My worst fears are now being realized.
Since the beginning of the revolution in Ukraine .... starting with the overthrow of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych .... I have always stated in this blog that my worst fears was a situation in which Ukrainian nationalists would impose an environment that would make the Russian dominated eastern part of the country rise in a revolt that would culminate into a civil war and a Russian intervention. Sadly .... 6 months later .... this is exactly what is happening today.
The situation in eastern Ukraine is now one of anarchy, indiscriminate bombings and killings, a massive refugee crisis, devastation, and casualty rates going through the roof. As I have said before .... if there was going to be a Russian military intervention .... it would be done if this was the environment in eastern Ukraine. Well .... that is the environment today .... and absent any real moves to find a negotiated settlement .... it looks like Putin made the decision a few weeks ago to intervene.
With hindsight .... the change a few weeks ago in the political and military leadership of the rebel movement to that of hardcore regional military commanders was the first sign that the war was going to enter a new phase. It also appears that the ten Russian paratroopers that were captured by Ukrainian forces on Monday were actually doing reconnaissance on the border .... and while they may not have known what was their exact mission (to them it was just a patrol).... their commanders wanted to know if Ukrainian forces were present (which they were). The Monday attack of a Ukrainian border post by Russia attack helicopters was another red flag that something was going to happen .... this was the first time that Russian air support was used in such a manner, but equally important was the target .... from this border post there you could tell if Russian forces were moving into Ukraine. The meeting in Minsk between Putin and Poroshenko on Tuesday was .... as I had said in a commentary on Tuesday .... "weird". The body language was all wrong. The public discussions were on generalities. Nothing really substantive was being talked about. Both leaders had a private 2 hour discussion late at night .... this is in itself was a surprise and unprecedented. And after that discussion .... Putin was and has not been seen publicly .... another sign that something was up.
U.S./NATO are saying that there are now 1,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Ukrainian rebel leaders are saying that 4,000 Russian soldiers/volunteers are now helping rebel forces in their fight against the Ukrainian military. Ukraine military sources are claiming that 15,000 Russian soldiers have entered the country. Either way .... the dynamics on the ground have changed. As to what are the Russian/rebel military objectives .... it appears that their forces are aiming to seize the south-eastern cities of Mariupol and Novoazovsk .... and maybe driving to Crimea itself thereby opening a land route to the peninsula. For the Ukrainian military .... this is now an unsustainable military operation. They are operating in a region where many of the locals are hostile towards them, they are being cut off from re-supplies, and they are probably facing a fight (if not in it already) against Russian special forces. If Russian air support gets involved .... this could become a rout.
The next few days are going to be critical. We are still not sure on what are the ultimate objectives for Russia in this incursion/invasion .... is it to give some support to the rebel movement so that they are not defeated? Is it to pressure Ukrainian Poroshenko to the negotiating table to discuss and implement a ceasefire and agreement with the Russian rebel movement in the east? Is it to seize and annex eastern Ukraine? All options are now on the table .... and the civil war has now escalated into something far more bigger and dangerous.
On a personal note .... I cannot express how angry and depressed I am of this situation. I warned about this in February/March to my "friends" in the Russian foreign office in Moscow and to two parliamentary deputies that I know in Kiev .... but no one took my concerns seriously. Impossible some said .... I have been living too long in the West is what others said. Sighhh .... and today .... I hear nothing but silence from them when I said "I told you so" this morning.
The end result (in my eyes) is now predictable. Massive destruction. Massive numbers of casualties. Refugee numbers reaching 2 million. A bitterness between Ukrainians and Russians that will last a few generations. Political upheavals and unrest in Ukraine. A poisoning in Russian -Western relations. More sanctions. And a NATO - Russian arms buildup.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar