Sabtu, 11 April 2015

Arctic Sea Ice At Record Low On April 9 2015

On April 9, 2015, Arctic sea ice extent was only 14.051 square km, a record low for the time of the year, as illustrated by the image below.

Temperature anomalies at the top end of the scale (20°C, or 36°F) are hitting the Arctic Ocean in many places, as illustrated by the forecast below, showing an overall anomaly of +3.19°C for the Arctic for April 11, 2015, despite low temperatures over Greenland.


The situation is very worrying, the more so since a huge amount of ocean heat is lining up to be carried into the Arctic Ocean by the Gulf Stream. On April 10, 2015, sea surface temperatures of 24.1°C were recorded off the North American coast (green circle), a +12.5°C anomaly, as the image below shows.


Malcolm Light commentsIn this inverted blowup of the high temperature region you can see the expanded effect of methane hydrate detabilization along the Gakkel Ridge and the high temperatures caused by the onshore methane eruption vents (image below).



The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan blog.


On April 9, 2015, Arctic sea ice extent was only 14.051 square km, a record low for the time of the year. From the post ...

Posted by Sam Carana on Saturday, April 11, 2015

Jumat, 10 April 2015

North Siberian Arctic Permafrost Methane Eruption Vents

Mantle Methane Leakage via Late Permian Deep Penetrating Fault and Shear Fracture Systems Rejuvenated by Carbon Dioxide and Methane Induced Global Warming

By Malcolm P.R. Light, Harold H. Hensel and Sam Carana

Abstract

In North Siberia some 30 permafrost methane eruption vents occur along the trend of the inner (continental side) third of the Late Permian Taimyr Volcanic Arc where the crust and mantle were the weakest and the most fractured. Deep penetrating faults and shear systems allowed molten basaltic magmas charged with large volumes of carbon dioxide and methane free access to the surface where they formed giant pyroclastic eruptions. The large volume of carbon dioxide and methane added to the atmosphere by this Late Permian volcanic activity led to a massive atmospheric temperature pulse that caused a major worldwide extinction event (Wignall, 2009). These deep penetrating fractures form a major migration conduit system for the presently erupting methane vents in the North Siberian permafrost and the submarine Enrico PV Anomaly. During periods of lower atmospheric carbon dioxide and lower temperatures, the permafrost methane vents became sealed by the formation of methane hydrate (clathrate) plugs forming pingos. The surface methane clathrate plugs are now being destabilized by human pollution induced global warming and the mantle methane released into the atmosphere at the permafrost methane explosion vents. This has opened a giant, long standing (Permian to Recent) geopressured, mantle methane pressure-release safety valve. There is now no fast way to reseal this system because it will require extremely quick cooling of the atmosphere and the Arctic Ocean. The situation calls for comprehensive and effective action, including breaking down the methane in the water before it gets into the atmosphere using methane devouring symbiotic bacteria (Glass et al. 2013) and simultaneously breaking down the existing atmospheric methane using radio-laser systems which can also form methane consuming hydroxyl molecules (Alamo and Lucy Projects, Light and Carana, 2012, 2013).


Permafrost Methane Eruption Vents

During 2014 and 2015 at least 30 methane eruption vents, 7 of which are very large were identified in northern Siberia in the permafrost (Figures 1 to 3)(Zulinova in Liesowska 2015, Wales, 2015, Wignall 2009, Light 2014, Scribbler R., 2015). Of the seven major methane eruption vents (craters) in the Arctic area, 5 are on the Yamal Peninsula, one is in the Yamal Autonomous District and the seventh near Krasnoyarsk close to the Taimyr Peninsula (Figure 3, Liesowska, 2015). This permafrost methane eruption vent zone correlates with the inner third of the continental side of the Late Permian Age Taimyr Volcanic Arc where the top of the underlying Permian subduction zone lay at a depth between 200 km and 225 km (Figure 3, Light 2014). These methane eruption vents occur along fracture systems, transform faults, strike slip-slip faults oblique to the subduction direction and normal fault lines that also cut the Permian volcanic arc and the permafrost up to the continental edge of the arc (Figure 3).


Late Permian Extinction Event

In the Late Permian a massive eruption phase occured along the entire central and north eastern part of the "Taimyr Volcanic Arc" producing an extremely wide and thick sheet-like succession of flood trap lavas and tuffs (Siberian Traps Large Igneous Province) that spread south eastwards over the Siberian Craton (Figure 2, Light 2014). During the Late Permian there was a major global extinction event which resulted in a large loss of species caused by catastrophic methane eruptions from destabilization of subsea methane hydrates in the Paleo-Arctic (Figures 2, 3 and 4)(Wignall 2009, Light 2014, Scribbler 2015, Merali 2004, Goho 2004, Scott et al, PNAS, Dawson 1967, Kennedy and Kennedy, 1976). Extreme global warming was caused when vast volumes of carbon dioxide were released into the atmosphere from the widespread eruption of volcanics in northern Siberia (Figure 2; Wignall 2009) whose main source zone, the "Taimyr Volcanic Arc" on land in northern Siberia (Figure 3) is not a great distance from the present trend of the Arctic Ocean Gakkel Ridge and the Enrico Pv Anomaly extreme methane emission zone. Because the Arctic forms a graveyard for subducted plates, the mantle there is highly fractured and it is also a primary source zone for mantle methane formed from the reduction of oceanic carbonates by water in the presence of iron (II) oxides buried to depths of 100 km to 300 km in the Asthenosphere and at temperatures above 1200°C (Figure 4)(Gaina et al. 2013; Goho 2004; Merali 2004; Light 2014).

In addition to the widespread eruption of volcanics in Northern Siberia in the Late Permian (250 million years ago), swarms of pyroclastic kimberlites also erupted between 245 and 228 million years ago along a NNE trending shear system in the mantle which extends up the east flank of the Lena River delta and intersects the Gakkel Ridge slow spreading ridge on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (Figure 4). Cenozoic volcanics also occur to the north and north east of the Lena River delta marking the trend of the slow spreading Gakkel Ridge on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (Sekretov 1998). All this pyroclastic activity along the slow spreading Gakkel Ridge from the Late Permian to the present is evidence of deep pervasive vertical mantle fracturing and shearing which has formed conduits for the release of carbon dioxide and deeply sourced mantle methane out of Siberia and the Arctic sea floor into the atmosphere (Light 2014).

Thermodynamic Conditions Necessary to form Mantle Methane

On a vertical temperature - pressure/ depth cross section (Figure 4) the surface methane eruption vents are fed from vertical crustal and mantle fractures from more deeply sourced mantle methane below 225 km depth that has migrated up the fractured and sheared surface of the Late Permian subducting oceanic plate and then entered the vertical fractures allowing it to the surface where the methane is now erupting along the inner (continental side) third of the "Taimyr Volcanic Arc" (Dawson, 1967, Kennedy and Kennedy 1976. Merali 2004, Goho 2004, Scott et al, PNAS, Light 2014). What is remarkable is that the present surface methane eruption vent region corresponds exactly to the zone where the crust and mantle was the weakest in the Late Permian because the continental rock melt line (dry solidus) rises steeply to within a few km of the surface peaking exactly in the centre of zone defined by the methane eruption vents (Figure 4).

This implies that in the Late Permian, the inner continental side of the volcanic arc was a region of intense pyroclastic volcanic activity because the lavas were highly charged in carbon dioxide and methane. The eruption of these gases led to massive peak in global warming that culminated in the Major Late Permian Extinction Event when mean global atmospheric temperatures exceeded 26.6°C (Wignall. 2009).

This inner (continental side) third of the "Taimyr Volcanic Arc" was thus severly fractured by extreme pyroclastic volcanic activity and gas effusions in the Late Permian and has remained so up to the present day thus forming a major migration conduit system for the presently erupting methane vents in the Siberian permafrost. During periods of lower atmospheric carbon dioxide and lower temperatures the permafrost methane vents became sealed by the formation of methane hydrate (clathrate) plugs forming pingos (Figures 5, 6 and 7; Hovland et al. 2006; Paull et al., 2007; Carana, 2011, Liesowska, 2015). The surface methane clathrate plugs have now been destabilized by human pollution induced global warming and the methane is being released into the atmosphere at the permafrost methane explosion vents. Extreme methane concentrations, up to 1000 times above the mean atmospheric level has been found at the base of the methane eruption vents by Russian scientists (Holthaus, 2015) confirming that they are still linked to deeper methane sources which may be geopressujred. Before the Yamal B1 methane eruption vent developed, hillocks (pingoes) rose in the permafrost heralding the coming massive methane gas eruption (Figure 7; Liesowska, 2015). Other pingoes adjacent to the Yamal B1 methane eruption vent could also collapse at any moment emitting a large cloud of methane gas (Liesowska, 2015).
In the Last Ice age, the methane seal system (methane hydrate pingos) was maintained by the low temperatures and trapped the mantle methane below the ground. Now however human pollution which caused a massive carbon dioxide atmospheric buildup exceeding 400 ppm has started to break the seals on the mantle methane fractures in 2014 and 2015 allowing them to spew increasingly large quantities of deep mantle methane directly into the Arctic atmosphere. In the Late Permian, the massive volume of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere during these cataclysmic eruptions produced extreme global warming in the air and oceans which also dissasocciated the Paleo-Arctic permafrost and subsea methane hydrates and the methane hydrate seals above the Enrico Pv Anomaly generating a massive seafloor and mantle methane pulse into the atmosphere that caused the Major Late Permian Extinction Event (Figures 2 to 4) (Wignall. 2009).

A sequence of extreme pyroclastic basaltic eruptions occur along the Gakkel Ridge (85oE volcanoes) which has an ultra - slow rate of plate spreading of 15 to 20 mm a year (Sohn et al. 2007). These volcanoes formed from the explosive eruption of gas - rich basaltic magmatic foams as shown by recovered green - glass fragments and pillow lavas. Long intervals between eruptions during slow spreading produced a huge gas and volatile buildup at high storage pressures deep down in the crust (Sohn et al 2007). A volatile and carbon dioxide content of some 13.5% to 14% (Wt./Wt. - volume fraction 75%) is necessary at 5 km depth in the Arctic Ocean to fragment the erupting magma (Sohn et al. 2007). These extreme pyroclastic basaltic volcanic eruptions are probably a modern day equivalent of the types of eruptions that occured in the region of methane eruption vents along the "Taimyr Volcanic Arc" in the Late Permian and totally fractured the mantle and crust producing deep reaching conduits that allowed mantle methane below 225 km access to the surface (Figure 4). The more fluid Gakkel Ridge pillow lava basalts mirror the very fluid Siberian "Trapp" flows that covered a large part of Siberia in the Late Permian (Figure 2 and 3).

Conclusions

Our present extreme fossil fuel driven, carbon dioxide global warming is predicted to produce exactly the same mantle methane release from the permafrost methane eruption vents along the Late Permian "TaimyrVolcanic Arc", subsea Arctic methane hydrates and the Enrico Pv Anomaly "Extreme Methane Emission Zone" by the 2050's, leading to total deglaciation and the extinction of all life on Earth.

Mankind has, in his infinite stupidity, with his extreme hydrocarbon addiction and fossil fuel induced global warming, opened a giant, long standing (Permian to Recent), geopressured, mantle methane pressure-release safety valve for methane gas generated between 100 km and 300 km depth and at temperatures of above 1200°C in the asthenosphere (Figures 1 to 6). This is now a region of massive methane emissions (Carana, 2011-2015).

There seems to be no fast and easy way to reseal this system. To sufficiently cool the Atmosphere and Arctic Ocean cannot be achieved in the short time frame we have left to complete the job. In some cases, it may be possible to reseal conduits with concrete or other material, or to capture methane for storage in hydrates at safer locations, but the sheer number of vulnerable locations and the size of the work involved is daunting.

Figure 9. Climate Action Plan, from Climate Plan
Other ways to deal with the methane are to break it down in the water and in the atmosphere, as also depicted in Figure 9 (enhanced decomposition). Efforts to break down methane in the atmosphere using radio-laser systems have been described by Light and Carana (Figure 8, Alamo and Lucy Projects, Light and Carana, 2012, 2013, Ehret 2012; Sternowski 2012; Iopscience, 2013, Arctic-news, 2012). Scientists at Georgia Tech. University have found in the ocean that at very low temperatures two symbiotic methane eating organisms group together, consume methane in the presence of tungsten and excrete carbon dioxide which then reacts with minerals in the water to form carbonate mounds (Glass et al. 2013). This means that the United States must fund a major project at Georgia Tech. to quickly develop the means to grow these methane consuming bacteria in massive quantities with their tungsten enzyme and find the means to deliver them to the Polar oceans as soon as possible. More generally, the situation calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan blog.


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Figure References

Figure 7. Enhanced Lucy Transmission System. Image from Light and Carana 2012. Lidar methane detecting laser from Ehret, 2012. Methane heating laser from Sternowski, 2012. Hydroxyl formation from iopscience.iop.org, 2013.


North Siberian Arctic Permafrost Methane Eruption Vents | by Malcolm Light, Harold Hensel and Sam Caranahttp://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/04/north-siberian-arctic-permafrost-methane-eruption-vents.html

Posted by Sam Carana on Friday, April 10, 2015

Selasa, 31 Maret 2015

Are The Iranian Nuclear Talks Just Another US vs Russia (And China) Power Game?

P5+1 European Union officials and Iranian officials wait for the start of a meeting on Iran's nuclear program at the Beau Rivage Palace Hotel in Lausanne on March 30, 2015. Reuters/Brendan Smialowski

Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge: The Iran "Talks" - Just Another US vs Russia (And China) Power Game

Update, and just as expected: IRAN NUCLEAR NEGOTIATORS MAY MISS 3RD DEADLINE: U.S. OFFICIAL

In what has been the world's longest negotiation (we are only modestly joking: the Iran P5+1 nuclear "talks" started in 2013 and have yet to achieve anything) one whose "rolling deadline" has been breached time and time again, it appears that with today's latest deadline just hours away, the most likely outcome is another deadline extension even though, as Reuters puts it, "Iran and six world powers ramped up the pace on Tuesday in negotiations over a preliminary deal on Tehran's nuclear program, while officials cautioned that any agreement would likely be fragile and incomplete."

The negotiations, which we have largely ignored covering as the past has abundantly shown that nothing ever actually gets done except for a lot of talking, posturing, gesticulating and pizza-ordering, have seen the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China trying to break an impasse in the talks, which are aimed at stopping Iran from gaining the capacity to develop a nuclear bomb in exchange for easing international sanctions that are crippling its economy.


WNU Editor: I am sure that U.S. - China - Russian politics and diplomacy between themselves are involved n these talks .... but Iran has always marched to its own tune, and I expect them to continue doing just that.

Nigeria's Opposition Party Declares Victory In Presidential Elections



Reuters: Buhari claims victory in historic Nigerian vote

(Reuters) - Nigeria's opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) declared an election victory on Tuesday for former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari and said Africa's most populous nation was witnessing history with its first democratic transfer of power.

"The people of Nigeria have taken over," an ecstatic APC spokesman Lai Mohammed told Reuters at the house in the capital where Buhari, a sandal-wearing Muslim ascetic watching the results on television.

"This is the first time in Nigeria that a sitting government will be voted out of power using purely democratic means."

More News On Nigeria's Elections

Opposition party declares victory in Nigeria election -- Al Jazeera
Nigeria election: Buhari poised for victory as governing party cries foul -- The Guardian
Buhari leads Jonathan in Nigeria election -- USA Today
Buhari Closes in on Historic Victory in Nigerian Election -- VOA
Muhammadu Buhari Holds Narrow Lead Over Goodluck Jonathan in Nigeria Election -- WSJ
In Nigeria’s Election, Muhammadu Buhari Holds Lead Over Goodluck Jonathan -- NYT
Who is Nigeria's Muhammadu Buhari? -- Susannah Cullinane and Stephanie Busari, CNN

Is This Al Qaeda's Strategy To Defeat President Bashar Assad?

Rebel fighters, one of them carrying a flag used by al Qaeda's Nusra Front, celebrate at the Mihrab roundabout in the Idlib city centre, after they took control of the area on March 28, 2015. Reuters/Khalil Ashawi

IBTimes: Jabhat Al-Nusra's Win In Idlib Highlights Al Qaeda's Strategy To Defeat President Bashar Assad

The Syrian civil war began as a battle between Syrian opposition groups and President Bashar Assad’s regime, but the battleground quickly evolved into a kaleidoscope of brigades and battalions fighting each other, the regime and terrorist organizations like the Islamic State group. And now, four years into a conflict that is increasingly pulling in foreign fighters and international powers, one Syrian faction has emerged as the most effective one fighting Assad: al Qaeda.

Al Qaeda’s branch in Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra (JN), has capitalized on the threat of the Islamic State group, also known as ISIS, and the increasing ineffectiveness of moderate rebel groups. And it has succeeded on the ground thanks to a military strategy that relies on partnerships with other rebel groups, many of whom JN said it would be willing to include in a post-Assad Syrian government.

WNU Editor: One of the reasons why President Bashar Assad’s regime has been able to stay in power for so long has been (and still is) the disunity among his opponents .... both politically and militarily. If these rebel groups are able to unify, the military dynamics will definitely change on the ground .... but politically .... the idea of Al Qaeda being victorious in Syria .... I cannot even begin listing the nightmare scenarios that are going through my mind on that prospect.

Iraqi Prime Minister: The Islamic State Has Been Driven Out Of Central Tikrit



Reuters: Iraqi forces drive Islamic State out of central Tikrit: PM

(Reuters) - Iraqi troops aided by Shi'ite paramilitaries have driven Islamic State out of central Tikrit, Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi said on Tuesday, but the fight to retake all of Saddam Hussein's home town continued.

Government forces have been in a month-long fight for the city, which became a bastion for the Sunni jihadists who are at war with Baghdad and have been targeted by U.S.-led air strikes.

Hundreds of insurgents ready to fight to the death are still holed up in Salahuddin province's capital city and at least three neighborhoods remain under Islamic State control, along with a palace complex in the city's north.

The further Iraqi forces push into the city, the greater the risk of ambushes.

WNU Editor: I have heard these claims before (more than once) .... so I will wait until independent journalists are reporting from the center of Tikrit before stating that this is true.

More News On The Battle For Tikrit

Iraq premier: Troops in center of Islamic State-held Tikrit -- AP
Iraq's Prime Minister is claiming that a key city has been retaken from ISIS -- AFP
Iraqi forces take back Tikrit from ISIS, official says -- CNN
Iraqi forces take large parts of Tikrit from ISIS, prime minister says -- FOX News
Iraqi Security Forces Recapture Tikrit From Islamic State -- WSJ
Iraq forces retake government HQ in Tikrit -- Al Arabiya
Iraqi forces advance in Tikrit following U.S. strikes -- Washington Post

Saudi Arabia's New Defense Chief Faces His First War

Yemeni president Abd-Rabbu Hadi is welcomed to Riyadh by Saudi defence minister Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud

Financial Times: Yemen strikes are test of youthful Saudi defence minister

As Saudi jets pummelled Houthi rebel targets around the Yemeni capital Sana’a, Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud was co-ordinating the strikes from the Saudi military’s operations centre.

The surprise assault is meant to stem the rapid advance of the Zaydi Shia militia that, allied with former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, has brought the Sunni Gulf allied-Yemeni government to the brink of extinction.


Update #1: Meet The Poster Boy Of Saudi Arabia’s Yemen Strikes -- Vocativ
Update #2: Saudi Arabia's Rising Stars -- Glen Carey And Kambiz Forooha, Bloomberg

WNU Editor:
No one even knows how old Saudi Arabia's new defense chief is (some say 30, others say 35) .... but everyone knows that he is the son of the new king. Hmmm .... speaking of nepotism.