Minggu, 31 Agustus 2014

Will Russia Be Able To Absorb Sanctions From The West

Russian President Vladimir Putin called on Kiev authorities to think about the approaching heating period. © RIA Novosti. Mikhail Klementiev

Vladimir Putin Has Absorbed The West's 'Consequences' And Stepped Up His Aggression -- Peter Foster, The Telegraph

American Way: Putin has shown that he is willing to take all the economic pain America and Europe are prepared to inflict. So what's to stop him from going even further?

When Barack Obama arrives in the Estonian capital of Tallinn early this week to meet the presidents of the three Baltic States, he will come bearing the gift of assurances.

Framed against a glorious medieval backdrop, Mr Obama will promise that while their nations may indeed be small, and newcomers to Nato, the United States and the major European military powers "mean what we say" when it comes to honouring Nato's mutual defence pact.

As any parent will tell you, when an authority figure warns that "I mean what I say" it's almost always a sign that the object of such threats - in this case Russian president Vladimir Putin - has good reason to doubt the truth of that statement, or at least to test whether or not it is true.

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My Comment: The Russians are now "circling the wagons" .... and from Putin's perspective .... he is in the middle of this circle. While almost all Russians are against going to war against Ukraine .... if it comes to a war this anti-war sentiment will disappear in a minute. As to the impact of sanctions .... the culture and mindset is different in Russia. War means everyone must sacrifice .... this is accepted as a fact .... and as a result everyone will pitch in even if sanctions means tough times. Case in point .... I have relatives who live in the city of Kharkiv which is near the Russian border and the Dohensk and Luhansk regions where much of this fighting is occurring. Everyone in the family is making sure (in both Russia and Ukraine)  that they will be taken care of during the cold winter months .... in my case .... my contribution is money. It is not like the U.S., where I have discovered that war has become a burden to only those who serve and to their families who must always worry about their loved ones. For most Americans .... they may have strong opinions about the wars that America is involved in .... but on a personal level .... totally untouched with the exception of paying a bit more in taxes and having a greater national debt in the future. In Europe .... this mindset is even more so .... no one wants to suffer economically.

Sabtu, 30 Agustus 2014

Ring Of Ice



Prominence of earthquakes in North America and around Greenland has prompted a team of researchers led by Arctic-news blog editor Sam Carana to coin the phrase “Ring Of Ice” to describe what they see happening in the Arctic.

“Melting of ice in north Canada and on Greenland is causing pressure changes, resulting in seismic activity”, explains Sam Carana.

Heavy seismic activity is ocurring along the faultlines that constitute the border of the North American Plate, similar to the the heavy activity along the Ring Of Fire around the Pacific Ocean.

Seismic activity roughly follows the borders of the North American Plate, which includes Greenland. However, where the major fault bends away to the west following the Aleutian Islands, seismic activity continues north through Alaska along a line that extends over the North Pole toward Svalbard.

This northward path through Alaska is illustrated by the earthquakes on the image below.


“Earthquakes are prominent along the entire border of the North American Plate”, Sam Carana adds, “but they increasingly appear to be taking this shortcut through Alaska and the underlying cause of this is melting of ice in north Canada and on Greenland”.

“This Ring Of Ice spells danger, just like the name Ring Of Fire indicates danger”, Sam Carana concludes. “The name Ring Of Fire warns about possible volcanoes, earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis. The Ring Of Ice seems even more dangerous, since seismic activity could destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments under the Arctic Ocean, and could trigger huge methane eruptions. The fault line running from Greenland to Siberia is the most dangerous area on Earth in that respect”.

From the earlier post High Methane Levels over Laptev Sea







Ukrainian Volunteer Soldiers Fighting In The Country's Civil War 'Paint' A Dismal Picture Of The Conflict

A Pro-Russian separatist walks past a destroyed tank at Savur-Mohyla, a hill east of the city of Donetsk, August 28, 2014. Credit: REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

28 Volunteer Soldiers Trapped In Ukrainian Town By Separatists Escape, Officials Say -- Washington Post

MARIUPOL, Ukraine — A group of Ukrainian volunteer soldiers managed to escape Saturday from Ilovaysk, a southeastern town that has been besieged by pro-Russian separatists for almost a week, Ukrainian officials said.

Ukraine’s interior minister, Arsen Avakov, announced that 28 of the more than 200 fighters trapped in the town had escaped, but the military did not explain how that had been accomplished — or offer details about plans to evacuate the rest of the troops.

“There’s an operation to withdraw our military from there,” spokesman Col. Andriy Lysenko said Saturday. “The major task now is to evacuate our military with the least losses.”

The soldiers have been cornered in the town since Monday, surrounded by separatists they say have been freshly supplied with troops and high-tech weapons from Russia. Food and ammunition have dwindled, and the death toll has been mounting.

The soldiers’ plight and their apparent dispatch into battle with little training and inadequate equipment has sparked scorn across Ukraine in recent days. Volunteer commanders venting on Facebook have denounced what they say is the government’s neglect, and protesters have gathered in the capital, Kiev, chanting “Weapons for patriots.”

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My Comment: These kids are now realizing what war is all about .... more to the point .... they are now probably horrified to find themselves fighting a civil war where the local population hates you, the people you are fighting against are not only determined to kill you but are well equipped to do so, that you and your fellow Ukrainian soldiers are under-equipped and poorly trained, and .... throw in the Russian army .... you are now facing a professional army that has the capacity to completely destroy you if they want to. This is where terms like "canon-fodder" can be easily applied to this mes. As to the 28 volunteer soldiers who escaped .... they are very lucky. 

French President: 'There Is Risk Of War' As Europe Plans Additional Russian Sanctions




French President Says 'There Is Risk Of War' As Europe Plans Additional Russian Sanctions


[From Zero Hedge]



For months Europe had thought that mere verbal (and hollow) threats, populist posturing and propaganda would be enough to force Russia's Putin to back off and withdraw from the endless Ukraine escalation, into a Kremlin cocoon with his tail between his legs. What they didn't anticipate was that Putin would in no way back down (as that would be seen as defeat and weakness by his numerous internal foes), nor would have have to: with Russia providing a third of European gas and with winter approaching, Russia had all the trumps cards from day one. Furthermore, as a result of escalating trade wars it is not Russia's economy that is hurting but Europe, which is on the verge of a historic triple-dip recession, only unlike 2010 and 2012, this time it is Europe's growth dynamo, Germany, itself which is leading the lemmings into the abyss.

Now, finally, Europe has realized that its "strategy" (if it ever had one, red: Obama's 'strategy' on dealing with ISIS) was flawed. It is with this mindset that European Union leaders met in Brussels earlier today and while, as usual, the the threat of new and improved sanctions to Russia was present, suddenly Europe's leaders seem far more "fearful of a new Cold War and self-inflicted harm to their own economies" and instead decided to give Moscow another chance to make peace according to Reuters.
Confirming Europe's realization just how serious events are, and how far down the rabbit hole Europe's bureaucrats have gone, French President Francois Hollande, while stressing that a failure by Russia to reverse a flow of weapons and troops into eastern Ukraine would force the bloc to impose new economic measures i.e., nothing new, it is what he said just after that indicated a dramatic change in rhetoric: "Are we going to let the situation worsen, until it leads to war?" Hollande said at a news conference. "Because that's the risk today. There is no time to waste."

Of course, the problem of hypocrisy promptly emerges, because it is France whose mistral amphibious assault ship is being delivered to Russia over the objections of both Germany (whose own military export complex has quite a few pending RFPs to the Kremlin) and of course Washington. That, and the fact that it is Europe's actions that have led the situation to the bring of another world war. Actions such as the expansion of NATO to Russia's borders which the Kremlin, justifiably, sees as yet another offensive intrusion by the west into purely regional matters, because last time anyone checked, Ukraine was neither a member of NATO nor the European Union.
The paradoxical hypocrisy continued when none other than British PM, who has been teasing with pulling the UK out of Europe for months over the election of Jean-Claude "You have to lie pretty much all the time in Europe" Juncker, also spoke on behalf of a united Europe. From Reuters:




British Prime Minister David Cameron said: "We have to address the completely unacceptable situation of having Russian troops on Ukrainian soil. Countries in Europe shouldn't need to think long before realising just how unacceptable that is. We know that from our history.

"So consequences must follow if that situation continues."


Consequences such as pushing Germany into outright depression, which in turn would lead to a global economic contraction? Sure, go ahead, but keep in mind that once again Putin has done his homework. Unless, of course, the entire premise is to launch another round of global coordinated QEasing, and this time blame the Kremlin as the "scapegoat" for thrusting the world into at least one more year of unprecedented Reverse Robin Hood wealth redistribution by way of central banks.

Meanwhile, Europe's hawkish warmongers had free reign today to tell the world how they really feel:



The president of formerly Soviet Lithuania, an outspoken critic of Vladimir Putin and of EU hesitation to challenge him, called for urgent military supplies to Kiev and a tougher arms embargo on Russia. Dalia Grybauskaite said Moscow, by attacking Ukraine, was effectively "in a state of war against Europe".

But large Western countries are wary of damaging their own economies through sanctions. Those include Germany, Britain and France, as well as Italy, which is heavily dependent on Russian gas and expects to secure the post of EU foreign affairs chief. 

Poroshenko gave short shrift to Moscow's denials by denouncing the past week's incursion of thousands of troops with hundreds of armoured vehicles and said he expected the summit to order the European Commission to prepare a new set of sanctions.

But, like Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, he used their joint news conference to stress a will to find a political solution to a crisis that President Putin blames on Kiev's drive to turn the ex-Soviet state away from its former master Moscow and toward a Western alliance with the EU and NATO.

He said he was not looking for foreign military intervention and expected progress toward peace as early as Monday - because failure could push the conflict to a point of no return: "Let's not try to spark the new flame of war in Europe," he said.

Barroso also warned of the risk of a "point of no return" in stressing that EU leaders wanted to defuse the confrontation with their nuclear-armed neighbour.

"It makes no sense to have ... a new Cold War," Barroso said. Further conflict would hurt all of Europe, he said, adding that sanctions were meant to push Moscow to talk. His Commission already had prepared a number of options for further measures.


Europe may be shocked to learn that the Cold War never went away, but simply was on hiatus until the Russian bear and the Chinese dragon felt strong enough they can finally ascend to global superpower status, in the process sweeping away the insolvent west, and its reserve currency status.
All that said, no pun intended, there was nothing actually decided today in Brussels, nor was any action taken, as is generically the case in Europe. In fact, the only thing that did happen is that as was known in advance, moments ago Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk replaced Haiku-spewing, unelected Gollum lookalike Herman Van Rompuy, a well-known figurehead from the days when Europe was actively fighting for its survival.


To summarize: more worthless power moves, more hollow rhetoric and threats, more verbal escalation; nothing else.
In fact, the most notable comment all day today came from Hungarian Premier Viktor Orban who said that EU sanctions on Russia haven’t worked and it’s "self-delusion" to think they’ll help resolve the crisis in Ukraine.
Well, if there is anything Europe, and its allegedly unlimited but certainly very limited amount of political capital spent to preserve an unsustainable, artificial union, excels in it is "self-delusion."






Editor's Note

Taking some badly needed R&R today. Blogging will return later tonight.

Saudi Arabia's King Issues A Warning To The West; The Jihadists Are Going To Strike You Next

Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al-Saud speaks before a meeting with the US Secretary of State at his private residence on June 27, 2014 in the Red Sea city of Jeddah (AFP Photo/Brendan Smialowski)

Saudi King Warns West Will Be Jihadists' Next Target -- AFP

Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) (AFP) - King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has warned that the West will be the next target of the jihadists sweeping through Syria and Iraq, unless there is "rapid" action.

"If we ignore them, I am sure they will reach Europe in a month and America in another month," he said in remarks quoted on Saturday by Asharq al-Awsat daily and Saudi-backed Al-Arabiya television station.

"Terrorism knows no border and its danger could affect several countries outside the Middle East," said the king who was speaking at a welcoming ceremony on Friday for new ambassadors, including a new envoy from Saudi ally the United States.

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My Comment: In my opinion he is probably right .... but the President of The United States has a different point of view .... Seeking to Ease Worries, Obama Says the World Has Always Been 'Messy' -- New York Times

What A U.S. Military Intervention In Syria Really Means

Badra Mamet/Reuters

What Going To War In Syria Would Really Mean For The U.S. -- Conor Friedersdorf, The Atlantic

A brutal dictator, a violent terrorist group, and the morally fraught tradeoff that interventionists face

Attacking Adolf Hitler's Germany benefited moral monster Joseph Stalin's Soviet Union. That inescapable fact of World War II doesn't mean it wasn't worth fighting Nazis. Under the circumstances, allying with Stalin to beat Hitler was the right call. But the consequences of that fraught alliance were themselves horrific. To ignore its downsides would be to misunderstand the real choices America faced.

Today in Syria, the United States faces another set of harrowing tradeoffs. Syria's leader, Bashar al-Assad, is a murderous dictator. The various rebel groups trying to wrest the country from his control include ISIS, a radical Sunni militia. To strike Assad, as Obama threatened to do last summer, would help ISIS. To strike ISIS, as the Obama administration is threatening to do right now, would help Assad. Those are the unsavory choices confronting all who favor intervention. And while the prospect of aiding and abetting Assad or ISIS doesn't decisively prove that intervention is unwise, it is at least a factor that Americans ought to confront with open eyes, rather than pretending the tradeoff away.

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My Comment: There are now no good options when it comes to Syria. This is a conflict that must run it's course .... and it now looks like it is going to be a few years of warfare before there is even a prospect of an end to the conflict.

Update: Here is an interesting post on a Syrian rebels story of fighting a war that he has grown weary of .... A Weary Rebel Retreats to Fight Another Day (New York Times)