Several days ago, as rumors of early elections were swirling in Israel, I emailed an advisor to Prime Minister Netanyahu and asked these two questions: “As a practical matter, can the PM legally take the country to war if the government has been dissolved and preparing for elections? If so, is there a scenario in which Netanyahu calls for new elections in Feb, but launches a war in Nov, Dec or Jan?”The advisor’s reply to both was short and to the point: “Yes.”
There is no question in my mind that Netanyahu is getting ready for war with Iran. The question is: How? Is he using early elections to shore up his political support and divide his opposition at an opportune time? His Likud Party is riding high in the polls right now, while the Kadima party is plunging in the polls? Or is Netanyahu using the elections to cause Iran to think he is putting off his decision to go to war, when really it war is imminent? Both? Neither? Netanyahu is certainly keeping things interesting. But one thing is clearer today: the rumors of early elections are not rumors any more. It’s a fact — Israel is going to the polls, and soon.
“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanayhu announced Tuesday evening that he will be bringing forward the next general elections to early 2013,” reports the Times of Israel. “He did not specify a date, but said he would go to the polls ‘as soon as possible’ and spoke of a ‘three month campaign’ — which could mean as soon as January 2013. ‘I seek a renewed mandate from the people to continue to lead the state of Israel,’ he said. He said his government, which was about to mark four years in office, had been ‘the most stable in decades.’ It had made impressive achievements in the fields of security — including deployment of the Iron Dome anti-missile system, and progress on the Israel-Egypt border fence — and on the economy, even in the midst of global financial crisis. But there was still much work to be done — including thwarting Iran’s nuclear drive, defending Israel’s borders from terror and infiltration, maintaining Israel’s regional peace accords, protecting Israel’s interests in peace efforts with the Palestinians, and nurturing the economy, Netanyahu said.”
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu ignited an expedited election campaign Tuesday night when he announced that he would seek an early election when the Knesset returns from its extended summer recess next Monday.
In a statement he delivered at the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem, Netanyahu said that after completing his round of meetings with his coalition partners, he concluded that he could not pass the 2013 state budget, so he would have no choice but to initiate elections.
“My obligation as prime minister is to put the national interest above all else, and therefore I decided that the good of Israel requires going to elections now, as soon as possible,” Netanyahu said. “A three-month election campaign would be preferable for Israel than a long campaign that would last an entire year and harm the economy. So after four years, we will go to elections. I will seek a new mandate to continue to lead the people of Israel.”
Netanyahu did not give a specific date for the election and he was purposely vague about the timing. The earliest possible election date by law would be January 15, while the first date that would be four years after the last election would be February 12.
For more commentary/analysis also see:
For Netanyahu, A Reelection Campaign With An Eye To Washington
If Netanyahu is reelected — and while the polls leave little doubt that he will win a second straight term, nothing is quite certain with Israel’s volatile electorate and unpredictable regional challenges — he can proceed with whatever plans he has regarding a preemptive strike on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities. Indeed, buoyed by an election victory and with the US elections well behind him, Netanyahu would have a much freer hand to act in the Iranian arena than he would have had this fall. And preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, Netanyahu’s confidants claim, is his political raison d’être.
Political analysts also say that Netanyahu is rushing to the polls in January to avoid trouble with Washington regarding peace talks with the Palestinians. If US President Barack Obama loses the November 6 election, he will be a lame duck president until Mitt Romney is inaugurated on January 20, 2013. In the past, outgoing US leaders have spent their last months in office trying desperately to push Israelis and Palestinians to settle their differences and sign an agreement. If, however, Israel is in the middle of an extremely brief election campaign this winter, no US president will seriously expect Netanyahu to try to sit down with Abbas to rekindle a deadlocked peace process, especially not one that has been lying barren for most of the four years Netanyahu has been in office.
Indeed, all recent polls predict a large majority for the prime minister’s Likud party, which can expect to gain one seat, and, with 28 mandates, become the Knesset’s largest party.
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