downloaded.

Required Reading: The Spectacle of War by Andrew Exum

Hat Tip to Mountain Runner:

Quoting Mountain Runner directly:

Read Andrew Exum's excellent The Spectacle of War: Insurgent video propaganda and Western response (or PDF version here) at Arab Media & Society. Andrew describes what I call precision-guided media to mobilize supporters through a combination of traditional media such as radio and television, to New Media like websites, discussion boards, YouTube, and SMS. Modern insurgents have moved well beyond the international sympathy of the Zapatista to, as Andrew describes, fostering and relying on a re-interpretation of nationalism to mobilize and elicit responses near and far.

Read more ....

My Comment: The report by Andrew Exum is incredibly clear and insightful, instructive, and educational in explaining how propaganda now functions in the internet age. The brief comments and explanations from Mountain Runner also go straight to the point ..... this post should be required reading for all news editors and publishers.

Lieberman Wants Terrorist Content Yanked From YouTube


From ABC News:

A U.S. senator has asked Google to remove videos -- produced by Islamist terrorists -- from YouTube.

In a letter to Google chairman and CEO Eric Schmidt, Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., said, "A great majority of these videos document horrific attacks on American soldiers in Iraq or Afghanistan."

Other videos, Lieberman said, "provide weapons training, speeches by al-Qaeda leadership, and general material intended to radicalize potential recruits."

Lieberman asks Google to apply its own community guidelines, which forbid graphic or gratuitous violence, and videos that show, "someone getting hurt, attacked, or humiliated."

Read more ....

My Comment: YouTube receives hundreds of thousands of videos each day. While offensive videos are always removed, the problem is that it takes time from complaint to its final removal. The problem also comes from the fact that most people do not go out of their way to see these clips ..... and thereby be in a position to complain. Extremists and excited youngsters may love this crap, but average viewers like myself will not even bother going out of our way to find this stuff, let alone see it.

Therefore, Ben Venzke's comments are right on (unfortunately), when he says .....

According to terrorism analyst Ben Venzke, removing terrorist videos from YouTube would have little effect. "The core underlying issue is that, whether you take the videos off of YouTube or not, they will always be available at numerous other locations online," Venzke told ABC News.

'Iran's Nuke Program May Spur Arms Race'

From The Jerusalem Post:

Iran's disputed nuclear program has sent a wave of interest in atomic energy across the Middle East, a think tank said Tuesday, warning that it risked setting the scene for a regional nuclear arms race.

At least 13 Middle Eastern countries either announced new plans to explore atomic energy or revived pre-existing nuclear programs between February 2006 and January 2007, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, or IISS, said in a report.

While the flurry of interest in nuclear power is still tentative, the report said countries such as Saudi Arabia, Algeria or Egypt could soon feel the need to match Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Read more ....

Update From Yahoo News: Report: Iran's nuclear program feeding proliferation

Update From AP:
Report: Iran's nuclear program feeding proliferation

Commentary From IBD: Nuclear Epidemic

My Comment: Libya has disbanded its program. Syria's reactor in the desert was bombed, and numerous countries such as Egypt and Turkey are concerned about security issues when it comes to Iran. But the country that I am most concerned about is Saudi Arabia. They have the financial and intellectual resources to develop very quickly a program that will give them the tools to produce nuclear weapons.

The reasons why Saudi Arabia would do this are multiple. Ego and pride ..... they perceive themselves as the preeminent Muslim country in the Islamic world, responsible for Islam's most holy of sites. Security issues with Iran and their own Shiite community. Being a counter to Israel's nuclear program. Being aware of the declining position of the United States as they prepare themselves for a new President and the eventual American withdrawal from Iraq. Being a counter and deterrent to the West (and the East) and those countries who are already hungry for energy resources.

With Iran rushing to develop a nuclear weapons program, it is in my opinion when, not if, Saudi Arabia will have their own program. They will do it in the same manner as the Japanese. Japan has all the facilities and resources to have nuclear weapons. If the decision is made in Japan to have a nuclear weapon because of some international crisis, it would only be a matter of time (I am talking about a month or two) that they would these weapons available.

The wire services talk about how Iran may spur an arms race ..... I think it is already happening.

War News, Blogs, Opinions, And Wire Service Roundup -- May 20, 2008

WAR/TERRORISM NEWS SUMMARIES AROUND THE WORLD
United States Central Command
Complete Roundup Of World Trouble Spots -- Small Wars Journal
Morning Brief -- Foreign Policy
Global Incident Map
Spotlight on Military News and International Affairs -- Canadian Perspective
Summary Of Wars & Conflicts: Right Hand Side Of Page -- Counter Terrorism Blog
Global Security News Roundup -- Global Security.org
Latest News -- Strategy Page
Institute For War And Peace Reporting
Intelligence News Roundup -- Intelligence Online
Analysis And Commentaries -- International Relations And Security Network
Alertnet From Reuters -- Use Their Search Filter
Emerging Threats -- United Press International
International Forecasting And News -- Stratfor

IRAQ
Iraq News -- E I N News
Conflict In Iraq -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
War In Iraq -- MSNBC
Iraq News Online -- Times Online
Iraq Weekly Status Report -- U.S. State Department
Iraq Coalition Casualty Count

AFGHANISTAN
Afghanistan -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Afghanistan Update: April 1-30, 2008 -- Center For Defense Information
Operations In Afghanistan -- U.K. Ministry Of Defense

MIDDLE EAST
Mideast Conflicts -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Middle East Coverage -- Memri

SECURITY AND TERRORISM
Security -- MSNBC
Terrorism -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Terrorism -- MSNBC
National Terror Alert Response Center

U.S. MILITARY NEWS
U.S. Department Of Defense News
News in The Military -- Military News
Stars And Stripes
U.S. Armed Forces News -- Full Coverage From Yahoo News
Index Of Military Blogs: Stories Updated Daily -- Military.com
Milblogging: Stories Updated Daily -- Index Of Military Blogs
Directory Of Intelligence Sites -- Strategic Intelligence