Joshua Keating, Slate: The Depressingly Predictable Collapse of Ukraine’s Cease-Fire
The Ukraine ceasefire agreement signed last week in Minsk appears to be falling apart even more quickly than expected. Russian-backed separatists say they’ve taken over the town of Debaltseve, which had been the site of heavy fighting in the days leading up to the agreement’s signing. Both sides claim that Debaltseve is on their side of the ceasefire line and the agreement didn’t resolve the issue. Ukrainian military troops are trapped in the city, a key transportation hub, with dwindling supplies.
WNU Editor: All that is left right now are the accusations .... Ukraine: US accuses Russia of breaching ceasefire after fighting at key town (The Guardian) .... and all the leaders making a commitment to have a conference call .... French, German, Russian, Ukrainian leaders to hold telephone conference on Feb. 18 (Kyiv Post). But what is going to happen next is hard to predict .... this is a major defeat for the Ukrainian army, but the pro-Russian rebels are also limited in what they can do. I can now easily foresee a stalemate situation where both sides will be consolidating their new positions, and an attempt will be made to at least make Minsk II work. But even if this happens, sporadic fighting and shelling will probably continue .... and stresses to the ceasefire .... at least on what is left of it .... will continue. My ultimate worry is that Ukrainian nationalist militias have vowed that they will never respect the ceasefire agreement and that they will continue the fight .... and on the other side .... there are many pro-Russian supporters .... especially on the Ukraine side of the ceasefire line .... who will probably continue the fight until the last Ukrainian soldier has left the region. Either way .... this conflict .... from my vantage point .... is far from over.
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